Home Run Prop Picks, Predictions and Odds 8/1/22
Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For August 1
The Phillies Kyle Schwarber hit his 33rd home run yesterday firmly holding his second place spot in home runs hit on the season. WagerTalk content contributor Kyle Kargel provides his daily home run prop picks and predictions for Monday, August 1 with odds provided by PointsBet.
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Home Run Prop Prediction 1: Pete Alonso (+220)
It’s hard to ignore what Pete Alonso has done against Patrick Corbin in his career facing him. He’s 12-33 with four home runs and they’ll face off at Nationals Park tonight, a park that has given up the 6th most home runs of any MLB park.
The Mets overall are hot, riding a 6-game winning streak into Washington D.C. and given that Alonso has hit 15 of his 26 home runs on the road won’t bother him not playing at Citi Field tonight. Alonso sits tied for 5th in the MLB with 26 home runs and has even splits in number of at-bats to home runs for both righties and lefties.
Corbin has faced off against the Mets three times this season already posting a 6.08 ERA and allowing one home run. Believe it or not this is actually an improvement from his overall ERA on the season of 6.49. He’s given up 18 home runs in 105.1 innings pitched so far this season which is good for one every 5.8 innings pitched.
He’s been shelled for 11 earned runs in 5.2 innings pitched over his last two starts but only allowed one home run. Expect a couple home runs to be blasted out of Nationals Park tonight by the Mets.
Get Alonso at +220 but other Mets you could consider are J.D. Davis (+450) who is 11-35 with four home runs against Corbin and Starling Marie (+500) who is 9-33 with a home run this year off Corbin.
Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Jesus Aguilar (TBD)
Let’s face it, the Marlins offense has been pretty bad this season. They’re 21st in home runs hit, 22nd in team batting average and 24th in runs scored this season.
If they’re going to excel on offense though, it’ll be against a guy like the Reds’ Hunter Greene who has allowed the second most home runs of any pitcher in the MLB at 23. He’s actually been better recently at allowing home runs, giving up only one in his last three starts but he still gave up seven earned runs in total.
His last start came against these same Marlins in which he went 6.1 innings and allowed two earned runs. In that game though he allowed a personal season high of 16 fly balls to 28 batters faced so we know the Marlins can at least get a good handle on his pitch location.
All of this is why we’re going with Jesus Aguilar to crush a home run out in Miami as he hits .266 at home compared to .221 on the road. He’s hit .250 with a home run against the Reds already this season.
The Reds also possess the league’s highest bullpen ERA and have allowed the third most home runs of any bullpen in the MLB which makes other guys like Avisail Garcia and Bryan De La Cruz to hit a home run good bets as well.
Interested in placing a home run prop bet? PointsBet is offering two risk-free bets up to $2,000 for bettors in New Jersey, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and New York.
First Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for Monday, August 1
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