San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Betting Odds June 24
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies betting preview for Friday, June 24. The Phillies continue to storm back in the NL East down only eight games and the Padres sit one game back of the Dodgers in the NL West.
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| Friday, June 24 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | San Diego Padres +115 vs Philadelphia Phillies -125 |
| Runline: | Padres +1.5 (+125) / Phillies -1.5 (-145) |
| Total: | 8.5 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
| Game Time: | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Where: | Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ |
| Weather: | Retractable Roof |
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies take on the San Diego Padres in the second of a four game series. The visitors beat the home team Thursday night 6-2, powered by Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto home runs.
It’s a good Friday night pitching matchup as Aaron Nola takes the bump against MacKenzie Gore.The Phils are a road favorite at -130, the Friars a home dog at +110, and the run total is 7.5.
Philadelphia has a 37-34 record that’s good for 3rd in the NL East, 8.0 games behind the Mets. San Diego is 44-28, 1.0 game behind the Dodgers in second place in the NL West.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Although they struggled at the dish before Thursday night’s game, the Fighting Phils can mash against left handed pitching.
They have a 5th best OPS of .777 and a .255 team batting average. They’re 9th best overall with a .751 OPS and a .247 team average, and tied with the Blue Jays for the 5th most home runs at 90.
Aaron Nola has put up some pretty good numbers this season. In 14 starts and 89.2 innings, he has a 3.11 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 99 strikeouts.
He gave up nine home runs in April and May, but has only allowed one long fly in the month of June. Nola’s control has been excellent, allowing only 11 free passes all season – that comes to just over one per nine innings.
The Achilles Heel of this team is the bullpen, as they’re tied with the Pirates with the 19th best ERA at 4.24. If their relievers can hold leads at the end of games, they’ll be in contention for a playoff berth in the fall.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
San Diego has relied on good pitching and timely hitting for their success in 2022, along with the guidance of veteran manager Bob Melvin – who I think could be in the running for Manager of the Year.
The Padres hitting has been about average, and they’re 19th best against right handed pitchers with a .692 OPS and a .241 team batting average.
After a good start to his rookie season, MacKenzie Gore has hit a rough patch in his last two starts against the Colorado Rockies. He’s got great strikeout stuff, but gives up a lot of hard contact.
His advanced analytics give me some cause for pause, as he’s in the bottom 20th percentile in Hard Hit rate and lowest 22th percentile in walk %. When this Phillies lineup gets in a hitting groove, they can do some real damage at the plate.
San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
The Phillies got off to a great start against Joe Musgrove, and I think they’ll carry that momentum into game two of the series against a less experienced pitcher like Gore. That’s why I’ll take Philadelphia on the moneyline.
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -125
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Friday, June 24
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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