Guardians vs Reds Prediction and Betting Odds May 17
Guardians vs Reds Betting Preview and Odds
The Guardians won the first two games between these two teams back in April and will meet for two more, this time in Cleveland. WagerTalk MLB handicapper Andy Lang offers his Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds betting preview for Tuesday, May 17, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10pm ET / 3:10pm PT.
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| Tuesday, May 17 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Cleveland Guardians -160 vs Cincinnati Reds +150 |
| Runline: | Guardians -1.5 (+135) / Reds +1.5 (-155) |
| Total: | 8 Runs (Over -120 / Under +100) |
| Game Time: | 6:10pm ET / 3:10pm PT |
| Where: | Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH |
| Weather: | 60 Degrees / Clear |
Guardians vs Reds Analysis
On Tuesday night, the Cincinnati Reds begin a short two game series with their intrastate rivals the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field.
Both teams are coming in fresh after scheduled off days on Monday. The Reds split four games in Pittsburgh against the Pirates in their last series, while the Guardians lost 2 of 3 in Minnesota against the Twins.
The Guardians start 2nd year righty Zach Plesac. He will be opposed by Connor Overton who is making his fourth appearance of the season. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10 PM EST.
Overton Strong Start
The Cincinnati Reds have been horrendous this season, their 9-26 record is easily the worst in the league as the only team that doesn’t have double digit wins.
Their most recent loss was a heartbreaker as they lost 1-0 despite not allowing a single hit. Hunter Greene threw 7.1 innings of work without allowing a single hit, however he did walk five batters and finally allowed a run on a ground out in the 8th.
Relief pitcher Art Warren finished the 8th and Pittsburgh didn’t need their 9th inning at bats with Cincinnati being unable to score. No Red had a multi-hit game and Alejo Lopez had a double, representing the only extra-base hit.
The Cincinnati offense is anemic as they rank bottom five in any offensive category imaginable. One of the Reds few bright spots has been 28 year-old starter Connor Overton. Overton was rock solid in his last start, throwing 6.1 scoreless innings in a victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Overton became the first Reds pitcher to complete six innings in 32 games this season, which is staggering when you think about it.
Overton has a phenomenal 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, however has walked too many hitters, not struck out enough and after two starts against the lowly Pirates now faces a much more potent lineup in the Guardians.
Guardians of Ohio
The Cleveland Guardians dropped three games in what became a five game road trip, resulting in a 16-17 record on the season. They most recently lost 3-1 in Minnesota on Sunday.
Triston McKenzie kept his team in the game with seven innings of three run baseball. However, Jose Ramirez solo home run in the 4th inning was the only offense they could muster.
Cleveland is off to a promising start at the plate as they rank 7th in slugging percentage and top five in batting average despite ranking 17th in home runs. This team is especially dominant against right-handed pitching, which could result in a long night for Connor Overton.
Opposing Overton will be sophomore starter Zach Plesac. He opened the season with three strong starts but has not looked sharp during the last month. He got lit up for five runs in 6.1 innings in a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox.
Guardians vs Reds Prediction
The Cleveland Guardians are heavily favored with a -155 money line, with the Cincinnati Reds at +135 and a total of 8.5. Connor Overton has been the Reds best starter, which isn’t saying a lot they rank dead last in the majors in ERA, WHP and home runs allowed.
Overton may be in trouble here as the Guardians absolutely smash right-handed pitching, ranking 1st in batting average, 3rd in runs scored, 1st in wRC+ and 1st in OPS. These teams met for two games in early April and combined for 15 and 10 runs for an average of 12.5 per game.
High game totals have been prominent for both teams this season as the over is 41-26-1 in their combined 68 games. The over has hit in 15 of the Reds last 19 games and 8 of the Guardians last 12 games.
Progressive Field has been no stranger to an over as the over is 8-4 in Guardians home games this season, including 6-1 in their last 7 games. The Reds bullpen also ranks 29th in ERA, while Clevelands ranks 11th. The one flaw in this over is the Reds lack of offensive production.
However, based on the poor current form of Plesac, the Reds should be able to do their part to push this game to 8+ runs or more.
Prediction: Over 8 Total Runs Scored
Interested in placing a bet on Tuesday’s Guardians vs Reds Interleague clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
First Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for May 17
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Three different Yankees are among the top five home run hitters in the league. Can one of them smash one out of the park tonight against Spenser Watkins and the Orioles? Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Tuesday’s baseball games, including this Guardians vs Reds showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Andy Lang has lived in Indianapolis his whole life, and like most people from the Hoosier State, he became fascinated with motor sports. That interest in motor sports turned into a desire to make money off the sport through fantasy contests and sports betting. Like most, he took his lumps when he first got started, but now he is one of the most respected NASCAR bettors in the industry. Andy has expanded that sports betting experience to become profitable in a number of other sports, transforming this interest from a side hobby to a major source of income.
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