Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Betting Odds August 29
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies clash at Chase Field. The Phillies are firmly entrenched in the 2nd NL Wildcard spot while the Diamondbacks are all but eliminated from playoff contention.
| Monday, August 29 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Arizona Diamondbacks +152 vs Philadelphia Phillies -180 |
| Runline: | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105) / Phillies -1.5 (-115) |
| Total: | 8.5 Runs (Over -120 / Under +100) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ |
| Weather: | Retractable Roof |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Philadelphia Phillies in the first of a three game set. The Fightin’ Phils just finished an 11 game home stand where they went 7-4, against the Mets, Reds and Pirates.
The Diamondbacks completed a quick five game road trip, splitting two games with the Royals, and taking three from the White Sox. Ranger Suarez goes against Madison Bumgarner, first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM EDT at Chase Field.
While the Diamondbacks won’t make the playoffs this year, they’ve exceeded the expectations of most baseball analysts at the start of the season.
They’re 59-67 and on pace to win 75 or so games – much better than last year’s 51 wins. The Phillies have the second wildcard spot at 72-56, just 2.5 games ahead of the Padres. We know this team can hit, but can the bullpen hold up down the stretch?
Suarez Struggled in Only Start Against Diamondbacks
Ranger Suarez isn’t a household name when it comes to pitchers, but he’s been a solid part of the Phillies starting rotation. He was a relief pitcher for Philadelphia until 2021, where he had 39 appearances and 12 starts.
This year he’s been in the starting rotation all year, and put up a solid 3.38 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 22 starts and 120.0 innings. The southpaw allowed 45 walks and just 10 home runs on the year, which is less than one bomb every nine innings.
Suarez has also been pretty consistent this year, as he’s given up just three earned runs or less in 20 of his 22 starts. And he’s pitched much better on the road than at home, with a 6-1 record, a 2.41 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP in 11 starts and 67.1 innings.
Suarez has faced the Arizona lineup one time this year, didn’t make it out of the fifth inning and gave up four hits, four runs (two earned), four walks and struck out two. But he’s pitched much better in his last seven games, with a 2-1 record, a 1.54 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 41.0 innings.
The Phillies are a solid hitting team as they’re 8th in team OPS, 6th in home runs and 9th in batting average. And they’re 3rd in OPS versus left-handed pitchers the last 30 days.
The big question for this team is: Can their bullpen hold leads late in games? The answer to this question will probably determine whether they make the postseason or not.
Diamondbacks Call up Top Prospect Carroll
After 14 years in the major leagues, it seems that Father Time is catching up with Madison Bumgarner. MadBum had a great month of April, but from May onwards the wheels seem to have fallen off, and he’s had a 4.00 or higher monthly ERA.
While his stuff isn’t as good as it used to be, he still has that quirky delivery that can make it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball out of his hand.
After most of a season where the bats have struggled to produce consistently, the Arizona offense seems to have caught fire over the last week. In the last seven games, the D-Backs have scored a combined 41 runs. However, they haven’t hit southpaws that well as they’re 29th in OPS versus lefties the last 30 days.
For the year, the Snakes are 21st in team OPS, 14th in home runs and 27th in batting average. Although their hitting has been inconsistent and the bullpen hasn’t been great, they’ve gotten enough big hits to get 59 wins. They’re also calling up their #1 prospect for tonight’s game, outfielder Corbin Carroll.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
In handicapping this game, the visitors have the edge in starting pitching and hitting, and a somewhat better bullpen in terms of ERA – Philly is 16th and Arizona is 25th – I have a hard time trusting either team’s pen.
While Arizona has outplayed expectations this year, I’m not sure they have enough pop at the plate. That’s why I’ll take the Phillies on the moneyline.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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