Free MLB Picks Today – Four MLB Games Predictions for 8/11/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Friday, Aug. 11

A’s at Nationals Prediction

A’S (-110) at NATIONALS (-110), 7:05 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Two of the worst teams in baseball go at it in D.C. this weekend, and it’s no coincidence that these are two of the four teams that have been no-hit in 2023. The A’s fell victim to the only perfect game thrown so far, courtesy of Yankees righty Domingo German, while the Nationals just got shut down on Wednesday by Philadelphia’s Michael Lorenzen in his first start since being acquired. Washington lost 6-2 to the Phillies on Thursday thanks to poor middle relief and committed three errors, losing for the third time in four games, ending a promising winning streak with a thud. Joan Adon (1-0, 4.91 ERA) will get make his second start after initially coming out of the bullpen in his return to the bigs last month. He had a 7.10 ERA over 14 starts last season and has had issues with walks and keeping the ball in the yard, so it’s a tough ask to believe he’s finally turned the corner. That said, Adon delivered the third quality start of his career in Cincinnati last Saturday, striking out seven and walking none in a 7-3 win. He’s never faced any Oakland A’s, so it will be interesting to see how this goes for the Dominican righty, who turns 25 on Saturday.

Oakland has lost six of nine, but comes off a 2-0 upset of the Rangers, which marked the eighth time in nine contests in which failed to score more than three runs. The A’s are hitting the road for a six-game road trip to face the Nats and Cardinals. Their record away from home is an MLB-worst 15-41, and their 82 losses are also the worst in baseball. Even though Oakland has dropped 10 of 12 outside the Coliseum, which is often so empty it offers no homefield edge, the pitching matchup favors it here, which is why this is a pick’em. Paul Blackburn (2-2, 4.35) has pitched in three straight wins, which is obviously impressive for the A’s, allowing three runs over 17.1 innings. He hasn’t pitched more than six innings this season, but has had more good starts than bad ones. All Nationals will be seeing Blackburn for the first time.

THE PLAY – A’s at Nationals F5 ML Bet

Adon comes off a great start and is facing a poor offense, but I wouldn’t trust him until we see him have sustained success. Blackburn has done that of late, coming in on the best run on his best run of the season as a veteran who should be able to handle a road atmosphere. Ride the A’s on the first-five money line, which covers you with a push if the teams are tied entering the sixth inning and keeps Oakland’s bullpen out of it.

Tigers at Red Sox Prediction

TIGERS (+135) at RED SOX (-160), 7:10 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Detroit has largely been looked at as playing spoiler since the All-Star break, but it may now have bigger aspirations after winning three straight against the AL Central-leading Twins. Since coming out of All-Star, the Tigers are 13-13, which doesn’t sound great, but means they’re still hanging around in the race, cutting Minnesota’s lead to seven games, sliding just 3.5 behind second-place Cleveland. They hit Boston to start what will likely be a season-defining nine-game road trip while on a their second-longest win streak of the season. Detroit pitched two shutouts over its last three wins and hand leftyTarik Skubal (2-1, 3.67) the ball for this first game at Fenway. He’s been inconsistent since debuting on July 4, surrendering no earned runs in four of six starts but getting hit hard in the other two outings. He’s only been able to pitch into the sixth inning once as his stamina still isn’t where it should be. Skubal has been brilliant at Comerica Park and shaky on the road, which follow a trend that’s been the case most of his career. He was lit up in Boston last season, allowing six runs in 4.2 innings in a 6-2 loss. Current Red Sox hitters are 7-for-18 against Skubal, with Alex Verdugo coming in 3-for-5 and backup Rob Refsnyder 2-for-3 with a home run.

Boston pulled off a shutout on Thursday, too, beating the Royals 2-0 to win that series and pull within four games of the final AL Wild Card. Lefty Chris Sale (5-2, 4.58) returns from a shoulder injury that has kept him out since June 1, coming off the 60-day IL with the expectation that he probably won’t be able to work more than four or five innings. The Red Sox had won four of his five starts before his injury and he comes in on a run of surrendering three or fewer runs in six straight outings. He struck out seven in 4.1 scoreless innings in his Aug. 6 rehab start, throwing 53 pitches. He didn’t give up a run with AAA Worcester in the lead-up to this return and will be the x-factor for this staff going forward. Sale beat Detroit 6-3 on April 6, pitching five innings and striking out seven but surrendering a home run to Tigers catcher Jake Rogers.

THE PLAY – Tigers at Red Sox F5 Spread Pick

If Detroit makes Sale work early, it can limit how long he’ll be out there for the Sox. Skubal hasn’t been great on the road but is the healthier option and has been impressive for the Tigers when he finds a rhythm. Getting a half-run, ride the Tigers on the first-five run line.

