Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction and Betting Odds July 5
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his thoughts on Tuesday’s Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals clash in the American League. Crafty right-handed veteran Zach Greinke takes the bump for Kansas City against fellow righty Luis Garcia.
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| Tuesday, July 5 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Houston Astros -250 vs Kansas City Royals +205 |
| Runline: | Astros -1.5 (-125) / Royals +1.5 (+105) |
| Total: | 8 Runs (Over -120 / Under EV) |
| Game Time: | 8:10pm ET / 5:10pm PT |
| Where: | Minute Maid Park in Houston |
| Weather: | Dome |
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Analysis
The Kansas City Royals take on the Houston Astros in the second of a three-game series in Minute Maid Park. Kansas City got off to a 5-0 lead in Monday’s game, but the home team took advantage of a shaky KC bullpen to come back and win the July 4 contest 7-6.
The Crafty Vet
I’ll have to give Zach Greinke credit, he’s lasted a lot longer in the major leagues as a pitcher than I thought he would. While his ERA isn’t terrible at 4.38, his advanced analytics show that his time in the big leagues may be coming to an end soon. In eight Baseball Savant categories, he’s in the 15th percentile or lower – and he’s not missing many bats at all, as he’s in the lowest 1st percentile in K rate.
The Royals are getting better at the plate with the recent addition of Vinny Pasquantino (the “Italian Nightmare” according to George Brett). They’re still 24th in OPS at .681, but 17th in team batting average at .240. While this still isn’t a “bet on” team by any stretch of the imagination, they are improving on offense.
The Kansas City bullpen is one of the worst in MLB, with a 3rd highest ERA of 4.72 and a Snoop Dogg-high 1.48 WHIP. Monday’s game was a prime example of why you shouldn’t trust these firemen.
Keep It In The Yard
Luis Garcia has been a solid part of the Astros starting rotation. In 14 starts and 76.1 innings, he’s accrued a 3.54 ERA, an impressive 1.06 WHIP along with 80 strikeouts. His only weakness has been the long ball, as he’s given up 13 long flies this season. With Bobby Witt Jr. and Pasquantino in the lineup, it’s possible the Royals could touch up Garcia for a home run.
Houston has crushed right-handed pitching this year, as they have a 4th best OPS of .746 and a whopping 81 home runs against righties. That’s not good news for the Royals or Mr. Greinke tonight.
There’s not much else to say about this team, as the Astros are playing good baseball and are in fine mid-season form. They lead the AL West by a comfortable 13.5 games over 2nd place Seattle with a 52-27 record.
Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals Prediction
Houston has the starting pitching edge with Garcia over Greinke, and they have the second-best record in baseball behind the Yankees. The home team also has a huge edge in the bullpen, as their firemen have the lowest ERA at 2.62 and a 1.11 WHIP. Houston’s lineup should be able to tee off on Greinke and get at least one home run. Nothing that I see convinces me that the Royals could cover the run line, unless KC plays really well and the Astros meltdown – and I don’t see that happening. That’s why I’ll take Houston on the run line.
Prediction: Houston Run Line (-1.5)
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Tuesday, July 5
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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