Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Betting Prediction and Best Odds September 14

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick: The Preview

WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Wednesday’s Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres clash at T-Mobile Park. Both the Mariners and Padres sit in second place of their respective divisions.

Wednesday, September 14	MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars
Moneyline:	Seattle Mariners -160 vs San Diego Padres +135
Runline:	Mariners -1.5 (+140) / Padres +1.5 (-160)
Total:	7.5 Runs (Over +100 / Under -120)
Game Time:	4:10pm ET / 1:10pm PT
Where:	T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA
Weather:	Retractable Roof

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Analysis

The Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres in the last of a two-game series. Yu Darvish pitched 8.0 strong shutout innings, and Josh Hader got the save to carry the Friars to a 2-0 win.

This afternoon it’ll be Mike Clevinger taking the bump against Luis Castillo, first pitch at T-Mobile Park scheduled for 4:10 PM EDT / 1:10 PM PDT.

Seattle is tied with Tampa Bay for the second and third wild card spots, 5.0 games ahead of Baltimore with 21 games left. San Diego is 78-64 and 2.0 games ahead of Milwaukee for the third and final wild card berth, and 20 games left in their schedule.

Caesar’s Sportsbook has the Mariners as a -160 favorite, the Padres as a +135 underdog, and the over/under is set at 7.5.

Padres Look to Even Season Series

Good pitching has carried the Padres to where they are this season, and it may have to carry them into the postseason.

Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are darn good #1 through #3 starting pitchers, and should keep them competitive the next few weeks and into the playoffs – if they can hold off the Brewers.

However, even with the addition of Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the San Diego bats have been relatively quiet the past few weeks. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitchers, the Friars are 26th in team OPS and 29th in batting average, and 20th overall the last 30 days in team OPS and average.

Last night’s game showed the Padres can win a low-scoring pitcher’s duel, but low run support puts a lot of pressure on your hurlers. And when one of your pitchers has an off night, this puts your team behind the 8-ball if your offense struggles to score runs.

Mike Clevinger has struggled with injuries this season, and hasn’t pitched as well as he did in Cleveland. In 18 starts and 93.2 innings, he’s put up a 4.13 ERA plus a 1.19 WHIP. The right-hander hasn’t been an innings eater, averaging just about 5.0 innings per outing.

He doesn’t have the overpowering stuff he used to, as he’s had four or less strikeouts in his last seven starts, but most of the time, he’s kept his team in games before turning it over to the bullpen.

Castillo Fitting In Seattle

The Mariners pitching staff is one of the best in baseball with the 5th lowest staff ERA. Anchored by their top three starters, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo – and backed up by a bullpen with the 7th lowest ERA and 2nd lowest WHIP – they should be a dangerous team in the postseason.

Although Seattle hasn’t been the most consistent hitting team this year – 17th in team OPS and 26th in batting average – they’ve dialed long distance to get offense when they’ve needed it, as they’re 10th best in home runs. They’re improving down the stretch, with the 10th best team OPS versus right-handers the last 30 days.

Luis Castillo has been a great addition to the Mariners’ rotation, giving them a third top-line starter. He has pitched well in his seven starts in Seattle with a sub-3.00 ERA, a WHIP under 1.10, and averaging over a strikeout per inning.

The hard-throwing right-hander gets to pitch in a more pitcher-friendly yard, T-Mobile Park, instead of the hitter-friendly bandbox, the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Castillo is in better current form than Clevinger, and I think Seattle will bounce back after last night’s sub-par performance at the plate.

Although they gave up a late run last night, the Mariners have a better bullpen than San Diego. The relief pitching should come into play, as the Padres’ right-hander doesn’t usually go past the 5th or 6th inning in most starts. That’s why I’ll take Seattle on the moneyline.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners Moneyline

First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Wednesday, September 14

Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Tuesday’s baseball games, including this Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres showdown, from your desktop or phone.

**************************************************

Meet the Author

Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.