Home Run Prop Picks, Best Predictions and Odds 7/4/23 – Best MLB Prop Bets for Today
Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For July 4
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The Prop Hub provides their daily home run prop picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 4 with odds provided by FanDuel.
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Let’s face it, the AL Central as a division may be the worst in baseball this season but if the Twins want any shot at winning this division come season’s end, Byron Buxton needs to show some improvement at the plate.
His average has gotten worse with each month that passes, but he did hit four home runs in June compared to three in May.
Buxton and the Twins get Zach Greinke and the Royals today in which Buxton is 7-18 with a home run in his career vs the Kansas City veteran.
Although Buxton’s average sits at just .207, he possesses averages better than that against righties (.219), playing at home (.212) and playing during the day (.254) all of which will be the case today.
He’s also hit 11 of his 14 home runs against righties and also while playing at home. Also, if you compare his slugging percentage during day games (.518) compared to night games (.370) you can see why we’re going with Buxton to hit a home run today against the Royals.
Greinke’s road ERA sits at 7.04 while allowing nine home runs in 38.1 innings pitched compared to allowing six at 49 innings pitched at Kauffman Stadium.
Take Buxton to hit a home run at +280 with other Twins to consider for a home run include Carlos Correa (+400) and Max Kepler (+470).
Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Chas McCormick (+430)
It seems as though the Astros have finally found their offensive identity with Yordan Alvarez still sidelined with an injury.
They’ve won five of six games scoring eight runs per game during that stretch. Astros center fielder Chas McCormick has been a big help going 7-18 with a home run and five RBIs during that stretch.
The Astros welcome in lefty Kyle Freeland and the Rockies today who sports a 5.92 road ERA while allowing opponents to bat .295. Righties have a .493 slugging percentage against and .829 OPS.
In June Freeland gave up 19 earned runs in 26.1 innings pitched including four home runs. On the season McCormick has a .532 slugging percentage against lefties, .319 batting average and .611 slugging percentage at home and .292 batting average and .625 slugging percentage during day games.
Take McCormick to hit a home run at +430 with other Astros batters to consider for a home run include Mauricio Dubs (+630) and Jose Abreu (+480).
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