PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds February 24

PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs Betting Preview

MMA WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs predictions and picks for February 24th! The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs Main Event Info

Saturday, February 24	PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Main Event Moneyline:	Ryan Bader -125 v Renan Ferreira +105
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV:	ESPN+

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PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs Predictions

Abdullah Al-Qahtani -1450 v Edukondala Rao +850 

There’s not much value in betting this fight outside of parlaying it, but Qahtani should  run through Rao. Rao has this strange Tae Kwon Do style, but he’s fought nobody of note, and he’s only fought in leagues I’ve never heard of and he lost his last fight to a  guy making his professional debut. Qahtani has the much better striking and should  

piece him up easily on the feet. He couldn’t finish David Zelner in his last fight, but Zelner is a much better fighter than Rao, and Zelner was pretty beat up at the end. Qahtani will win, probably by knockout.

Claressa Shields -455 v Kelsey DeSantis +350

PFL really wants Shields to win this as they signed her years ago, and it was apparent her boxing skills didn’t translate to MMA skills as she went 1-1 against terrible competition.

She went back to boxing for a few matches and is now fighting Kelsey DeSantis who fought in 2013, took 10 years off and came back and won on a hail mary punch when she was losing badly. The way to beat Shields is to wrestle, and DeSantis hasn’t shown any signs of that.

On top of that, Shields is really big. So big, that they moved this fight to a catchweight at 165 pounds, and DeSantis last weighed in at 145.

This fight was made for Shields to get a win, I think her striking overwhelms DeSantis early, and I love that under 2.5 rounds is +170. DeSantis’s strikes won’t scare Shields in the slightest, she will close the distance and her strikes will be too much.

AJ McKee -305 v Clay Collard +245

It’s the wrestling from McKee that makes him a -305 favorite, and although I agree that McKee should be a favorite, this line is really big.

We just watched OAM clinch, and wrestle his way to a win over Collard, and I didn’t think OAM looked great in that fight.

It was boring to watch, but it was obvious that Collard didn’t have the skill or the knowledge how to avoid the wrestling, and I have to believe that McKee is going to be as good if not better in this fight.

If Collard can make it a boxing-only match, he has a chance, and with this being only three rounds I wonder if McKee is going to even attempt to trade strikes with Collard for very long.

I don’t think I will bet a side on this fight, but betting this fight to go the distance might be a solid wager. McKee controls guys well, but four fights in a row for him have gone the distance and I could see this one going all three rounds.

Biaggio Ali Walsh -1000 v Emmanuel Palacio

Walsh is the grandson of Muhammad Ali and PFL has big plans for him. They have given him some really bad amateur fighters as opponents, and he’s run through all of them.

Walsh has legit power and he’s a real fighter who is coming up slowly, and this is his first professional fight even though he has seven amateur fights.

Palacio has had one fight, and even though he won it, he’s not in Walsh’s league. Walsh was supposed to fight someone else, but he pulled out so they grabbed this guy as a sacrificial lamb.

Walsh will demolish this guy on the feet and probably get the early finish as he’s knocked out his last 6 opponents, all whom have more experience in the ring than Palacio.

AJ McKee -305 v Clay Collard +245

It’s the wrestling from McKee that makes him a -305 favorite, and although I agree that McKee should be a favorite, this line is really big.

We just watched OAM clinch, and wrestle his way to a win over Collard, and I didn’t think OAM looked great in that fight.

It was boring to watch, but it was obvious that Collard didn’t have the skill or the knowledge how to avoid the wrestling, and I have to believe that McKee is going to be as good if not better in this fight.

If Collard can make it a boxing-only match, he has a chance, and with this being only three rounds I wonder if McKee is going to even attempt to trade strikes with Collard for very long.

I don’t think I will bet a side on this fight, but betting this fight to go the distance might be a solid wager. McKee controls guys well, but four fights in a row for him have gone the distance and I could see this one going all three rounds.

Thiago Santos -122 v Yoel Romero +102

All you have to know about this fight is that the over 2.5 is -220. This could be a very low-volume striking fight as these guys are past their prime, and slow.

Romero just got beat up bad by Nemkov, but he somehow survived and went the distance so we know he can still take a punch.

This will be Santos’s first fight since testing positive for an illegal substance so who knows what shape he’s in.

If Nemkov couldn’t finish Romero, I don’t think Santos can, and the only way Romero finishes Santos is on the ground I believe, but Romero is 46 years old now, and although It won’t be the most exciting bet to make, but taking this fight to go the distance is the only thing I could bet on as I think it goes to the judges, and it could go either way.

Vadim Nemkov -500 v Bruno Cappelozza +380

This is one of my favorite theories in betting MMA and that’s fading a fighter in their first fight after a failed drug test against a solid opponent and that’s what we have here.

Cappelozza lost to Matheus Scheffel in June of 2022, and then had the rematch last April where he knocked out Scheffel early in round one, but uh oh…he tested positive and the fight got overturned to a no contest.

Now he has to try and fight the animal that is Nemkov without the help of the banned substance. Nemkov is so technical on the feet with punches and kicks and he’s undefeated in Bellator.

Cappelozza was never the fastest guy in the world, but his power was great, but I don’t see him being able to overpower Nemkov at heavyweight, and he’s not going to be faster.

Nemkov is patient and he won’t overextend himself to get the finish as he’s great at just dishing out strike after strike to piece up his opponents, and I think that’s what he does here.

Cappelozza will be swinging for the big knockout, but I don’t think he’ll get it. It’s only three rounds so I like Nemkov by decision, but to be safe I would just use Nemkov as a parlay piece.

