San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Betting Odds June 23
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies betting preview for Thursday, June 23. The Padres have won three straight heading into their 4-game series with the Phillies.
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| Thursday, June 23 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | San Diego Padres -142 vs Philadelphia Phillies +132 |
| Runline: | Padres -1.5 (+145) / Phillies +1.5 (-165) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -120 / Under -100) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | Petco Park in San Diego, CA |
| Weather: | 65 Degrees / Clear |
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres in the first of a four game series. The Phils lost two games in Texas to the Rangers, while the Padres swept three games from Arizona.
The Padres have a record of 44-27 and are tied with the Dodgers for 1st in the NL West. The Phillies are 36-34 in 3rd place and 8.5 games behind the Mets in the NL East. Southpaw Ranger Suarez gets the start against Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Phillies had a good run of baseball after firing manager Joe Girardi, but have now lost three in a row – and their offense has regressed.
The Fighting Phils have a 17th best OPS against right handers at .711 and a .243 team average. That’s not good news going against one of the best right handers in the National League in Musgrove.
Starter Ranger Suarez has posted below average numbers this season. In 13 starts and 65.0 innings, he has a 4.43 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP with 54 strikeouts. The Phillies’ southpaw has limited home runs to only seven this season, but has had a problem with control as he’s issued 29 walks.
That comes out to just under 4.5 free passes per nine innings. This isn’t good against a patient Padres lineup with the 5th most walks in MLB at 254.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Musgrove is the Padres #1 pitcher, and has the numbers to back it up. In 12 starts and 79.0 innings, Java Joe has a 1.59 ERA, a WHIP of 0.92 with 81 strikeouts.
All of his starts have been quality starts – at least 6.0 innings and three earned runs or less – and hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of his outings. He could be due for some negative regression, but I won’t bet against Musgrove anytime soon.
After losing Manny Machado to an ankle injury in Colorado on Sunday, the Padres have rallied to win three in a row versus Arizona, with the first two in extra innings.
San Diego also hits left-handed pitching well, with a 9th best OPS of .751 and a .254 team batting average. Even without Machado and Tatis Jr., the home team should be able to do some damage against a struggling Ranger Suarez.
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Padres have the edge with Musgrove over Suarez, have a better bullpen than the Phillies and hit southpaws better than the Phils hit right-handers.
The books think it’ll be a low scoring game with a total of 7. However, San Diego isn’t as big of a favorite as I thought they would be at just -150. I don’t like leaving low scoring full games up to chance with any bullpen. even one as good as the Padres.
That’s why I’ll take the home team on the 1st 5 innings moneyline, and feel free to sprinkle a little bit on the 1st 5 run line.
Prediction: Padres 1st 5 Innings Moneyline
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, June 23
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WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s baseball games, including this San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies National League showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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