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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 28

Phillies at Pirates Prediction

PHILLIES (-160) at PIRATES (+135), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh square off for the first time all season in the first of six matchups and the only three at PNC Park. Expect to see a great crowd in what should be an excellent pitching matchup between Pirates ace Mitch Keller (9-6, 4.01 ERA) and one of the Phils’ best in Zack Wheeler (7-5, 3.88). Keller is coming off two brutal starts since working an inning in the All-Star, surrendering 14 earned runs on 19 hits and five homers over 11 innings in losses to the Guardians and Angels. After improving to 8-2 on June 11, Keller is 1-4 and the Pirates are 1-6 in his outings. He’s 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA in July, but much of the damage has come on the road. Keller is still 5-2 with a 3.61 home ERA, which gives Pittsburgh a chance to be a live ‘dog on Friday night. Current Phillies are hitting an astounding .443 against him as a unit with five homers in 61 career at-bats, and that’s with him pitching well in last season’s lone matchup against them, allowing one run over six innings. Most key Phils have gaudy numbers against Keller.

The Phillies went 6-1 against Pittsburgh last season, with Wheeler picking up a victory by pitching seven innings of two-run ball, surrendering just three hits. He’s never lost to the Pirates (3-0, 2.30) and is 2-0 at PNC Park. Philadelphia had won seven straight games that Wheeler started before failing to score in his last start, falling 1-0. He’s given up three or fewer runs in six of his last eight outings. Current Pirates are batting just .240 against Wheeler, with Andrew McCutchen having the most experience (3-for-15, 1 HR).

THE PLAY – Phillies at Pirates F5 Bet

Phillies at Pirates F5 Bet: Keller’s struggles of late and his rough history against most Phillies make it tough to back the home team. Wheeler hasn’t been lights out, but Philadelphia has managed to have success most times he’s taken the mound this season, sporting a 13-7 mark over his 20 starts. Laying the half-run in the first five innings looks like a solid play.

Angels at Blue Jays Prediction

ANGELS (+170) at BLUE JAYS (-200), 7:07 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

The Angels are rolling and have decided to keep Shohei Ohtani and chase a playoff berth despite him becoming a free agent next season. He improved his already sturdy MVP chances with a historic Thursday where he pitched a complete game shutout and hit two home runs in two ends of a doubleheader against the Tigers. Unfortunately, he cramped up immediately after hitting the second one and may get a night off on the heels of a busy day even though travel time from Detroit to Toronto is short. Lucas Giolito (6-6, 3.79) will start for L.A. for the first time after being acquired late Wednesday night, so we’ll see how he handles a hectic week. It helps that he’s pitching on normal rest and is coming off his third excellent start over his last four outings, blanking the Twins over five frames while striking out nine. Giolito just faced Toronto on July 4, giving up just two runs in six innings in a quality start while getting a no-decision in a 4-3 loss. He’s got a 5.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Jays.

Kevin Gausman (7-5, 3.18) had pitched in five straight wins from late May through most of June but the Jays haven’t won in any of his last four starts, mostly due to a lack of run support. Through three starts, he’s got a 4.24 July ERA, his highest of any month. Gausman has a 2.58 home ERA, but probably shouldn’t be this heavily favored if Ohtani winds up being in the lineup. That said, Ohtani is 0-for-6 against the Toronto righty in their career meetings. Mike Moustakas (5-for-15, 2 HR) and Eduardo Escobar (6-for-27, 1 HR) have the most experience against Gausman, who leads the AL in strikeouts (162), ranking second in all of MLB behind Atlanta’s Spencer Strider. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has is batting .500 over his last eight plate appearances against Gausman.

THE PLAY – Blue Jays Strikeout Prop:

There’s a lot of uncertainty entering this matchup, but it’s probably a safe bet that Gausman is going to add to his strikeout tally. The Blue Jays ace has 19 K’s in 59 plate appearances against current Angels, who have hit just .203 against him. He’s had at least nine K’s in nine of his 20 starts, so ride the over on Gausman’s strikeout prop.

Brewers at Braves Prediction

BREWERS (+155) at BRAVES (-185), 7:20 p.m. ET, Total: 10

These division leaders could fortify teams further at the deadline since both are looking like solid playoff teams. Atlanta’s Max Fried and Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff are expected back from injuries soon to fortify their respective starting rotations. This series should be a fun one since these teams may see each other in the postseason and just played a very competitive series last weekend. Atlanta won two of three but all the games were close, and the team with baseball’s top mark has struggled some lately, winning just three of its last 10. The bullpen let them down on Wednesday and Yonny Chirinos (4-4, 4.02), isn’t the ideal option to end a mini losing streak. He’s likely to be the bulk guy since he hasn’t pitched since July 16, but the Braves are 1-6 in the last seven games he’s appeared in.

