Free MLB Picks Today – 5 MLB Games Predictions for 7/17/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 17

DODGERS (-110) at ORIOLES (-110), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 9

 Two prized rookie pitching prospects square off at Camden Yards as Emmet Sheehan (2-0, 4.35 ERA) squares off against Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 7.35). Even though the Orioles have won eight straight games, this is a pick’em because Rodriguez had a rough first run in the majors. He had a WHIP of 1.74 and his May ERA was 11.14. The 23-year-old gave up 11 home runs in 21 innings, so Baltimore will be holding its breath that he can make it through four or five innings without being lit up. The Birds have to be cautiously optimistic that he can be a key figure during their stretch run since he put up a 1.69 ERA and an 0.99 WHIP over 37 innings in Triple-A, allowing just two earned runs over his last 19 frames.
Sheehan has made just one career road start, pitching five decent innings in a 14-3 win at Colorado on June 29. He comes off his roughest outing, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings against the Pirates, walking four and striking out four. With Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler sidelined, Sheehan and fellow rookie Bobby Miller are going to be crucial to winning their 10 NL West title in 11 seasons. Sheehan may not have to face OFs Cedric Mullins (quad tightness) and Aaron Hicks (back soreness) as both were scratched against Miami on Sunday. 2B Adam Frazier and OF Colton Cowser were each hit by Marlins pitches, so keep an eye on the Orioles lineup before making a move on this game.

THE PLAY: Dodgers Player Prop Pick:

Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman is 1-for-10 since the All-Star break but is likely to snap out of that funk against Rodriguez. Back the over on Freeman’s hits + runs + RBI prop.

Giants vs Reds Prediction

GIANTS (-160) at REDS (+135), 7:10 p.m. ET, Total: 10
 Cincinnati went on a 23-6 run before running into the Brewers right before the All-Star break and went 1-5 their NL Central rivals. Worse yet, they were shut out three times and managed more than three runs only once, suffering through a 28-inning scoreless streak. The Reds bullpen blew a 3-2 eighth-inning lead on Sunday in a 4-3 loss, so we’ll see how a very young group responds to adversity. Rookie southpaw Brandon Williamson (1-2, 5.21) gets the ball as Cincy tries to end a four-game skid and has shown a tendency to be wild thus far, although he’s surrendered just two runs in eight July innings, walking just two while striking out nine. It would be big for the Reds if he’s able to eat some innings and supply a boost. The Giants rank in the bottom-10 in MLB in OPS and home runs against lefties, so this could be a favorable matchup for Williamson.
San Francisco swept Pittsburgh over the weekend, has won five straight and opens this four-game set by handing the ball to Logan Webb (8-7, 3.41). The veteran righty has struck out 21, walked only two and given up just two runs in a pair of July home starts. He has a 2.02 ERA at Oracle Park and a 4.24 ERA on the road, so laying this much juice isn’t ideal. However, current Reds are just 3-for-23 against Webb, who will look to keep electric rookie Elly De La Cruz in a slump (1-for-16 and counting) as he faces him for the first time.

THE PLAY: Giants vs Reds Prediction F5 Bet

THE PLAY: I’d keep the bullpens out of this, but have been impressed with Williamson’s poise on the mound and trust Webb enough to ride the first-five under.

Marlins at Cardinals Prediction:

MARLINS (+105) at CARDINALS (-125), 7:45 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5
 The Marlins suffered back-to-back one-run losses in Baltimore on Saturday and Sunday, which is a big deal since they were an MLB-best 21-6 in one-run games before the break. Miami has a really tough schedule the rest of the way and may be due some regression, so it’s important that lefty Jesus Luzardo (8-5, 3.29) gets them on the board post-All-Star. The Fish have won in four of his last five outings – all quality starts in which he worked at least six innings and allowed two or fewer runs.
The Cardinals rank around the middle of the road in MLB in most hitting categories against southpaws. They’re bringing up the rear in the NL Central and likely to be sellers at the trade deadline unless they can go on a significant run in the next few weeks in 14 games against teams above them in the Wild Card standings. Miles Mikolas (5-5, 4.12) has worked 10 consecutive shutout innings, last giving up a run in a 5-4 loss in Miami on July 3. He’s 3-1 in his career against the Marlins with a 3.16 ERA.

