DWCS Week 5: Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 10

DWCS Week 5 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his Week 5 DWCS picks and predictions for September 10th with the main event headlined by Navajo Stirling vs Phil Latu in a light heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Navajo Stirling vs Phil Latu: DWCS Week 5

Tuesday, September 10	Dana White Contender Series Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Navajo Stirling -260 vs Phil Latu +200
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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DWCS 5 Predictions

Corinne Laframboise -130 vs Nicole Caliari +110

There’s not much film I can watch on Caliari as the promotion she was fighting for has the videos blocked in the US so the film I can see is pretty old, and not that helpful.

I watched Kay Hansen take her down and control her, and I didn’t see great striking from her, but again…no recent film so I can’t say for sure how good she’s been recently.

Laframboise has certainly fought the better competition as she’s lost to Manon Fiorot, and Jamey Lyn Horth, 2 UFC fighters, and also Jade Masson-Wong who’s done well in BKFC.

She’s easily finished her last 3 opponents in UAE, by submission and KO, and I like her skills. I would lean her to win, but without seeing film on Caliari I can’t say it’s a definitive pick.

Otar Tanzilov -270 vs Josias Musasa +210

This is another fight where good film is hard to find, but I can see enough to know I don’t want to lay this price on Tanzilov. He’s 26 years old, but hasn’t fought in a year and a half, and his fights have looked odd to me.

I’ve seen him have some really crisp striking, good jabs, great quickness on the feet, but I see him with his hands down a lot, and in his last fight his opponent was able to take him down and control him for big moments until the third round where Tanzilov got the takedown and laid on him for the whole round. Musasa has some really violent finishes, but they’re against awful opponents which Tanzilov isn’t.

He’s already fought several times in 2024 so we have a fighter who’s active and has a lot of quick finishes against horrific opponents against a fighter who hasn’t fought in a long time who has shown big holes in his game, along with upside. This is a dog or pass situation for me, but I won’t be betting it.

Yousri Belgaroui -400 vs Taiga Iwasaki +300

I’m all in on Belgaroui in this one. He was on Contender Series last season against Tulio, and I thought it was a great fight where Belgaroui was an underdog, and he held his own, and now Tulio is in the UFC.

Belgaroui has 2 wins since Contender Series, and I think he wins here. His length is his biggest advantage as his legs and arms are so long, and he knows how to keep the distance to where he can land strikes, but it’s really difficult for his opponents to land.

His leg kicks and elbows do a lot of damage, and I think he’ll have the opportunity to land both. Iwasaki doesn’t impress me as he beat some truly awful fighters to start his career…all with losing or .500 records…but in his last 2 fights he fought guys with winning records and he lost one, and won a decision win a a really boring fight where the volume of striking wasn’t there.

This is by far the toughest fighter Iwasaki has faced, and I think Belgaroui has already faced multiple fighters better than Iwasaki. I think Belgaroui wins, probably by finish.

Kody Steele -220 vs Quemuel Ottoni +180

Ottoni hasn’t fought in over 2 years as he’s had several fights cancelled, but that’s a long time without a fight. He looks to have good striking, but I don’t think he’s fought anyone who’s going to pressure him like Steele is going to.

Ottoni is going to be taller, and he’s going to have the reach advantage, but Steele is going to close the distance, force the clinch and wrestling and try and land shots inside to tire Ottoni out.

Steele’s pressure is relentless, but I think Ottoni’s striking can be sneaky powerful, I just don’t think it’s going to be enough here.

Steele is powerful, he’s a finisher, and that pressure and clinch he can put on his opponents just wears them out and zaps their energy. Steele is the pick.

DWCS Week 5 Main Event: Navajo Stirling -260 vs Phillip Latu +200

This is a really steep price on a guy who’s only had 4 pro fights, and they haven’t been against amazing fighters, but I’ll give him credit for finishing his last 3 fights.

He looks athletic, but I think he needs more experience before I can bet on him as a big favorite. His striking has power, but he doesn’t look comfortable on his feet, he looks indecisive at times, and he’s benefitted from fighting guys who haven’t tested that inexperience.

Latu is 6-1 in MMA, but he has kickboxing fights on his resume, and while he doesn’t look as shredded as Stirling, I think he’s going to be a problem. He has striking that can really do some damage, and he’s just a tough guy who fights with confidence.

This reminds me of the Will Currie fight from last week where Currie looked the part, and was a big favorite, but he didn’t have the goods when it came time to perform on the big stage. Not only would I not bet on Stirling, I’ll take a sprinkle on Latu at plus money.

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