Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Prediction and Best Odds September 29
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick: The Preview
WagerTalk MLB analyst Brian Ochsner offers his analysis of Thursday’s Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers clash at T-Mobile Park. The more the Mariners win, the sooner they will clinch an AL Wildcard berth.
| Thursday, September 29 | MLB Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars |
|---|---|
| Moneyline: | Seattle Mariners -114 vs Texas Rangers +104 |
| Runline: | Mariners -1.5 (+180) / Rangers +1.5 (-210) |
| Total: | 7 Runs (Over -115 / Under -105) |
| Game Time: | 6:10pm ET / 3:10pm PT |
| Where: | T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA |
| Weather: | Retractable Roof |
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Analysis
The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers Thursday night in the rubber match of their three-game series. The M’s got a 3-1 win last night, and will send southpaw Marco Gonzales to the mound against right-hander Jon Gray.
First pitch is set for 9:40 PM EDT / 6:40 PDT in T-Mobile Park. Texas has been out of playoff contention for a while, and Seattle still has the 3rd wild card spot, 4.5 games up on Baltimore with 8 to play.
Gray Gets The Call
Although Texas has underperformed expectations this year, Jon Gray has been a solid starter for the Rangers in 2022. In 22 starts and 116.1 innings, he’s posted a 7-7 record with a 3.64 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.
He’s given up fewer home runs and walks away from Coors Field, and the Opponents’ Batting Average (OBA) is 28 points less (.217 compared to .245 in 2021). Gray also averages more than one strikeout per inning, a great metric for a major league pitcher.
While the Rangers have been an average hitting club overall – 16th in OPS – they’ve hit left-handed pitching pretty well, with a 10th best OPS versus southpaws of .755.
Their strikeout rate is a problem as they’re 8th worst in MLB, but Texas makes up for it with the long ball as they’re 9th best in home runs.
When you look at their stats for the month of September, they’re playing like a team that’s out of playoff contention.
They have a .229/.291/.383 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage, also known as “slash line”) in 804 at-bats, with only 38 extra-base hits and 28 big flies. The pitching isn’t much better with a 4.74 staff ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .263 OBA.
Mariners Almost In Playoffs
Marco Gonzales has had what you’d call an OK season for the Mariners. In 30 starts and 171 innings, he’s posted a 10-15 record with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
The southpaw doesn’t have overpowering stuff, with just 94 strikeouts – that comes to almost 5 strikeouts per nine innings of work. Not the ratio you want to see at the major league level.
And he hasn’t pitched well against the Rangers this season. In three starts he’s put up a 1-2 record with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, and has given up five runs or more in two of the three outings.
The Mariners have held on to the final wild card spot, even though they haven’t played well as of late, going 4-6 in their last 10. The M’s are missing their star rookie Julio Rodriguez with back spasms, and the pitching isn’t in good recent form with a 4.90 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in the last two weeks.
Seattle needs to play much better this last week of the season to get some momentum into their first-round matchup. Otherwise, they could make a quick exit from the postseason.
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction
Neither team is in great current form, and both lineups have hit the opposing starters pretty well. Seattle has owned the Rangers this year with a 12-5 head-to-head record, and the Mariners have to more to play for than the Rangers do.
This isn’t a game I’m running to the window or mobile app to bet, but because they’re a better team playing at home, I’ll lean to Seattle on the moneyline.
Prediction: Seattle Mariners Moneyline
First Pitch | MLB Predictions for Thursday, September 29
Join Drew Martin and a rotating panel of guests for First Pitch as we break down the daily baseball slate from a betting perspective. Join WagerTalk’s team of MLB betting experts every weekday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT for First Pitch as we discuss the baseball betting slate.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the MLB moneylines, run lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s baseball games, including this Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Brian Ochsner graduated from Kansas State University with degrees in Accounting and Agribusiness. He’s a life-long baseball fan and “numbers guy” who tolerates the Colorado Rockies (bad ownership), and is a Denver Broncos and Kansas State Wildcats fan. Along with his interest in the sports wagering industry, he enjoys eating good BBQ, reading books on marketing, finance and economics, and playing Texas Hold ‘Em poker.
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