DWCS Week 8: Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 1

DWCS Week 8 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his Week 8 DWCS picks and predictions for October 1st with the main event headlined by Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bartosz Szewczyk in a light heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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DWCS Week 8: Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bartosz Szewczyk

Tuesday, October 1	Dana White Contender Series Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bartosz Szewczyk
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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DWCS 8 Predictions

Jacobe Smith -800 vs Christien Savoie +550

This should be a great fight as both guys have big time power and finishing ability. Smith has shown he can get takedowns and hold opponents down for the entire round and land good ground and pound, but he doesn’t go for submissions, and his style is to just maul and overpower opponents.

It’s worked so far, but Savoie isn’t going to be a pushover. Savoie was in an absolute war in his last fight and he got the round 4 KO, so we’ve seen him battle-tested.

Smith is going to try to get the huge KO punch early, and he will probably shoot and wrestle if the KO shot doesn’t connect, but Savoie has good takedown defense, and really strong leg kicks so he has the weapons to keep Smith off of him, and in-fact, I think Savoie can do some damage to Smith that Smith hasn’t yet faced.

I think taking overs could be a sneaky way to play this fight as both guys have solid cardio, and Smith isn’t going to be able to just tee-off on Savoie like he has on other weak opponents.

This should be a really competitive match, I’ll slightly lean Smith, but I like overs in this fight from a betting perspective.

Abdullah Er-Ramy +215 vs Torrez Finney -265

I’m just done with the Torrez Finney experiment, and I’m not betting on him again. I’ve cashed on him in his 2 Contender Series fights, but his last fight was so unimpressive, and his cardio just doesn’t hold up.

He’s extremely powerful, but he’s too raw with his skills right now, and he’s ripe to be beaten. I can’t find a ton of film on Ramy, but he’s durable, and has won a fight that went the distance so I won’t be surprised if he wins a close decision.

This is not a fight where I want to bet on a side, it’s more of a warning to just not blindly bet on Finney because he has the hype.

David Martinez -180 vs Xavier Franklin +150

I like Martinez here ever so slightly as he has two straight wins by KO in the 4th round, and he’s shown amazing cardio so he can just wear his opponents down, and his volume of strikes and pace just doesn’t stop.

This is only 3 rounds, and Franklin has gone the distance in a 5 round fight so maybe that amounts to nothing, but I like Martinez’s striking to be more creative and crisp.

Franklin has the ability to wrestle, and that might be an advantage he has, but that’s not going to get you a contract on Contender Series.

Franklin doesn’t seem to have the volume that Martinez has and I don’t see Franklin getting the KO against a durable fighter like Martinez. I think this fight probably goes the distance so my pick is Martinez in a close decision.

Alberto Montes -305 vs Carlos Calderon +245

Montes has wicked submissions, and is a big favorite here, but he has holes in his game. His takedown defense isn’t great, and his wrestling is pretty bad honestly.

He has good foot movement on the feet, but he can let himself get pushed back as he tries to counter with strikes and submissions.

Calderon has good takedowns and wrestling, and I think that’s going to give Montes some real problems. If the fight gets to the ground, I think it gets really fun as both guys have good submission games, but they may cancel each other out, and this could be a fight that takes place some on the ground and some on the feet.

Calderon has 2 losses in a row 4 fights ago, but he’s responded with 2 really nice submission wins. I hate this price on Montes here as there are several paths to victory for Calderon so if you’re looking for an underdog, I think Calderon at +245 is a pretty solid play.

DWCS Week 8 Main Event: Diyar Nurgozhay vs Bartosz Szewczyk

This should be a brawl on the feet as both guys like to throw big strikes, but neither guy is a high volume striker so I don’t expect a ton of strikes, I expect a lot of strikes with deadly intent.

Szewczyk is going to be taller and will have the reach advantage, which is going to be a problem for Nurgozhay.

Nurgozhay is going to have to get inside that long jab to do damage, and he’s going to have to do it early because I’m not sold on his cardio.

He has some decision wins, but they were mostly because the opponent got more tired than him, and that’s a big red flag for me. He can wrestle, but with Szewczyk’s size advantage, if Nurgozhay shoots for the takedown and doesn’t get it, that means more energy used.

I would like to see a more diverse attack from Szewczyk, but it’s worked for him so far and he’ll be the pick.

I think his striking from distance is going to really frustrate Nurgozhay, and he should have the cardio advantage. I’ll take Szewczyk as the pick here.

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