Updated AL MVP Odds – July 20th
Updated American League MVP Odds and Analysis
When you look at the sportsbooks, this has seemingly turned into a two man race as we have reached the mid-summers classic. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge sit well ahead of the rest in the American League, with Shohei Ohtani currently leading the way at -115. Read updated AL MVP odds and analysis by Sportsmemo MLB handicapper JM Sports! Stay up-to-date with the current odds from DraftKings!
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| American League Players | Updated AL MVP Odds on July 20th |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | -115 |
| Aaron Judge | +150 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +1000 |
| Mike Trout | +1500 |
| Rafael Devers | +1800 |
| Jose Ramirez | +3000 |
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Shohei Ohtani
As I mentioned, Shohei Ohtani is the odds end favorite to walk away with the MVP trophy at the end of the season, currently sitting as the only player in either league to come in at negative odds.
In my opinion, Ohtani is one half of a perfect example in discussion of what the MVP award is truly all about. Is it the most valuable player to his team specifically? Or does the standings and performance of your team play a role in this individual award?
Ohtani’s most impressive impact on the team this season has been the fact that he is responsible for over 24% of the teams runs this season.
Although that team is just 39-53 on the season, and 20.5 games back of Houston and 10.5 games out of the wildcard, a record that is good for 4th place in the AL West. Ohtani has been one of the main run producers on this team and ranks in the top 20 in both RBIs and HRs this season, smashing 19 bombs and driving in 56 runs.
He has been able to produce this season, but that is reliant on him being able to put the bat on the ball, when you negate the impressive fact that he is also a pitcher, improving his .258 batting average this season would vastly improve his production numbers and truly solidify him as the MVP of the season.
Aaron Judge
Now comes the second half of the debate on whether a teams output effects an individual award, because there is no questioning the fact that the New York Yankees are a far more impressive team than the Angels this season.
Aaron Judge currently ranks 2nd in the American League MVP odds, sitting at (+150) and has dominated across the board statistically. Judge ranks 3rd in the MLB in OPS (.983) and 3rd in RBIs (70), while simultaneously leading the league in HRs (33) and runs scored (74).
He is responsible for over 22% of the Yankees run scored this season, but Judge is responsible for 23 more runs than Ohtani, showing the multitude of runs that are put up by the Yankees.
The Yankees currently hold the best record in the MLB, they are in 1st place in the best division in baseball, and Judge is currently the best player on the best team in baseball.
Judge is currently hitting just .284 (34th best in the league) but he has still been able to dominate in nearly every other statistical category.
Yordan Alvarez
In 3rd place in the American League MVP odds, there is a significant jump, as Judge was at (+150), followed by Houston’s Yordan Alvarez at (+1000). Although, out of everyone on this list he is the only offensive player that ranks in the top 20 in the MLB in batting average, OPS, HRs, RBIs and runs scored!
He is responsible for a higher percentage of runs than Aaron Judge and his .306 batting average (12th) has increased the opportunity for production with the multitude of hits that he has compiled.
Alvarez leads the league in OPS with a 1.058, skyrocketed by his 26 HRs (4th in the MLB). Those 26 HRs have also propelled him to the top 15 in RBIs (11th ; 60) and runs scored (12th ; 57).
Alvarez is responsible for 22.6% of Houston’s runs, assisting in 91 runs on the season, which has helped keep Houston atop the AL West and continuing to fight for the top spot in the AL.
Houston is currently 59-32 and if Yordan and Houston continue these trends, Alvarez could be fighting for an MVP and a triple crown while Houston could be chasing the pennant.
Mike Trout
It may be hard to imagine that when you look at the top 7 players in the odds rankings, the only team in the American League that has two players on this list is the 39-53, Los Angeles Angels.
Yet, when you look at their roster Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani were both players to watch at the beginning of the season and Mike Trout comes in currently ranked in 4th at (+1500). Statistically, Mike Trout has put up a better season than Ohtani in nearly every category.
Trout is hitting .270 (56th), .012 points ahead of Ohtani, while his OPS of .967 is the 5th best in the league, well ahead of Ohtani’s .835. Trout has hit five more HRs and scored four more runs, but then the debate returns, does the fact that Trout is responsible for less runs, thus contributing less, factor into his odds?
Trout doesn’t pitch, does that make him less valuable? Trout has had an impressive season on a sub-par team, a season that is seemingly more impressive than the odds on leader, but Ohtani isn’t the only one standing in Trout’s way currently.
Rafael Devers
For 5th place, we head back to the AL East, and while the Boston Red Sox are currently in 4th place in the division, and 16.5 games behind the Yankees, they are just 2 games back of the wild card and they have a potential MVP candidate in Rafael Devers.
Devers is currently at (+1800) and while Yordan Alvarez was the only player on this list to rank in the top 20 in 5 categories, Devers’ is the only player on this list to rank in the top 10 in 4 of the major offensive statistics.
Devers is the only person in the top 7 to rank in the top 10 in batting average, hitting an impressive .324. He has the 4th best OPS at .980, which has been a result of the 9th most HRs in the league (22) and has helped him score 62 runs on the season (5th most in the MLB).
He’s responsible for over 22% of the Red Sox’s runs on the year, playing a part in 95 runs for this Boston offense this year. 4th place in the AL East would put them in 2nd place in some other divisions, both Boston and Devers may be down, but they definitely aren’t out of their respective races.
Jose Ramirez
For the first time in this list we see a player from the AL Central, which is also the only division that doesn’t have an MVP candidate from their division leader in the top 7.
Sixth place in the odds comes from the 2nd place Cleveland Guardians, in the form of third baseman Jose Ramirez. Ramirez very well could be the winner in this chase if the award truly went to the most valuable player to his respective team.
Jose Ramirez may not lead the league across the board statistically, but it is hard to question Ramirez’s importance to this Cleveland baseball team. There isn’t a player in the top 7 (AL or NL) in the MVP odds chase that is responsible for a higher percentage of his teams runs this season than Jose Ramirez.
He’s has contributed 109 runs this season, which is nearly 28% of the Guardian’s total runs produced this season. Jose Ramirez is currently sitting at (+3000), but he has the 6th best OPS in the league (.944), the 18th most HRs (19) and he currently leads the American League in RBIs with 75 (2nd in the MLB).
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