Jason Jackson -410 v Ray Cooper

Cooper’s best days are behind him it looks like. He got beat by the corpse of Derek Brunson in November, and he looked out of shape and was exhausted by the end of the first round.

He likes to lunge in with strikes, and they have some power on them, but not what he used to have. Brunson has one of the worst chins in MMA, and Cooper couldn’t knock him out. Brunson took him down and wore him down for the decision win.

He hadn’t fought in almost a year and a half before that when he knocked out Brett Cooper who is not a PFL-caliber fighter, and before that, he lost to Carlos Leal so he hasn’t had a quality win since 2021.

When Brunson took Cooper down, Cooper couldn’t get up and had no cardio. That’s a massive problem against Jason Jackson who is a relentless wrestler who doesn’t stop with the takedowns and clinch.

Once he gets his hands around Cooper, and gets Cooper down the round is over as Cooper won’t be able to get up.

Cooper’s only path to victory is to get a quick knockout, but Jackson doesn’t get knocked out and he’s won his last 7 Bellator fights including taking out the undefeated Amasov in November.

Jackson will show patience and wait for his chance to wrestle Cooper, and once he does he’ll control the match for the rest of the duration.

Johnny Eblen -425 v Impa Kasanganay +330

I get the feeling that Eblen is going to be the parlay piece everyone puts in, and while I love Eblen, I think Impa has the ability to make this fight much closer than people think.

Eblen is undefeated and has looked really good as he can strike with punches and kicks, he can clinch and get control time, but I do wonder if Impa is going to be his toughest opponent so far.

I’m not that high on Fabian Edwards who he last beat, and Eblen was cut before he knocked Edwards out, he beat Tokov who I’m not sure is Championship caliber, and Impa’s run through PFL has been impressive.

Impa is going to have to make a difficult weight cut here, but on fight night he’s going to be bigger so I don’t think Eblen will be able to clinch and control him like other opponents.

Impa’s opponents haven’t been amazing in PFL, but he’s really dominated his last three opponents and with only three rounds in this fight I don’t think he’ll get too tired.

In the last three fights, he’s shown he has knockout power, he’s shown he can go five rounds and win a fight on the feet, and he’s shown takedown and ground game.

I lean Eblen to win, but when I look at the rest of the matchups with big favorites, I think Impa might be the best opponent at a +300 price.

I think Eblen is seen as the best pound-for-pound fighter on this card, but I won’t bet on him. I like the fight to go the distance as I think both guys are going to be really tough to finish.

Aaron Pico -500 v Henry Corrales +375

Corrales steps in on short notice and Pico gets his shot at revenge after Corrales knocked him out in 2019.

Pico has improved so much since that Corrales fight, and I expected him to beat Braga, and I expect him to beat Corrales even on the quick fighter change.

Pico’s wrestling and takedowns are elite right now, and he’s so good at keeping the distance until he needs to shoot, he does such a good job of keeping his opponents off balance and guessing where he’s going to attack from next.

He has knockout power and submission on the ground ability, and Corrales is coming off a split decision loss to Kai Kamaka…not great.

The win against Pico five years ago is the last time he finished anyone, and Pico isn’t the same fighter he was in 2019. Pico’s overall game will be way too much for Corrales, look for Pico to use his striking to set up the takedown and avenge his loss to Corrales here.

Gabriel Braga -170 v Patricio Pitbull +145

This is such a bizarre fight. These two found out they were fighting each other just this week, and both guys have tons of questions surrounding them.

Pitbull has lost two in a row as he lost to Sergio Pettis and he looked terrible in that fight, then he went to RIZIN and got knocked out in round one, and it turned out he had a neck injury so were his terrible performances because he was hurt or because he’s 36 years old and has 42 professional fights?

Braga is dealing with tragedy in his life as his Father was killed a few weeks ago so I have no idea what his mindset is going to be.

Braga is coming off a KO loss in the PFL finale, and two of his last three wins were by split decision and his other win was a KO of Marlon Moraes who has been knocked out by everyone so I don’t know how good he his right now.

Braga wants this fight to stay on the feet so he work his kicks and jab, and if Pitbull fights like he did the last two fights, Braga will piece him up for all three rounds and waltz his way to a win, and I lean towards that being more likely than not so the pick is Braga as Pitbull may have just hit the wall after all these years. Word of caution though, this isn’t a big bet as both guys have a lot of questions surrounding them.

PFL Champs vs Bellator Champs Main Event: Ryan Bader -125 v Renan Ferreira +105

This fight is pretty simple. If Bader can take Ferreira down, and keep this fight on the ground, he will dominate and probably finish Ferreira.

If Ferreira keeps this on the feet, he will knockout Bader. I’m willing to roll with Ferreira in this fight, but earlier in the week a play on Ferreira was +130 so money has come in on Ferreira and it’s taking away some of the value, but I still lean towards him winning.

Bader is 40 years old and his last two wins are against old guys in Fedor Emilianenko and Cheick Kongo and Ferreira is a 6’8” power puncher who is so much more powerful than guys that Bader has been fighting.

Ferreira has bad takedown defense so Bader will have to close the distance as soon as the fight starts and not let Ferreira get any huge strikes landed as it will be lights out for Bader.

Ferreira only needs one big shot to land to KO Bader or at least wobble him so Ferreira can rush in and finish, and I thing the age and size difference will be too much for Bader over three rounds.

If you’re like me and you like Ferreira to win, take him to win by finish to add more value as I don’t see a path to him winning by decision. If he wins it will be by violence.

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