Free MLB Picks Today – Four MLB Games Predictions for 8/14/2023

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The Pulse: Daily MLB Betting Picks for Monday, Aug. 14

Yankees at Braves Prediction

YANKEES (+190) at BRAVES (-230), 7:20 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Although they were unable to secure a series sweep after a 7-6 loss on Sunday night, the Braves again look formidable and have now won five of seven following a rare three-game skid. Baseball’s most prolific offense has scored at least five runs in all but one of their 13 games this month, and has done so in 15 of 17, plating eight or more in seven of those contests. Atlanta’s dominance in the first inning is well-documented, but it’s still amazing to see how heavily favored the team is against the visiting Yankees, who arrive in last place in the AL East despite still owning a winning record. The Bronx Bombers come in off another meltdown, blowing a 7-1 lead in the final two innings as closer Clay Holmes blew a certain victory through bad pitching and a costly error. At 60-58, New York sits five games behind Toronto for the final AL Wild Card.

Clarke Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) will look to help the Yanks pull the upset and has helped pitch the Yankees to victories in seven consecutive starts. Since the beginning of May, Schmidt has surrendered more than three runs in a single start only once in 17 outings, regularly working at least five innings. This will be a special game for the Georgia native, who will be pitching in his home state and facing the Braves for the first time. Only Kevin Pillar and Nicky Lopez have faced Schmidt among current Atlanta hitters, coming in 1-for-3. Max Fried (3-1, 2.50) will make his third start since returning to the rotation after missing almost three months due to a forearm strain. He had one rough inning in an eventual 6-5 win in Pittsburgh last Wednesday, pitching only four innings. The talented lefty has allowed one or fewer earned runs in five of his seven starts in 2023 and will be looking to bounce back against a New York offense that ranks seventh in MLB in OPS against southpaws. Fried won his only start vs. the Yankees back in 2020, so he doesn’t have much of a history against their hitters. Giancarlo Stanton comes in 3-for-5 with a home against the Braves lefty.

THE PLAY – Yankees at Braves Full-Game RL Bet

Although manager Aaron Boone continues to make all the wrong moves and New York comes off another dreadful loss, this number is far too steep. Schmidt has been solid, DJ LeMahieu may return to the lineup and the sense of urgency definitely favors the visitors. Back the Yankees +1.5 on the run line, expecting them to hang around in this series opener.

A’s at Cardinals Prediction

A’S (+175) at CARDINALS (-210), 7:45 p.m. ET, Total: 8.5

The worst team in baseball visits St. Louis as losers of five of six, and is on pace to win 45 games unless they heat up significantly. That is far-fetched considering the A’s have posted a single winning streak longer than two games all season and were just swept in D.C. Those three wins allowed the Nationals to leapfrog the disappointing Cardinals, who bring up the rear in the NL Central, coming into the week a half-game behind Pittsburgh. St. Louis hasn’t quit despite its brutal 2023, winning three of four and looking to finish strong in a spoiler role, so it’s not surprising to see it this heavily favored against woeful Oakland. Normally strong at home, the Cards have actually fared better on the road this season, but that could change this week if they take care of business with the A’s and Mets in town.

Following a rare off day on Sunday, St. Louis will look to stay hot behind Miles Mikolas (6-8, 4.20), who has worked seven innings in each of his August starts, allowing just two earned runs while sporting a 12:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Despite those efforts, he took losses in both those outings as the offense managed just two runs in each contest. He’s never faced any of the current A’s. Lefty JP Sears (2-9, 4.23) gets the ball for Oakland and has also suffered back-to-back defeats. He gave up four runs on nine hits in just four innings in a home loss to Texas last Tuesday but has been one of his team’s top arms all season and has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in five of seven starts since the beginning of July. The Cardinals will also be seeing Sears for the first time, so there’s no one with experience against the lefty. St. Louis ranks 12th in MLB against southpaws in OPS.

THE PLAY – Cardinals Player Prop Pick  

Cards SS Tommy Edman has been impressive since returning from injury after missing nearly all of July, hitting safely in eight of 11 games this month. Edman hit a pair of home runs in Saturday’s 5-4 win in Kansas City, is hitting .325 this month and has gone 7-for-15 over the past four games, smacking three homers and two doubles Ride the over on St. Louis’ Tommy Edman’s hits + runs + RBI prop..

