Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins Prediction and Betting Odds August 22
Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Monday’s Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins clash at Tropicana Field. The Athletics and Marlins are two of the worst teams in the MLB in terms of team batting average and runs scored per game.
| Monday, August 22 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Oakland Athletics +122 vs Miami Marlins -145 |
| Runline: | Athletics +1.5 (-145) / Marlins -1.5 (+125) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | RingCentral Coliseum |
| Weather: | 65 Degrees / Clear |
Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins Analysis
The Oakland A”s host the Miami Marlins in the first of a three game set. The Athletics won two of three games from the Mariners in Seattle, and the Marlins lost three in a row to the Dodgers in LA.
It’s a battle of right-handers as Pablo Lopez gets the start for Miami and Adam Oller takes the hill for Oakland. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 PM EDT in RingCentral Coliseum.
Both teams are playing out the schedule and won’t make the postseason. The A’s are negotiating with the cities of Oakland and Las Vegas to move the team to Sin City (probably in 2024 or ’25).
That’s because they have the lowest average attendance in the majors and won’t get a new ballpark from Oakland, but will get one from Vegas. And the Marlins appear to be staying put in south Florida, although they’re just one spot ahead of the A’s in fan support at LoanDepot Park. The Fish are a road favorite of -145, the Athletics are a home dog at +122, and the over/under is 7.
Cold Bats For Marlins
2022 for Pablo Lopez has been a mixed bag. He started the year with two good months in April and May, and rougher outings from June through August. Although he has a sub-4.00 ERA for the season, in his last seven starts the right-hander has a 6.43 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP with a 1-4 record.
The Marlins have almost always had good-to-great pitching, but problems at the plate – and 2022 looks pretty similar. They’re 27th in average runs scored per game at 3.68, and it’s lower than their 2021 average of 3.85. Staff ERA is 14th best in MLB, while the bullpen is 18th – lower than average for past Marlins pitching staffs.
Oakland Trying to Utilize Oller
Oakland is almost a mirror image of Miami, except they may be working with less talent (especially on the mound) than the Marlins. Rookie Adam Oller got thrown into the starting rotation after the A’s traded off Sean Manaea last March.
It’s been a baptism by fire, but the right-hander is getting better as the year goes along. He started 2022 in the rotation, then went to the bullpen and is now back to starting. For the month of July, his ERA was 5.74, and lowered to just over 4.00 for the month of August.
Oller has also pitched better on the road than at home. In 10 road starts he’s posted a 5.29 ERA, and in five home outings (four starts) the righty has accrued a Snoop Dogg-high 8.59 ERA with a 1-3 record.
However, his recent form is better than that of Pablo Lopez. Holler has lowered his ERA by over 2.30 points in his last six starts and posted a 4.74 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP.
While their staff ERA is 24th in baseball, the A’s hitting is also bad: 29th in average runs scored per game.
Oakland Athletics vs Miami Marlins Prediction
This game is tricky to handicap as both teams struggle to score runs, and there’s not a big edge in pitching or hitting for either side. The over/under of 7 seems about right, so I’ll look to the recent form of each starter.
Oller has pitched better recently than Lopez, and Oakland is the underdog with a better price. The A’s have also won two in a row and are 4-6 in their last 10 games. And Miami is 2-8 and on a four-game losing streak.
Im not running to the window to wager on this game, and would tread (and bet) lightly. But I see value on the home dog, and will lean to the Athletics getting a half run on the 1st 5 innings run line (+0.5). And feel free to sprinkle a little bit on the full game money line at plus money.
Prediction: Athletics 1st 5 Innings Run Line (+0.5 runs)
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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