Free MLB Picks Today – Five MLB Games Predictions for 8/1/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 1

Rays at Yankees Prediction

RAYS (-110) at YANKEES (-110), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

New York was expected to start Domingo German on Monday, scratched him due to armpit discomfort, and then proceeded to bring him in out of the bullpen to pitch five scoreless innings after they had already fallen behind 5-1 thanks to rookie spot starter Jhony Brito’s struggles. Things are a mess in the Bronx, and GM Brian Cashman said getting Aaron Judge, Nestor Cortes and Jonathan Loaisiga is the equivalent of a trade deadline haul, which means a big splash isn’t likely. Starting August in last place isn’t what anyone expected, but there’s still time to turn things around with a big next two months required. Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75 ERA) finally picked up his first win last time out, allowing a single run in beating the Mets to split this season’s Subway Series. The Yankees’ top offseason acquisition hasn’t delivered many returns, but if his team is going to do anything of substance in his first season, he’s going to have to thrive going forward. Rodon has a 2.45 ERA over 11 innings at home thus far and has held current Rays to a 4-for-17 showing at the plate, so there’s some hope he’ll be able to pitch well enough to help even his series.

Tampa Bay made a splash by adding another starter in adding Aaron Civale from Cleveland, allowing it to send down ineffective rookie Taj Bradley. The hope is that Civale will hit the ground running as well as Tuesday night’s starter has, since Zach Eflin (11-6, 3.64) leads the Rays in wins after signing with the team in free agency. However, he’s just 3-5 since moving to 8-1 on June 12, and the Central Florida native had a 4.85 ERA in July, alternating wins and losses in going 2-3. Eflin got rocked by the Marlins last Wednesday, but is 1-0 against the Yankees this season. Current active New York hitters are batting just .196 against Eflin, and although Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton have each homered, they’re a combined 5-for-26. Gleyber Torres is 0-for-5 and Aaron Judge is 0-for-3. Eflin’s splits have been far better at home (10-2, 2.60) than on the road (1-4, 5.36), and the Rays have dropped two of his last three road starts. Tampa Bay does own a 5-3 edge on the Yankees in the season series.

THE PLAY – Rays at Yankees Full Game Bet

Eflin has come back down to earth and will be pitching in the Bronx for the second time. Rodon has settled in some and will have the Yankees’ bullpen at full strength behind him since Brito and German handled Monday night’s entire load, so the team’s pitching situation is in great shape. At a pick’em price, ride the New York Yankees on the full-game money line.

Brewers at Nationals Prediction

BREWERS (-150) at NATIONALS (+130), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

The Nationals added to Milwaukee’s struggles on Monday, pulling off a 5-3 upset by jumping on reliever Elvis Peguero as soon as they were able to get ace Corbin Burnes out of the game. On the same day Washington traded talented 3B Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs, it handled business at home, where it is now 8-1 in its last nine in D.C. The Brewers will look to snap a four-game losing streak behind Freddy Peralta (6-8, 4.46), who struck out 13 batters last time out against the Reds and has surrendered three or fewer runs in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s struck out at least eight batters in half of those outings but faces the team that strikes out the fewest in the NL in the Nats. Lane Thomas is 2-for-2 against Peralta, but other Washington hitters he’s faced are just 1-for-12 against the Dominican righty.

All-Star Josiah Gray (7-8, 3.27) will look to even his record and extend Washington’s recent run of success at home going against the only NL team he’s yet to face in his three-year career. Although he’s never faced Milwaukee, the four hitters he’s faced, Carlos Santana, Raimel Tapia, Abraham Toro and the newly acquired Mark Canha are 3-for-13 against Gray. Canha, who may or may not debut after being acquired from the Mets on Monday, is 3-for-5. The other hitters are a combined 0-for-8. Gray has strangely been much better on the road (4-4, 2.52) than at home (3-4, 4.57), but has surrendered one or fewer earned runs in four of his last six outings, winning 10-1 over the Giants the last time he took the mound at Nationals Park.

THE PLAY – Brewers at Nationals F5 Total Bet

Peralta has really found a groove and should be able to pitch well even if his strikeouts are down due to Washington’s ability to make contact. Milwaukee would have at least five more wins if its poor offense hadn’t been a season-long albatross, which is why they’ve been so active adding bats. Gray has an edge with most Brewers seeing him for the first time, so back the first-five under and look for these teams to hang mostly zeroes until the sixth.

White Sox at Rangers Prediction

WHITE SOX (+195) at RANGERS (-240), 8:05 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Chicago’s fire sale started earlier than most, and has featured the departure of starters Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn. Reliever Jesse Scholtens (1-3, 3.32) may end up taking the rotation spot for the foreseeable future or could just emerge as an opener, but he’ll make his third start against Texas team he worked two-thirds of an inning against on June 19. He’s working a few days after recording a hold in a win over Cleveland on Saturday and retired Mitch Garver and Leody Taveras in that previous outing. Tanner Banks could also eat some innings, but there’s no question the White Sox are rightfully heavy underdogs in what looks to be a bullpen game for a team that’s thrown in the towel and looking to 2024.

The Rangers acquired Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery to fill out their rotation, which also includes Jon Gray and Martin Perez. That leaves Tuesday’s starter, Andrew Heaney (7-6, 4.62) as one of the top No. 5 guys in MLB, but the lefty had a 5.87 ERA in June and a 5.40 ERA in July, which means there’s pressure on him to perform since Dane Dunning has performed well all season and is waiting in the wings to reclaim a starting spot should Heaney continue to struggle. Ironically, Heaney beat the White Sox in that June 19 game Scholtens appeared in, pitching 5.2 innings of two-run ball in a 5-2 win, striking out six and walking none. That’s the type of outing Texas is hoping to see tonight.