THE PLAY: Marlins vs Cardinals Prediction:

Paul Goldschmidt has gone 3-for-6 with a double in his career against Luzardo and went 4-for-9 with a homer and three RBIs in this weekend’s wins against Washington. Whether the former MVP ends up on the trade block or not, it’s clear he’s improving his stock. Ride the over on Goldschmidt’s hits + runs + RBI prop.

Yankees at Angels Prediction:

YANKEES (+100) at ANGELS (-120), 9:38 p.m. ET, Total: 9
Both of these teams come off demoralizing losses after blowing late leads to lose series finales. The Angels, who rallied for an improbable 13-12 win over Houston on Saturday night, gave up four runs in the ninth against the Astros on Sunday and fell 9-8. Their bullpen is spent, so Griffin Canning (6-4, 4.62) will be counted on to pitch deep into this one. L.A. has dropped three of his last four starts and has seen him surrender nine runs in the last 8.2 innings since getting the win in the team’s historic 25-1 conquest of Colorado on June 24. Shohei Ohtani, the pitcher, is dealing with blister issues, but the hitter is feeling just fine, smacking his 34th home run and drilling the ball all over the field.
New York blew a 3-1 8th-inning lead in Colorado, squandering a great start from Gerrit Cole, and also led 7-5 entering the 11th before the bullpen imploded in giving up two homers in an 8-7 loss. Luis Severino (1-4, 7.38) will look to snap out of an awful slump that has seen him get lit up for at least four runs in six of his last seven outings, including 14 earned runs over 6.2 July innings. He’ll work exclusively out of the stretch against the Angels because he fears he’s been tipping pitches. Ohtani and Mike Moustakas have each taken Severino deep. Current Angels are 5-for-15 against the Dominican righty.

THE PLAY: Given how the ball was carrying in Anaheim on Sunday night and how rough both starting pitchers and bullpens have looked since the All-Star break, backing the over on nine runs has to be the move here.

Twins at Mariners Prediction:

TWINS (+110) at MARINERS (-130), 9:40 p.m. ET, Total: 7
This is a crucial series for both teams, who find themselves in different places despite similar records. Minnesota is 48-46 but leads the AL Central. Seattle clawed back to .500 with a shutout win over Detroit on Sunday but dropped the series and came out of the gate suffering through the same offensive issues that hurt them throughout the season’s first few months. Logan Gilbert (7-5, 3.66) has an 0.56 ERA through two July starts and has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 13 outings, winning six of his last nine decisions and lowering his WHIP for the season to 0.98. He gave up just one run over 11 innings against Minnesota last season, striking out 13 and walking two in a pair of wins. Current Twins are just 5-for-39 (.128) against Gilbert.
All-Star Sonny Gray (4-3, 2.89) gets the ball for the visitors and will look to rebound from his ugliest start of the season since Baltimore touched him up for six runs in six innings on July 8. He pitched a scoreless inning for the AL last Tuesday, so maybe he was able to hit a reset button, but the Twins are 3-9 in his last dozen starts since May, so this is an important game for him. Gray hasn’t completed seven innings in his last 13 outings after doing so twice in his first five starts. Minnesota is 6-4 over its last 10 contests, but the wins came against the Royals and A’s, while the losses all came against the Orioles.

THE PLAY: Twins at Mariners Prediction

THE PLAY: Twins DH Byron Buxton saw his average dip to .199 after another 0-for-4 effort on Sunday, his fourth in a row. He’s mired in a 1-for-22 slump and went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts against Gilbert in their meetings last season. Fade the slumping 2022 All-Star by riding the under on Buxton’s hits + runs + RBI prop..

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