Angels at Rangers Prediction

ANGELS (+155) at RANGERS (-185), 8:05 p.m. ET, Total: 9

Texas already got good news entering this series since it’s been announced that Shohei Ohtani won’t take his scheduled turn in the rotation on Tuesday, opting to rest his arm due to some fatigue. This is a good decision considering the Angels have face-planted since Aug. 1, coming in 3-9 despite holding on to Ohtani and avoiding a sweep in Houston behind his 41st home run on Sunday. L.A. is 6.5 games back for the final Wild Card and has to start its resurgence now despite Mike Trout still being at least 10-14 days away from a realistic return. Despite a 3-2 loss in San Francisco, Texas returns home to open the week as the hottest team in the AL, coming in 10-2 in August. All but two of its wins have come by multiple runs and yesterday’s loss came after closer Will Smith surrendered a walk-off blast with two outs in the 10th. The Rangers have won their last seven home games and their 40-20 mark in Arlington is the best home record in all of MLB. The Angels won three of four at Globe Life Park in mid-June and lead the season series 4-3, so this is a bit of a revenge spot for Texas, which holds a 2.5-game edge on the Astros in the AL West.

Max Scherzer (11-4, 3.88) is 2-0 and has allowed just four runs in 13 innings since arriving from New York, striking out 15 while walking four. The likely future Hall of Famer has allowed one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts, working seven full innings in each of those outings since the All-Star break. Scherzer gave up a run on three hits against the A’s in his Rangers home debut last Tuesday and has dominated current Angels, who come in a combined 15-for-105 against him (.143), compiling those numbers in NL matchups. This will be the first time he’ll square off against Ohtani. Although catcher Jonah Heim came off the IL over the weekend, he’ll likely continue to work with Mitch Garver. Lefty Patrick Sandoval (6-8, 3.86) will start for the Angels and has been one of their better arms, allowing three or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. He had a 1.04 ERA in July and has allowed just two runs in each of his two August starts. Sandoval has yet to face Texas this season, so it remains to be seen how he handles an offense that leads the AL in OPS against southpaws. Current Rangers are just 5-for-47 .105) against Sandoval, which includes Corey Seager coming in 1-for-12 and Leody Taveras going 0-for-7 with four K’s.

THE PLAY – Rangers Strikeout Prop Pick  

The Angels rank third in MLB in strikeouts against righties and third in the AL in K’s overall, so this is a great matchup for Scherzer, who has struck out at least six hitters in 13 consecutive starts in which he’s worked at least five frames. Ride Rangers righty Max Scherzer to continue impressing in his new digs and back the over on his strikeout prop.

Rays at Giants Prediction

RAYS (-142) AT GIANTS (+120), 9:45 p.m. ET, Total: 7.5

Tyler Glasnow (5-3, 3.15) will make his first August start after dealing with back discomfort, and given the state of Tampa Bay’s rotation, how he fares is one of the most important things to monitor on Monday’s slate. With ace Shane McClanahan done for the regular season and likely unavailable for the playoffs, Glasnow is by far the Rays’ most talented pitcher and has surrendered more than three runs in only one of his 12 starts. He had a 2.11 ERA over six July outings and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. If he looks like himself in this matchup, Tampa can breathe a huge sigh of relief. The team is also waiting to hear what MLB uncovers regarding star shortstop Wander Franco since a social media post accused the 22-year-old of being in a relationship with a 14-year-old. He didn’t travel with the Rays for this six-game west coast trip that continues in Anaheim later this week and has been replaced by prized prospect Osleivis Basabe for the time being. Tampa Bay has suffered through a tumultuous last few months following its brilliant 47-19 start, playing sub-.500 ball over its last 50 games since June 10. Despite those struggles, the Rays remain the AL’s top Wild Card and enter the week just three games behind Baltimore in the East. Glasnow has never faced any current Giants, is expected to have no restrictions in this start and reported feeling good after suffering spasms a few weeks ago.

San Francisco badly needed Patrick Bailey’s walk-off 10th-inning homer to avoid a sweep at the hands of Texas on Sunday, but it still has dropped six of eight and has a bunch of teams creeping up behind it in the NL Wild Card race. They just faced the Rangers, host the Rays for three and have nine games coming up against the Braves and Phillies, six of which to be played against formidable Atlanta, making this the Giants’ toughest stretch of the season. Ryan Walker (4-1, 2.40) will serve as the opener for San Francisco, which hasn’t identified who will start Tuesday or Wednesday’s games in this series, a clear sign that it is fighting through attrition on the mound. Top prospect Kyle Harrison is likely to make his MLB debut at some point in this series. Walker has never faced any current Rays.

THE PLAY – Giants Player Prop Pick  

Bailey played hero on Sunday and has been incredibly effective in emerging as Buster Posey’s long-term replacement as a rookie. He’s been particularly good at the plate of late, hitting safely in six of seven games, although the walk-off blast was his first home run since June 30. After slumping in July, Bailey is hitting .323 in August and enters this game on a 9-for-21 run with four runs scored and seven RBi. Ride over on San Francisco catcher Patrick Bailey’s hits + runs + RBI prop.

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