Padres at Diamondbacks Prediction

PADRES (-165) at DIAMONDBACKS (+140), 9:40 p.m. ET, Total: 9

In a crucial series for a pair of slumping NL West squads, San Diego visits Arizona looking to start its push since it enters Friday 4.5 games behind Miami, currently in place as the final Wild Card. Despite being winless in August thus far, coming in on an eight-game losing streak and a 5-20 extended run, the Diamondbacks are still just 2.5 games out and hoping to get back on track before spending next week in Colorado and San Diego. Ryne Nelson (6-6, 5.16), who shut out the Padres in his major league debut last September but then lost to them two weeks later and finished with a pair of no-decisions in a pair of April starts earlier this season, aims to stop the bleeding. Nelson actually started in Arizona’s most recent win on July 31, an extra-inning victory in San Francisco that he contributed to through a quality start. Nelson was roughed up in a 12-1 loss in Minnesota last Saturday, allowing six runs on eight hits in just three innings. Nelson has a dreadful 8.01 home ERA this season over 10 starts, allowing opponents to hit .356 against him and winning just two of six decisions. Current Padres are 11-for-61 (.180) against Nelson, with Ha-Seong Kim, Jake Cronenworth and Fernando Tatis, Jr. coming in a combined 1-for-21. Xander Bogaerts (2-for-5, 1 HR), Juan Soto (2-for-9, 2 HR) and Manny Machado (2-for-11, 1 HR), have gone deep against the Arizona second-year righty.

San Diego counters with Blake Snell (8-8, 2.61), who comes off his “worst” start in over two months but still aided the cause in a win over the Dodgers by giving up just three runs in five innings. Snell went on a run of 13 appearances between May 25-July 30 in which he gave up two or fewer runs, compiling an ERA well under 1.00. That the Padres went just 8-5 in those games is an indictment on how poorly their big-name offense has performed this season. Snell has struck out 116 and walked 45 over his last 14 outings, giving up just three home runs in 74 innings. He’s typically been at his best later in the season, so this could be a special season for the 30-year-old lefty. This will be the first time Arizona will be facing Snell in 2023, but he allowed just two runs in 13 innings against the Snakes last season, striking out 17 and walking only one. Current Diamondbacks hitters are just 14-for-101 (.139) against Snell, with big names Ketel Marte (2-for-23) and Christian Walker (1-for-18) struggling mightily. Corbin Carroll has gone 1-for-2 with a double, while Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. has gone 2-for-13 with two homers.

THE PLAY – Padres Strikeout Prop Pick

Snell has recorded 39 of the 101 outs against current DBacks via strikeout and has notched at least seven K’s in 11 of his 13 outings . Ride Padres lefty Blake Snell to continue his surge and back the over on his strikeout prop.

Rangers at Giants Prediction

RANGERS (-120) AT GIANTS (+100), 10:15 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

Texas lost for the first time in August on Thursday, getting shut out by Oakland 2-0 as a bullpen game unexpectedly put an end to its eight-game win streak. The Rangers will look to start a new run behind Jon Gray (7-5, 3.72), who has really struggled since late June, something that not even a break could fix since he got lit up by the Marlins and was bailed out by his offense last Saturday in a 9-8 win. His ERA is well over 5.00 over his last six outings and he’s in danger of losing his starting spot when Nathan Eovaldi returns from a forearm injury, potentially as early as next week. Gray was awesome earlier in the season but has been quite vulnerable since getting banged up. Current Giants are 24-for-94 (.255) against Gray, with SS Brandon Crawford (9-for-27, 2 HR) doing the most damage. Joc Pederson has hit a pair of homers against the veteran righty but has hit just 6-for-32.

Lefty reliever Scott Alexander (6-2, 4.01), who has made multiple starts as an opener, will get the call first for the Giants, who will then use a bulk guy, likely Ross Stripling (0-4, 5.21) to work the bulk of the frames. Current Rangers are 10-for-46 (.217) against Stripling, with one homer hit by Leody Taveras (1-for-3) and a pair of doubles hit by Marcus Semien (2-for-5). Stripling has been solid since getting back to action in late June after over a month’s absence, finding a rhythm in mid-July. The Giants have dropped four of five but remain second in the NL Wild Card race and will look to continue their dominance at home, where they’ve won 10 of the last 13.

THE PLAY – Rangers at Giants Full Game ML Bet

Given that Gray continues to struggle and the Giants have been lights out at home of late, an even money wager here is hard to resist. Ride San Francisco on the full-game money line.

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