2024 PFL Week 1 Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 4

2024 PFL Week 1 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his 2024 PFL Week 1 predictions and picks for April 4th with Ante Delija and Valentin Moldavsky headlining in the main event. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Boeing Center at Tech Port in San Antonio, TX!

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2024 PFL Week 1 Info

Thursday, April 4	2024 PFL Week 1 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Main Event:	Ante Delija -120 vs Valentin Moldavsky -105
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Boeing Center at Tech Port, San Antonio, TX
TV:	ESPN2

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2024 PFL Week 1 Predictions

Marcelo Golm -180 vs Daniel James +150

After a couple of fights have been canceled, Golm will now get a rematch against Daniel James who knocked out Golm a year ago.

Golm was preparing for Heiderman, but I don’t think the game plan changes for him as he’ll try and clinch James and wear him down so he can avoid the big strikes.

James had success against Golm and Tyrell Fortune in the striking game, but he lost his last fight to Saricam who avoided the big strikes and used his takedowns to get the decision win. I’ll take a sprinkle on James though.

He only needs to land a couple of his big shots to wobble Golm and get out of those close situations. It’s not a big play, but with the chaos of switching fighters, the underdog is worth the play.

Lucas Brennan -900 vs Dimitre Ivy +600

If you haven’t seen Lucas Brennan fight, it’s really something. He pushes forward from the beginning til the end of the fight, and he’s constantly looking to get to his opponent’s back, but last fight we got to see him on the feet and at range for parts of it, and it’s obvious he needs work in that department.

I thought it was good that he went into round 1 in his last fight, and while he got the KO win there are some red flags that lead me to believe he’s going to suffer his first loss soon.

I just don’t think it’s going to be in this one. Ivy has plenty of experience, but he’s only 12-7, and his wins are against some really bad fighters, and I mentioned that Brennan has rough striking defense, but Ivy hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2018.

I don’t think this is a walk in the park for Brennan so I would advise to exercise caution about laying -900 on him in this one. He should win with his pressure, but don’t be shocked if Ivy has some moments.

Jena Bishop -238 vs Chelsea Hackett +195

Hackett is only 24 years old, and after losing on Contender Series as a favorite, she took almost 3 years off before beating Ky Bennett in the fall.

She got the submission win, but Ky Bennett is 3-3 as a pro, and isn’t very good. Bishop has an extensive grappling background, but I actually think her striking is where she’s going to have the advantage.

She seems to be more active on the feet, and she can set up her clinch and grappling, and with her experience and pressure, I’m not sure Hackett is going to do anything that Bishop can’t deal with.

I think it’s a close fight, but Bishop is the clear pick as Hackett offers little to no upside, and I think Bishop wears down Hackett en route to pretty convincing victory.

Kana Watanabe -305 vs Shannon Young +245

Young got cut from the UFC at the end of 2022 and fought in PFL a few months later, and although she got the win, it was a pretty bad performance against a bad opponent, and after the fight she talked about getting her CDL license for her new career.

Not a great sign that she’s all in on MMA. Watanabe is a solid grappler, and she is the better fighter, but there’s a big red flag and that is that this line was -425, and it dropped all the way down to -305 on Monday, and I have no idea why, but it’s enough to give me pause that something is going on that we may not know about.

I like Watanbe to win, but the line move has me scared so as of now I won’t play it, and see if any news comes out.

Oleg Popov -155 vs Steve Mowry +130

This should be a fun fight between two evenly-matched fighters. I think this boils down to the striking advantage that Lowry has vs the takedown advantage that Popov has.

Mowry has solid striking and good knees in the clinch, but I’ve watched him get taken down fairly easily so Popov is going to have to be careful when he shoots in, but if he avoids the counterstrikes and knees he’ll surely get to the legs and get Mowry down.

Popov has good cardio so he’ll stay active on the ground, but Mowry has a good get up game, I just don’t think Popov will let Mowry get the striking game going. Popov is my lean, but I will probably not bet this fight.

Dakota Ditcheva -1650 vs Lisa Mauldin +950

Quick writeup here. Ditcheva is a star in the making and has great power on the feet, and amazing cardio, and this should be a layup for her as Mauldin doesn’t have the athleticism or weapons to keep up. Just wait until the props come out and play Ditcheva by finish.

Liz Carmouche -238 vs Juliana Velasquez +195

This is the trilogy match between this two, but it’s been one-sided as Carmouch has finished Velasquez in their first two fights, and what’s strange is that Velasquez hasn’t fought anyone else besides Carmouche since 2021.

Before that, Velasques beat Kielholtz in a split win which isn’t a good look. Carmouche is older, but she’s former military and she hasn’t showed signs of slowing down as she brutalized Macfarlane’s leg in October and got the leg kick KO in round five so that shows her cardio is in great shape, and the only person to beat Carmouch since 2017 is Valentina Shevchenko in the UFC back in 2019.

Carmouch has won seven in a row since then, six by finish and if/when she gets Velasquez on the ground, it’s going to be massive advantage Carmouche.

I really don’t know where the advantage for Velasquez is in this fight, but it’s certainly not on the ground, and I don’t know if Velasquez can stop this fight from going to the ground. I’ll take Carmouche to get the third win in a row here.

Denis Goltsov -170 vs Linton Vassell +!42

I like this matchup as it should be fun to watch with both guys having finishing ability. Vassell has finished his last 2 wins, and Goltsov has finished his last 3 wins, and with this being week 1 of the tourney, both guys will want the finish for maximum points.

Goltsov will probably try to get Vasell to the ground where Goltsov will have a big advantage, but Vassell certainly has KO power, and Goltsov has only been finished once recently, and that was to Renan Ferreira.

I like Goltsov to win, but just wait til props come out and take Goltsov inside the distance. Goltsov is very clever in how he gets guys to the ground, and it only takes one mistake from Vassell and Goltsov will have the submission or ground-and-pound win. Goltov by finish is the play.

2024 PFL Week 1 Main Event: Ante Delija -115 vs Valentin Moldavsky -105

Honestly, I don’t have a passionate side on this fight.

I lean Delija as you can see some holes in Moldavsky recently as he’s lost to Vassell and Bader, and although he beat Mowry, it was just an ok performance as he took Mowry down quite a few times, but Mowry was able to get up several times, and it just didn’t look like an elite performance.

Delija has had a lot of success in PFL, and his only losses in PFL are to Bruno Cappelozza, and Cappelozza was suspended for a positive drug test later on.

I can’t put a bet on Delija though because I do worry about Moldavsky getting Delija on the ground and controlling him there. I think Delija can win the striking battle fairly easy, but I’m not confident enough to bet it

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