Home Run Prop Picks, Predictions and Odds 7/28/22

Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For July 28

Yordan Alvarez blasted his 29th home run of the season yesterday off the Athletics Cole Irvin. WagerTalk content contributor Kyle Kargel provides his daily home run prop picks and predictions for Thursday, July 28 with odds provided by PointsBet.

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Home Run Prop Prediction 1: Freddie Freeman (+400)

We’re rolling with Freddie Freeman once again to hit a home run and rightfully so. Freeman has tons of experience going up against Jose Urena from his days in Atlanta when Urena pitched for Miami.

He’s 14-34 all-time against the former Marlin with four home runs. Freeman has hit six home runs in July with a .390 batting average.

Like many of the Dodgers he did struggle offensively in their series against the Nationals but a trip to Coors Field will be good for all Dodger bats. Urena has been decent this season but he was shelled by the Brewers during his last start giving up five runs in 5.1 innings pitched.

He allows opposing left handed hitters to hit .333 this season and has a lifetime ERA of 4.70. You can get Freeman at +400 to hit a home run but other Dodgers hitters to consider are Cody Bellinger (+370), Justin Turner (+450) and Trea Turner (+370).

Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Jeimer Candelario (+500)

Normally I wouldn’t take any Tiger to hit a home run, but I’ll make an exception tonight for third baseman Jeimer Candelario.

He’s been a poor hitter overall this season but half of his 10 home runs have been hit this month and he’s hitting .300 for the month of July as well. Tiger fans have expected more from him overall and maybe now is the time to breakout with the team more than likely looking to sell at the trade deadline.

He and the Tigers go up against Yusei Kikuchi who sports a 5.12 ERA including giving up seven home runs in his last five starts. Ten of the 14 home runs he’s given up this season have been at home in 37.2 innings pitched which comes out to one home run given up every 3-4 innings.

Candelario hits lefties better this season batting .235 with four home runs in 68 at-bats compared to righties in which he’s hitting .208 with six home runs in 197 at-bats. Candelario is listed at +500 to hit a home run but considering Kikuchi’s vulnerability to hit a home run, another player to consider is Javier Baez at +350.

Interested in placing a home run prop bet? PointsBet is offering two risk-free bets up to $2,000 for bettors in New Jersey, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and New York.

First Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for Thursday, July 28

Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch discussing the MLB betting slate.

Daily MLB Game Previews From WagerTalk and Sportsmemo

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