Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction and Betting Odds August 11
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Thursday’s Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates clash at Chase Field. Both the Diamondbacks and Pirates sit in 4th place in their respective divisions.
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| Thursday, August 11 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Arizona Diamondbacks -170 vs Pittsburgh Pirates +143 |
| Runline: | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+115) / Pirates +1.5 (-135) |
| Total: | 8 Runs (Over -100 / Under -120) |
| Game Time: | 3:40pm ET / 12:40pm PT |
| Where: | Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ |
| Weather: | Retractable Roof |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Analysis
The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field in the last of a three game series. It’s a battle of right-handers as J.T. Brubaker takes the mound for Pittsburgh, and Merrill Kelly toes the rubber for Arizona. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 PM EDT.
The Bucs have a 44-66 record, tied with the Reds for last in the NL Central, while the D-Backs have a better-than-expected record of 50-59, good for 4th in the NL West.
Brubaker Disappointing Bucs
It’s been a tough year for Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker with a 2-10 record, 4.49 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. However, the right-hander has pitched much better on the road than at PNC Park, a full 1.50 ERA lower at 3.90.
He faced the Snakes earlier this year on June 3rd, going 4.0 innings and giving up eight hits, five earned runs, three home runs and one walk.
Brubaker has limited damage from the long ball, giving up only 11 bombs all season. However, walks have been an issue as he’s allowed 44 free passes, which comes to 3.67 walks per nine innings – not terrible, but higher than you’d like to see.
The Pirates have struggled at the plate this season, and haven’t given their starters much run support. Against right-handers they have the 3rd lowest OPS and team batting average, that doesn’t bode well going against one of the best righties in the National League.
Arizona Aiming for Series Win
Merrill Kelly has been one of Arizona’s best starters in 2022. He’s accrued a 10-5 record with a 2.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, and his last seven starts have been of the quality variety – going at least 6.0 innings and giving up a combined eight earned runs.
Control has been excellent as he’s only given up 39 walks and eight home runs on the year. Kelly is also an “innings eater” who averages 6.0 frames per start, and the D-Backs need him to go deep in games, given their less-than-reliable bullpen.
Arizona hasn’t been great at the plate this year, either. They’re 22nd in team OPS and 21st in OPS versus right-handed pitching at home. The long ball has bailed them out on offense, as they’re 14th in team home runs on the season.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
The home team has the edge in starting pitching, and both teams’ bullpens are in the bottom 10 for ERA. I think Kelly should keep the Bucs’ bats in check through the first part of the game, and the D-Backs will find a way to scratch out at least a run or two early. That’s why I’ll take Arizona on the 1st 5 Innings run line.
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 Innings Run Line (-0.5)
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, August 11
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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