Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies NLDS Predictions and Odds | Game 1
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 Preview
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies are familiar foes in the NL East, but these division rivals have not met in the playoffs in the last 30 years. Will the Braves continue their march toward back-to-back World Series trophies? Sportsmemo handicapper Eric Pauly offers his Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 betting preview.
| Tuesday, October 11 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Atlanta Braves -205 vs Philadelphia Phillies +170 |
| Runline: | Braves -1.5 (+115) / Phillies +1.5 (-135) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -125 / Under +105) |
| Game Time: | 1:07pm ET / 10:07am PT |
| Where: | Truist Park in Atlanta |
| Weather: | 71* and Clear with Winds Blowing from Right to Left |
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Analysis
As the No. 2 seed in the National League, the Braves had a bye in the first round and the Phillies defeated the Cardinals on the road in back-to-back games. Atlanta won the regular season series 11-8, and that’s been a common theme over the last decade. The Braves have won the regular season series in eight of the last 11 years (one tie), holding a 109-90 advantage over the Phillies.
The Phightin’ Phils
The Phillies earned the National League’s last playoff spot, but certainly didn’t play like it in the opening round against the Cardinals. Philadelphia out-scored the Cardinals 8-3 across two games in St Louis to earn the mini sweep.
The Phillies have a great starting pitching staff and a strong lineup, so they will be hard to eliminate even as underdogs. Their bullpen is not great, but if their starters can go 7+ innings and their offense can score runs, I can see the Phillies beating the Braves.
Lefty Ranger Suarez will make the start for the Phillies tonight on the road. Suarez has started against the Braves five times in the regular season and he was very impressive down the stretch of 2022.
On the road this season, Suarez has a 3.20 ERA, a .231 batting average against, a 3.77 FIP, and a 1.20 WHIP. The Phillies are 9-7 in Suarez’s road starts this season, but the Phillies are 0-6 in his last six road starts. This will be an intriguing matchup as Suarez has been great at times but also shaky at times.
Back-to-back Braves?
The Braves won the NL East in improbable fashion and they were able to secure a bye in the first round of the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how Atlanta comes out in this game, because the Braves were absolutely rolling at the end of the regular season. Will they pick up right where they left off after a six-day break?
Lefty Max Fried will make the start for the Braves tonight at home against their NL East rivals. Fried pitched against the Phillies four times this season and he dominated them the last two times he faced the Phillies.
At home this season, Fried has a 2.42 ERA, a .237 batting average against, a .342 slugging percentage against, a 3.04 FIP, and a 1.11 WHIP. The Braves went 13-5 in Fried’s home starts this season.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies finished the regular season with the fourth-best OPS against lefties and the ninth-best OPS on the road. I believe the Phillies will make this a game against the Braves. This team has all the momentum and they have nothing to lose against the dominant defending champs. I expect the Phillies to cover the 1.5-run spread in this matchup to open the NLDS. Play Philadelphia on the +1.5 runline, which is widely available at -135.
First Pitch | MLB Playoff Predictions
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. The Braves won 11 of their 19 regular season games with the Phillies, but how do these NL East rivals stack up in a 5-game series?
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB playoff moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Tuesday’s baseball games, including this Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Sportsmemo handicapper Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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