San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction and Betting Odds August 4
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Thursday’s San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies clash at Petco Park. The Padres go for the rare 5-game sweep over the Rockies today at 4:10pm ET / 1:10pm PT.
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| Thursday, August 4 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | San Diego Padres -305 vs Colorado Rockies +240 |
| Runline: | Padres -1.5 (-125) / Rockies +1.5 (+105) |
| Total: | 7.5 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
| Game Time: | 4:10pm ET / 1:10pm PT |
| Where: | Petco Park in San Diego, CA |
| Weather: | 80 Degrees / Clear |
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Analysis
The San Diego Padres host the Colorado Rockies Thursday afternoon in the finale of their five-game series. Southpaw Kyle Freeland takes the bump against Padres right-handed ace Joe Musgrove, first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM EDT / 1:10 PDT.
Although he got a 5-year, $64.5 million extension from the Rockies back in April, Kyle Freeland hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations from the Rockies in 2022. He’s posted a 4.63 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP in 20 starts and 114.2 innings with 82 strikeouts.
It’s Been a Rocky Season For Colorado
I’ve never been able to figure out why the Rockies’ front office has made certain moves over the years, but my guess is they gave Freeland the new deal because he knew how to pitch at altitude.
That theory hasn’t held water this year, as he has a 5.55 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 61.2 innings of work at Coors Field. However, he has pitched well on the road with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in nine starts and 53.0 innings.
Just like in most prior seasons, the Rockies haven’t hit well away from Coors Field. The Rockies struggle against right-handed pitching on the road, as they’re 29th with a .612 OPS in this category with a meager .221 team average. And they’re facing one of the best pitchers in the National League in Java Joe.
Musgrove Mowing Down Competition
Joe Musgrove has pitched like the Padres thought he would at the start of this season – as a staff ace and Cy Young award winning contender. Java Joe has put up great numbers, with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in 18 starts and 115.1 innings. He’s also struck out 114, allowed 11 home runs and 27 walks.
He’s pitched somewhat better at home than on the road, with a 2.29 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 51.0 innings and eight starts. This doesn’t bode well for a Rockies club that really struggles to hit right-handers away from Coors Field.
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Prediction
This has been an unusual week for both teams with a five-game series in four days, and the addition of Soto and Bell to the Padres. Baseball players are creatures of habit, and I think it could take the Padres a little while to get comfortable with their new lineup and teammates.
Although Kyle Freeland hasn’t had a great season, he has pitched well on the road this year with a sub-4.00 ERA. His only start at Petco Park was a good one, and the Padres are in the bottom 10 in teams for OPS at home versus left-handed pitchers.
I see this contest as a low-scoring pitcher’s duel on getaway day, that’s why I’ll take the full game under total runs scored.
Prediction: Under 7.5 Total Runs Scored (-105)
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, August 4
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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