Milwaukee added a bat in veteran Carlos Santana, acquired from the Pirates for a minor-leaguer. Adrian Houser (3-2, 3.86) has a WHIP of 1.51 and a negative WAR in two of the past three seasons, but he’s been surprisingly solid lately. His last start bordered on stunning since he struck out 10 Braves over six innings, contributing to a 4-3 upset last Saturday. He’s given up three or fewer earned runs in all four of his starts since a short June bullpen stint. Before we get too excited about a Houser breakout, know that Ronald Acuna, Jr. (5-for-10) and Austin Riley (5-for-13) have excelled against him in career meetings.

THE PLAY – Braves Player Prop Pick:

Acuna is batting .500 against Houser and looking to come out of a mini-slump since he went 0-for-6 in Atlanta’s two losses in Boston. Acuna went 4-for-13 in Milwaukee last weekend and should bounce back here to continue what looks like an unstoppable ride to this year’s NL MVP Award. Back Acuna, Jr. to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.

Rays at Astros Prediction

RAYS (-115) at ASTROS (+105), 8:10 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

The Astros failed miserably in their attempt to tie the Rangers for the AL West lead on Thursday, falling 13-5 as ace Framber Valdez imploded. That sets this up as a battle of second-place team with fantastic records, and both teams are looking to rebound from ugly losses but have to get back on track against quality starters. Tampa Bay is just 2-8 over its last 10 and will be looking to ace Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.89) to stop the bleeding. Since coming back from a 15-day IL stint due to back tightness, the Rays are 0-2 in his starts and he’s surrendered seven runs in 10 innings. This is a tough lineup for him to rebound against since current Astros are hitting .359 against McClanhan. Jose Altuve, who just returned from injury, is 4-for-5 and Jeremy Pena is 3-for-5 with a homer, but Yordan Alvarez, also back from an oblique issue, and Alex Bregman, are a combined 0-for-8. McClanahan is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.00 against Houston.

The Astros will turn to Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.32), who has had rocky starts in six of his last seven outings and hasn’t won since moving to 7-1 on June 3. He’s had plenty of no-decisions, but comes off a six-walk effort in an upset loss in Oakland and got rocked in both Texas and St. Louis, allowing 14 runs in 8.1 innings in both road starts. Javier walked five Mets in 2.1 innings and was pulled after giving up four runs, but he’s largely been good at Minute Maid Park this season (4-1, 3.00), continuing a trend that’s been the case his whole career. Javier is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA over three starts against Tampa Bay, whose current hitters are collectively hitting .158 against him. We’ll see if Javier can gain confidence from that past success and being back home to rebound from a rough stretch.

THE PLAY – Astros Player Prop Pick:

Altuve is batting .800 against McClanahan, but with him just returning to action, it’s Pena we’re interested in backing. The reigning World Series MVP has had a disappointing season but went 3-for-8 over the last two games against the Rangers and may be finally warming up. We’ll go with the over on Pena’s hits + runs + RBI prop.

Red Sox at Giants Prediction

RED SOX (+130) at GIANTS (-150), 10:15 p.m. ET, Total: 7.5

This interleague series is the only time these teams meet this season, and both are hoping towards a big weekend since they’re currently in the thick of some crowded Wild Card races. The Red Sox hit the road on a four-game win streak, getting them all by multiple runs, so we’ll see how traveling across the country to the West Coast affects their rhythm. Kutter Crawford (4-5, 4.04) will look to get the trip off on a positive note but started Boston’s most recent loss, struggling in lasting just four innings against the Mets and allowing four runs in a 5-4 defeat. He struck out a career-best nine Cubs and allowed just one hit in six innings in his first start out of the All-Star break and comes in 2-1 in July, so there’s hope he can give the Sox what they need. This will be his first time facing any Giants.

Logan Webb (8-8, 3.48) is looking to rebound from a brutal outing last Saturday where he couldn’t get out of the second inning against the Nationals, giving up six runs in a 10-1 loss. He’s been great at Oracle Park (4-3, 2.02), and had been sharp in July prior to his brutal start, so this might be a great bounce-back opportunity since he had a 28:2 strikeout-to-walk ration in three outings prior to taking the mound in D.C. Justin Turner (4-for-15, 4 doubles), and Adam Duvall (3-for-12) have some success in their experience against Webb. San Francisco has won two in a row after dropping six consecutive games and is 5-1 in its last six home games.

THE PLAY – Giants at Red Sox F5 RL Pick:

We’re going to give Webb the benefit of the doubt that his effort against the Nats was an aberration, looking for a return to form at home. This is a tough spot for Crawford to open a road trip, particularly after traveling cross-country. It may take some time for the Red Sox to find their sea legs. Back San Francisco laying a half-run on the first-five run line.

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