Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction and Betting Odds June 29
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles betting preview for Wednesday, June 29. The Mariners and Orioles will play their final regular season meeting today with the Mariners taking three of five games so far in their season series.
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| Wednesday, June 29 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Seattle Mariners -135 vs Baltimore Orioles +125 |
| Runline: | Mariners -1.5 (+145) / Orioles +1.5 (-165) |
| Total: | 8 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
| Game Time: | 4:10pm ET / 1:10pm PT |
| Where: | T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA |
| Weather: | Retractable Roof |
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Analysis
The Baltimore Orioles take on the Seattle Mariners in the Emerald City in the last of a three game series. It’s a battle of right handers with Austin Voth taking the mound against Chris Flexen.
As of Tuesday night, the Mariners were home favorites at -140, the Orioles +120 underdogs and the run total was 8.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Austin Voth is a relief pitcher who’s making the jump to become a starter. He’s made 24 appearances and two starts in 27.2 innings, with a 7.81 ERA, a 1.92 WHIP and 28 strikeouts.
His advanced analytics numbers aren’t much better than his ERA or WHIP. In each of these categories – xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, xOBP and xERA – he’s in the bottom 12th percentile or lower. Voth is only in the top half of MLB pitchers in the BB% and Exit Velocity categories.
His career numbers aren’t a lot better over 190 innings with a 5.57 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. I guess the Orioles see something in the young pitcher to bring him into the starting rotation. While Voth may be a better pitcher later this year or in 2023, I have a hard time backing him in his current form. If they weren’t in a brutally tough AL East, the Orioles would be recognized more for their improved play.
While they’re last in their division 20 games behind the white-hot Yankees, they’re still 35-40 – a lot better than most baseball analysts thought they’d be this year. The O’s are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and have a respectable 17-23 road record.
Although they’re 20th overall in MLB with a 4.03 ERA, their bullpen is one of the best in baseball with a 3rd lowest ERA of 3.05 with a 1.20 WHIP. Their starting pitching has performed a lot better in the last couple of weeks, as they’ve given up four total runs or less in 10 of their last 11 games.
I think the O’s are still undervalued by the market, and I see them as a bet-on team going forward – especially outside of the AL East.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
Chris Flexen has had a shaky 2022 season for the Mariners. In 14 starts and 77.1 innings, the right hander has a 4.31 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP with 55 strikeouts.
His advanced analytics aren’t a lot better, as he’s in the 13th percentile or lower in eight different categories. I don’t like his chances against a Baltimore squad that’s scored four or more runs in five of their last six games.
The M’s are slightly below average at the plate with an 18th best OPS of .697 and a team batting average of .232. The pitching has been solid for Seattle with a 12th best staff ERA of 3.80 with a 1.22 WHIP.
Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Both starting pitchers have bad traditional pitching numbers and advanced analytics. Although neither the Orioles or Mariners are great hitting teams against right handers, I think both lineups should have some success against the opposing hurler.
A run total of 8 with Voth and Flexen as your starting pitchers seems low. This should go up to 8.5 or 9 as we get closer to game time. That’s why I like the full game over total runs scored.
Prediction: Over 8-9 Total Runs Scored
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Wednesday, June 29
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WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Wednesday’s baseball games, including this Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles American League showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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