Marlins at Padres Prediction and Betting Preview May 5
Marlins at Padres Prediction and Spreads
The Padres sit only a game behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings as they welcome in the Marlins to Petco Park for a four game series. WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres preview for Thursday, May 5.
| Thursday, May 5 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Miami Marlins (+100) at San Diego Padres (-110) |
| Runline: | Marlins +1.5 (-210) / Padres -1.5 (+180) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -105 / Under -115) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | Petco Park in San Diego, CA |
| Weather: | 62 Degrees / Clear |
Marlins at Padres Analysis
The Miami Marlins visit Petco Park to play the San Diego Padres in the first of a four game series. Southpaw Jesus Luzardo gets the start against right-hander Nick Martinez. The Friars hope to continue their winning ways, while Miami wants to turn things around.
Miami Needs End to Losing Streak
The last three games in Miami weren’t the usual Marlins-type games for two reasons: 1) They were higher-scoring than usual with at least nine total runs in all three games, and 2) The team’s pitching let them down in key situations.
Every team and staff has their ups and downs, and the Marlins pitching staff is one of the better ones in baseball. I’m not worried about them going forward, and they should be due for some positive regression soon.
In recent years, Miami hasn’t been known for a high-powered offense because of where they play and a light-hitting roster. With the addition of Jorge Soler and other teammates improving at the plate, they’ve moved up to a surprising 12th-best OPS of .700 and team average of .237.
If they can maintain this level of production throughout the year, the Marlins should be a playoff contender.
Martinez is Back in MLB
Nick Martinez is the Padres’ spot starter and is pitching in the big leagues this year after a five-year hiatus. That’s right – he last pitched in the show back in 2017.
Tip of the hat to Mr. Martinez for being consistent and persistent, and not giving up on his dream. However, he’s gotten off to a Jekyll-and-Hyde beginning to his 2022 season.
He has two good games and two not-so-good games to start the season. Both of the bad outings were at home against the Dodgers and Braves – two of the best lineups in baseball – giving up six earned runs in 9.2 innings and five home runs.
The right-hander also has 18 strikeouts and 12 walks, so the lack of control and number of long flies give me some cause for pause. Especially in the ballpark you should feel most comfortable and pitch better in.
The Padres return home after a successful 6-2 road trip versus the Pirates, Reds and Guardians. They finished yesterday in Cleveland with a double-header and the last game went 10 innings. And similar to the Marlins, most of their recent games were on the higher-scoring side, so it looks like the hitters have found their regular-season groove.
Marlins at Padres Prediction
San Diego is coming off an eight-game road trip where they played a doubleheader yesterday, before flying back home. Miami comes off a three-game home series where they lost each game by one run to the surging Diamondbacks.
The Marlins may be looking forward to a change of scenery after three close losses. A rule of thumb in handicapping is to fade the team playing their first home game after an extended roadie, and that’s the situation the Padres are in.
Combined with a better starting pitcher and bullpen, plus starting a homestand after right games on the road, that’s why I like Miami on the moneyline.
Prediction: Miami Marlins Moneyline
Interested in placing a bet on Thursday’s Marlins at Padres American League clash? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 match bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
First Pitch | MLB Betting Preview for May 5
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Miles Mikolas goes up against Logan Webb as the Cardinals and Giants meet for a four game set. Can the Giants win tonight and stop their three game losing streak? Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s baseball games, including this Marlins at Padres showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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