PFL Championship Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 24

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his PFL Championship predictions and picks for November 24th with Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Clay Collard headlining in the main event. The main card starts up at 8:00pm ET from The Anthem in Washington D.C..

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PFL Championship Info

Friday, November 24	PFL Championship Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Main Event:	Olivier Aubin-Mercier -258 v Clay Collard +210
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -130 / Under +100)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 8:00pm ET / 5:00pm PT
Arena:	The Anthem in Washington D.C.
TV:	DAZN PPV

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PFL Championship Predictions

Denis Goltsov -238 v Renan Ferreira +195

Both guys can strike, and I believe Ferreira probably has the better power at this point, but this fight comes down to the takedowns and ground game of Goltsov.

If he gets Ferreira down, it eliminates the danger of the strikes of Ferreira and it will let Goltsov eat away the clock while looking for submissions and ground and pound.

Goltsove has been in almost 40 fights, he’s a smart veteran who should take the path of least resistance to win the Championship and the money.

I haven’t heard or seen anything about Ferreira working his tail off on takedown defense so I think Goltsov doesn’t screw around in this fight, and I won’t screw around either.

Goltsov to win, but when props come out I will be interested to see what the line is for this fight to not go the distance, or to not start round three. If Ferreira wins, it will be by KO, and Gotsov can absolutely finish Ferreira on the ground.

Larissa Pacheco -700 v Marina Mokhnatkina +500

Pacheco has steamrolled through the competition this season, and you have to go back to 2019 to find the last time she lost and that was to Kayla Harrison who was in her prime.

Pacheco got her revenge in last years Championship as she beat Harrison by decision, and she’s the favorite to repeat for a reason.

Her first fight of the season her energy and cardio looked a bit off, but she stil managed to win over Julia Budd and in the next two fights she got back to doing what she does best which is overwhelming with power as she finished Amber Leibrock and Olena Kolesnyk in less than a minute COMBINED.

Mokhnatkina is 7 years older than Pacheco, and has won 5 in a row, but against weak competition, and she struggled against Evelyn Martins in June which was a big red flag.

Mokhatina got a take down early in that fight, but after the first round her takedown attempts looked bad as Martins landed a lot of leg kicks to damage Mokhnatkina, and even though Mokhnatina got a couple more takedowns, Martins was able to get up every time.

Mokhnatina has a couple of first round finishes this season, but they were against bad opponents and she won’t do that against a tank like Pacheco.

I don’t think Mokhnatkina has the weapons to damage or hold down Pacheco in this fight, I’ll take Pacheco to win in dominant fashion.

Magomed Magomedkerimov -166 v Sadibou Sy +140

Sadibou Sy started off the season with two nice finishes, and I thought that we might be seeing him take a big step forward where he turns into a dominant fighter that’s unstoppable.

Then I watched Carlos Leal take him to a split decision where Leal controlled big chunks of the fight with his wrestling, and holding him against the fence, and it just looks like Sy is a front runner who looks great against bad competition.

Magomedkerimov is getting up there in age, and his cardio has looked a bit suspect recently, but his wrestling advantage should be the difference here.

The last time Sy lost was to Magomedkerimov, and we also have a sports betting theory in play here about fading athletes when they have a new baby recently born, or almost born and Sadibou Sy has a new baby.

Having a new baby completely changes mindset, and it a lot of cases, sleep schedule and energy. I’ll take Magomedkerimov to win a close fight with the wrestling and takedowns being the difference.

Impa Kasanganay -175 v Joshua Silveira +170

We’ve been big supporters with our money of Impa since he entered PFL. He was cut from UFC, and I think that was a mistake as he’s undefeated in the PFL, and winning this fight will be the ultimate redemption for him.

He keeps getting better with each PFL fight, and he’s shown he can win by many different ways as he’s won by first round KO twice in the PFL, he’s shown his wrestling and submission ability, and his cardio as he won by decision against Cory Hendricks.

Josh Silveira is a decent fighter, but his 12-1 record isn’t impressive. He has absolutely CAKEWALKED into this finale as he beat Sam Kei who is one of the worst PFL fighters.

He beat Delan Monte who tore his ACL 1:30 into the fight and had to quit, and in his last fight he fought Ty Flores who isn’t very good, and although Josh won in round 1, when you look at that fight, Silveira won the first half of the round, but was gassing really quick.

Flores was starting to take over before Silveira landed knees in the clinch right before the end of round 1. If Silveira didn’t land those knees, I believe he was on his way to losing the next two rounds or getting finished as his cardio was leaving him in a hurry.

Impa has the better cardio, and this is a big step up in competition for Silveira. In last years tournament, Silveira lost to another former UFC fighter in Omari Akhmedov, and Omari is way past his prime.

Impa continues to be undervalued in my opinion, and I think he outclasses Silveira in striking, wrestling and cardio en route to a victory.

Jesus Pinedo -122 v Gabriel Braga +102

I liked Pinedo to win this fight when he was an underdog, and apparently I wasn’t the only one as the lines have flipped. The difference is going to be the striking from Pinedo in my opinion.

These two fought in April in a very close match with Braga winning by split decision, and I like the Pinedo has the revenge angle here.

Braga almost didn’t make to the finals as he won a split decision against Chris Wade, so he’s survived two split decisions this season, and he won by KO of the glassiest chin in MMA over Marlon Moraes.

Pinedo has stunned the PFL by not only beating Loughnane and Jenkins in his last two fights, but he’s knocked both of them out. I don’t want to bet against Pinedo and his power, and I think he has the higher ceiling, and with the revenge factor I like him to come out on top of Braga.

PFL Championship Main Event: Olivier Aubin-Mercier -258 v Clay Collard +210

I’m not a big fan of Clay Collard as I don’t think he’s as good or as exciting as people want to tell me he is, but there’s something that tells me he can pull the upset in this one.

OAM will definitely try and use his wrestling to control time and distance, and he doesn’t want to get into an all out boxing match with Collard, but Collard is coming off his best fight ever in my opinion where he beat Shane Burgos in a war.

Mercier hasn’t been in one of those wars in a while, and if Collard can make him uncomfortable in round one, this fight could get very interesting, very fast.

OAM’s style actually may help Collard’s cardio as Mercier likes to push up against the fence and work for takedowns and that could give Collard some much needed breaks in action to catch his wind.

The wrestling and cardio advantage goes to OAM, but the boxing advantage goes to Collard and I’ll take a sprinkle on the underdog in this one to make OAM uncomfortable on the feet and score the win.

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