Home Run Prop Picks, Predictions and Odds 8/15/22

Today’s MLB Home Run Prop Bets For August 15

The Great American Ball Park is host to the most home runs hit of any MLB stadium as we make our way there with one of today’s selections. WagerTalk content contributor Kyle Kargel provides his daily home run prop picks and predictions for Monday, August 15 with odds provided by PointsBet.

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Home Run Prop Prediction 1: Nick Castellanos (+320)

Nick Castellanos is well behind the home run pace he had last season in which he hit 34 in 138 games. He’s hit 10 in 113 games this season for Philadelphia but will return to a place he’s familiar hitting in the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.

The Phillies offense as a whole has been stagnant only scoring two runs in their past four games. That trend will surely turn around tonight going against Mike Minor who is 1-9 on the season sporting a 6.24 ERA.

Castellanos is 4-11 with two home runs in his career against Minor and should be in line to hit one out tonight. Minor hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings in his last three starts and has allowed six home runs combined in his last four starts.

He’s allowed 11 home runs in 36 innings pitched at home which is a terrible innings pitched/home runs allowed ratio. Castellanos has hit .311 against lefties this season and provides a .278 average on the road. Both better than his overall average on the season.

This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season in which Castellanos and the Phillies will be chomping at the bit. Get Castellanos at +320 but other Phillies hitters to consider are Jean Segura (+400) who is 5-11 all-time against Minor as well as Bryson Stott (+700) who’s hitting .421 in the past week.

Home Run Prop Prediction 2: Matt Chapman (+320)

The Blue Jays look to turn back up the offense after only scoring four runs in their 3-game series with the Guardians over the weekend.

They get Kyle Bradish and the Orioles tonight in which Bradish has been vulnerable to giving up home runs. He’s allowed three in his last four starts and hasn’t pitched more than 5.1 innings in any of his past five starts.

His last start actually came against these Blue Jays in which he allowed one home run, three earned runs in total in 5.1 innings pitched. Matt Chapman looks to come through tonight with a home run as three of his six hits this month have been home runs.

Now his average has been poor in August at .158 and it can’t get much worse for Chapman. He hit a home run two games ago against the Guardians as Chapman plays much better at home than on the road with 17 of his 23 home runs coming at the Rogers Centre.

Overall on the season against the Orioles Chapman is hitting .429 with three home runs. Chapman is listed at +320 to hit a home run tonight, but other Blue Jays hitters that could hit a home run out of the Rogers Centre include Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370) and Bo Bichette (+500).

Interested in placing a home run prop bet? PointsBet is offering two risk-free bets up to $2,000 for bettors in New Jersey, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Colorado, Michigan, Virginia and New York.

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