THE PLAY – White Sox at Rangers Total Play

Heaney has struggled too much lately to trust here given this much juice, but the White Sox look like they have an untenable situation on the mound post-trade deadline. A Texas offense that has excelled all season should be able to take advantage. Ride the full-game over on nine runs.

Red Sox at Mariners Prediction

RED SOX (+100) at MARINERS (-120), 9:40 p.m. ET, Total: 7.5

The Mariners need this key series as far as the AL Wild Card is concerned a little more than the visiting Red Sox, in part because they must take care of business at home. That made breaking open a tight game in the manner that they did vital as they plated four in the eighth inning to roll 6-2 in Monday’s opener. Catcher Cal Raleigh homered twice and no save situation was necessary on the day closer Paul Sewald was moved to Arizona as Seattle looks to improve its offense while banking that a strong bullpen can survive with guys taking on new roles. After a 17-9 July, the M’s open August with rookie Bryce Miller (7-3, 3.96) on the mound looking to continue a great run at home that has seen him allow just one earned run over his last 10.1 innings. Boston hasn’t scored more than three runs in any of its last four games after a six-game run scoring at least four or more, so Miller looks to keep Red Sox bats quiet. He’s never faced anyone on their roster in the bigs and may not have to face Justin Turner, who left Monday’s game with a heel contusion.

Boston still has the better record between these teams, but didn’t lose much ground since the Blue Jays and Yankees lost, but it is now 1-3 on this West Coast swing and are in danger of having it turn into a disaster due to its sudden power outage. Brayan Bello (7-6, 3.66) has been a bright spot in the rotation and has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in 15 of 16 starts, working at least six innings in 10 of those games. He helped beat Seattle 13-3 back in Boston on May 17 allowing one run over five innings despite walking a season-high five batters, striking out seven. Current Mariners are just 4-for-24 against Bello, with Teoscar Hernandez (2-for-9), having half the hits.

THE PLAY – Red Sox at Mariners F5 Total Play

Bello has been reliable all season and should step up against an offense that really struggles to score, while Miller has an edge against a Boston lineup that hasn’t seen him and will likely be without one of its most productive bats in Turner. Ride Seattle and Boston to go under the first-five total of 4-4.5 runs, with the larger number available at DraftKings.

Diamondbacks at Giants Prediction

DIAMONDBACKS (-115) at GIANTS (+105), 9:45 p.m. ET, Total: 7

The Diamondbacks got themselves a closer in acquiring Paul Sewald from Seattle, which is a big deal since a lot of their issues following an excellent start can be traced to their bullpen struggles. Arizona has been attempting to close out games by committee and hopes guys settling into defined roles can aid the cause over the season’s final two months. Getting to Sewald with a lead will now be the task, and we could see how that experiment unfolds tonight considering staff ace Zac Gallen (11-5, 3.36) gets the ball looking to match Philadelphia’s Taijuan Walker for the MLB lead in wins. Of course, victory No. 12 has been elusive since the Snakes have dropped each of his three outings since the All-Star break, with Gallen allowing three or more earned runs in each of those contests, dropping two of those decisions. He hasn’t been as sharp as he was earlier in the season and looks to get back on track against a Giants team that he beat 7-2 back on May 13, allowing just two runs in 7.2 innings. He’s dominated San Francisco hitters, who are batting a combined .151 (14-for-93), with only Michael Conforto (4-for-10, 1 HR), having any success. Brandon Crawford (2-for-19), Joc Pederson (2-for-18) and LaMonte Wade Jr. (2-for-17) have been absolutely lost against Arizona’s star pitcher, who is great at home (9-1, 1.96) but has been shaky on the road (2-4, 4.97).

The Giants fell 4-3 in 11 innings in Monday’s series opener as they squandered a 2-0 lead they held through five innings and failed to score in their final at-bat in extras. San Francisco (58-49) now has a 1-game lead over Arizona, Miami and Milwaukee and is up on Philadelphia by a half-game in a Wild Card race that should come down to the wire. It lost OF Mike Yastrzemski to a hamstring issue and acquired A.J. Pollock to help add depth, so the team’s roster is in flux amid a 4-8 stretch that has dragged it back to the pack. Staff ace Alex Cobb (6-3, 2.97) beat Arizona 6-2 on May 11, working 7.1 innings of shutout ball and has helped San Francisco win 11 of the 13 times he’s taken the mound. He struck out a season-high nine hitters over six shutout innings in a 2-1 win over Oakland last Tuesday and finished July with a 2.42 ERA over 22.1 innings. Cobb has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts, and also worked a scoreless inning in the All-Star Game, setting up a potential pitcher’s duel against Gallen. However, current Diamondbacks are hitting a collective .298 against Cobb. With Christian Walker (7-for-17, 1 HR, 4 RBI) leading the charge. Cobb is 4-1 with a 1.09 ERA this season at Oracle Park.

THE PLAY – Giants Player Prop Pick

Although Wilmer Flores is just 2-for-13 in his career against Gallen, both of the hits have been doubles and it’s hard to argue he’s right there among baseball’s hottest hitters of late. The Venezuelan infielder has hit safely in seven of eight games, homering again on Monday night. Ride San Francisco’s Wilmer Flores to top his runs + hits + RBI prop.

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