Free MLB Picks Today – 5 MLB Games Predictions for 7/7/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Report for Friday, July 7

CUBS (+150) at YANKEES (-175), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

New York’s biggest offseason acquisition, lefty starter Carlos Rodon, will finally debut after missing the first few months with a forearm strain, followed by a chronic back issue. The Yankees invested $162 million in the free agent and are eager to work him in, but it’s unlikely that they’ll work him more than five innings with the All-Star break on deck.

He struck out eight over 3.2 shutout innings in his most recent minor league start at the high-A level but will obviously face a tougher test against the Cubs. Former Yank Jameson Taillon gets the ball for Chicago in this interleague series opener and has really struggled. He’s given up at least one home run in five straight starts and the Cubs have only won in two of his 14 outings. He’s primarily a fly ball pitcher, so the Yankees could utilize the long ball against him.

THE PLAY: Cubs vs Yankees Prop Pick:

Anthony Rizzo is the player to target in any total bases, home run or hits + runs + RBI props. The former Cub has owned Taillon throughout their careers, coming into this one 10-for-22 with a pair of home runs. The first baseman has done his fair share of striking out lately, so he’ll undoubtedly be thrilled to see Taillon on the mound.

Reds vs Brewers Prediction

REDS (+105) at BREWERS (-125), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8
 Reds rookie pitcher Andrew Abbott has lived up to the hype over his first six starts, winning four outright and sporting a 1.21 ERA and an 0.88 WHIP. He struck out 12 in his longest big league outing to date against the Padres last time out, getting a no-decision but working into the eighth inning.

Cincinnati has yet to lose in any of his starts, but the Brewers will become the first team to get a second look at the 24-year-old lefty, who debuted against them with six innings of 1-hit ball on June 5 in a dominant debut. He’s definitely getting respect from the books since the Crew is a relatively short favorite despite the presence of ace Corbin Burnes on the mound.

Milwaukee has been in good form too, finishing off a split with Cubs after claiming four of five against the Mets and Pirates. Burnes is just 6-5 on the season but gave up just two runs on one hit on July 1 in Pittsburgh. He hasn’t faced stud rookie Elly De La Cruz yet but has fared well against the Reds throughout his career, coming in 2-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 15 career games against them.

THE PLAY: Reds vs Brewers Prediction 

Playing the first-five under and keeping the bullpens out of it looks awfully tempting given Abbott’s early returns and Burnes’ ability to find a groove on the mound. Opponents are hitting .213 against Milwaukee’s ace this season. Backing the high side on Abbott’s strikeout prop is also worth looking into since the rookie has notched 30 over his last three starts.

Mariners at Astros Prediction:

MARINERS (+105) at ASTROS (-125), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8

A pitchers’ duel could be in the cards for this second of a four-game set between AL West teams at Minute Maid Park. Mariners ace Luis Castillo is just 5-6 but has a WHIP of 1.07 and has largely been a victim of a lack of run support. He’s given up home runs in five straight outings but looks to be settling in, striking out 13 batters and only walking one in helping Seattle beat the Nationals and Rays in his last two starts, ending a run of four consecutive defeats.

The Astros are sending talented young righty Hunter Brown to the mound in a bounce-back spot on the heels of his shortest outing of the season on July 1 as the Rangers roughed him up for 10 hits over four innings in a 5-2 loss.

Brown has only back-to-back starts once in what has been a successful season. Current Mariners are just 1-for-4 against him.

THE PLAY: Mariners vs Astros Prediction:

First-five under call could be the move here, as could the over on Brown’s strikeout prop since he’s registered at least six K’s in seven of nine outings. It’s also worth knowing that Houston’s Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu are a combined 1-for-17 against Castillo.

Mets at Padres Prediction:

METS (+105) at PADRES (-125), 9:40 p.m. ET, Total: 7.5/8
The Mets remain out on the West Coast after a successful stint in Phoenix and have had a strong start to July. 

Justin Verlander will get the ball in this series opener and is beginning to overcome an injury-riddled start to his stint with the Mets, allowing just one run over his last 10 innings of work. The 40-year-old veteran has some tough road splits however, coming in 1-2 with a 5.67 ERA outside of Queens as opposed to a 2.19 ERA at Citi Field. It’s a short sample size to be sure, but worth watching before blindly pulling the trigger on the under in this matchup against Yu Darvish.

Verlander has fared well against San Diego’s big guns, as Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and Gary Sanchez are a combined 15-for-96 (.156) with just two home runs against him. Darvish has had a rocky stretch, working seven innings only once in his last 11 outings while allowing more than three earned runs in five of his last seven starts.

He’s been inconsistent and sports a 5-6 record and a 4.84 ERA. The Mets beat him 5-0 on April 10, handing Darvish his first loss of the season by scoring five runs in 6.1 innings and riding Max Scherzer. New York SS Francisco Lindor delivered the big hit that knocked Darvish out, while Starling Marte has gone 8-for-20 against him and has been solid for his team after a miserable start to 2023.

THE PLAY:  Mets at Padres Prediction:

Backing Marte to top his runs, hits and RBIs prop looks like the top play here. New York’s right fielder homered on July 4 and has done his best work on the road this season.

Rockies at Giants Prediction:

ROCKIES at GIANTS, 10:15 p.m. ET, Total: TBD
Colorado sends Austin Gomber to the bump and hopes he can continue his recent form since he closed June in good form, allowing two earned runs in win over the Angels and Tigers. The lefty has a 6.64 ERA and hasn’t fared great on the road, coming in 2-4 outside of Denver.

The Rockies have only won in three of his eight starts outside Coors Field. Austin Slater will almost certainly be in the mix for San Francisco since he’s 9-for-15 in his career against Gomber, registering some pretty significant Austin-on-Austin crime with a pair of triples and three doubles. 

Wilmer Flores is also potentially worth backing against Gomber since he’s reached safely in his last three games, coming in 5-for-8, and has gone 5-for-15 in his career against Gomber. Mike Yastrzemski is someone worth staying from since he’s gone 1-for-11 against Gomber (.091) with four strikeouts.
The Giants hadn’t named a starter for this series opener against their NL West rival as of Thursday night but were able to snap a 4-game skid with a 2-0 win over Seattle on Wednesday. 

Anthony DeSclafani was originally scheduled to pitch but admitted to being fatigued in lasting just three innings and surrendering three home runs against the Mets in a 4-1 loss on Saturday before giving way to Sean Manaea. Following five June starts in which he ended up with a 6.65 ERA DeSclafani admitted that he’s “running on fumes a little bit” and landed on the injured list with shoulder fatigue. Manaea and Jakob Junis may ultimately wind up handling the pitching duties for the host Giants.

THE PLAY: Rockies at Giants Prediction

Rockies OF Kris Bryant is 3-for-4 with a pair of homers against Manaea and would definitely be worth a play since the Giants will likely utilize him to eat some innings. The ‘over’ may also be worth investing in, as would a runs + hits + RBI prop involving Slater.

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