UFC 288 Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 6

UFC 288 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 288 predictions and picks for May 6 with Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo headlining the event. The main card starts up at 10pm ET from the Prudential Center, Newark, NJ.

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Aljamain Sterling vs Henry Cejudo Odds: UFC 288 Main Event

Saturday, May 6	UFC 288 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Aljamain Sterling -105 vs Henry Cejudo -115
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -140 / Under +120)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
TV:	PPV

UFC 288 Betting Analysis

It was a nice betting week for us as we went 2-1 for +4 units as we hit our best bet, and that brings our record to 24-13 in 2024 for +24 units, and we hit on our first Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship official play on Rothwell+Perry parlay.

Some of these former UFC guys are finding a home in BKFC and are winning in dominant fashion so we’ll be adding more of these plays to our portfolio.

Our plays for this week can be found here: http://wt.buzz/al

Finish Of The Week: Claudio Ribeiro Will Finish Joseph Holmes

Ribeiro had an incredible performance at Contender Series with a KO in less than 30 seconds, and then got the pleasure of fighting Abdul Razak Alhassan in his first UFC fight.

He landed his brutal calf kicks early, and Alhassan wanted nothing to do with them so the veteran pushed Ribeiro up against the fence, worked the clinch game and finished him in round 2 with his elite power.

Ribeiro won’t be facing anyone even remotely as scary as Alhassan this fight. Joseph Holmes made his debut against Jamie Pickett, and was exhausted after just a few minutes en route to a loss.

He then got a finish against Alen Amadovski who is one of the worst UFC fighters of all time, and then got finished by Jun Yung Park in the second round. Holmes has a weak stance on the feet with little power and his cardio is in the bottom 25% in the UFC.

His ground game and clinch are very weak, and Ribeiro will be licking his chops to show off his power. Ribeiro has leg kicks that have to be some of the strongest in the sport right now, and the way Holmes stands will let Ribeiro tee off on those skinny legs.

Ribeiro loves winding up and hitting his opponents hard, and he leaves himself open to counter shots and being pushed against the fence, but Holmes does not possess any of those skills in my opinion.

Once Ribeiro realizes he doesn’t need to fear Holmes striking or takedowns, he will unload those kicks and strikes and I see a brutal KO that will end this fight.

UFC 288 Expert Predictions

Aljamain Sterling -120 v Henry Cejudo +100

This should be a war, and I think people are either all in on Cejudo or all in on Sterling. I don’t have a strong opinion on the outcome, but I think these two will feel each other out at first and turn it on as the fight goes on.

I would take a prop on this fight to go over 2.5 rounds or something like that maybe as a parlay piece. Henry will clearly be wanting to turn this into a wrestling match and Sterling will not want to end up on the bottom in a scrap, but Sterling has shown he can pull out submissions so I wouldn’t say it’s a clear cut, sure fire advantage for Henry on the ground.

I believe ring rust is a real thing so without seeing Cejudo in action for a few years, I don’t feel comfortable putting money on this fight as there are better wagers to be made on this card.

Belal Muhammad +105 v Gilbert Burns -125

I’ll take this fight to go the distance. Muhammad has arguably the best fight IQ in the sport and just knows how to exploit the weakness of his opponent to get the win.

Burns doesn’t have hardly any weaknesses so it’s going to be tough for Belal to find something to exploit, and I think Burns has the advantage if he can get the takedown.

I lean Burns to get the win by squeaking out two rounds due to takedowns, but it’s so close I see a decision for whoever wins.

Jessica Andrade -200 v Yan Xiaonan +160

I lean Andrade in this one as her losses have been to the best in womens fighting, and Yan doesn’t seem to have the upside losing two out of three and beating Mackenzie Dern by just staying out of submissions for three rounds.

Andrade should just be more aggressive overall and win on the scorecards with forward pressure and striking. If you like Andrade, wait and take her to win by decision.

Bryce Mitchell +200 v Mover Evloev -250

I love parlays with fights “To Start Round 2” as pieces, and this is a great one. Mitchell is all about getting it on the ground, and Evloev likes to wrestle, but also likes to point fight on the feet, which he’s very effective at.

Topuria laid the groundwork for how to beat Mitchell…go all out to stuff the take down and Mitchell gets easily frustrated and leaves himself wide open on the feet.

I don’t think Evloev finishes Mitchell, but his game is good enough to stuff Mitchell’s takedowns and win on the feet, but again…I love the prop To Start Round 2 in this fight.

Charles Jourdain -190 v Korn Gracie +155

If you can predict this fight, you’re way smarter than I am. Gracie hasn’t fought in years, and Jourdain has lost two in a row. No opinion on this fight for me.

Drew Dober -225 v Matt Frevola +185

Don’t blink, and just take this fight to not go the distance. Both fighters will eat shots to land their own, someone is going to sleep, and I would think it would be Frevola who gets KO’d, but Dober takes so many shots it wouldn’t be a surprise if Frevola landed the big one. Tell the judges they can take a
break on this fight, they won’t be needed.

Devin Clark +155 v Kennedy Nzechukwu -190

The value is in the dog here as I think this fight is a pick em. Kennedy has the reach advantage, but he doesn’t always know how to use it, and I think Devin Clark is good enough to get inside of Kennedy and land damage inside. Clark might try and get Kennedy on the ground where Kennedy has been working hard to get better, but I don’t know who has the advantage in that situation. This is a dog or pass fight for me.

Khaos Wiliams -300 v Ronaldo Bedoya +250

ast week I sniffed out Padilla over Erosa as everyone was on the UFC vet against the no-name debutant and Padilla got the finish, and the situation is similar in this fight…but the result will be different.

I actually kinda like Bedoya as he’s tough as hell, has great cardio and power, but he’s raw, reckless and has not fought the best competition.

Khaos will be unlike anything he’s ever seen as Williams won’t give Bedoya openings and that’s how Bedoya has won, beating low level fighters who have gigantic holes in their game either on the feet or on the ground.

Bedoya gets clipped quite often, don’t be surprised if Khaos catches him on the chin and finishes him in a great learning experience for Bedoya who just needs a legit camp and coaching team and then he’ll be UFC caliber.

Marina Rodriguez -125 v Virna Jandiroba +100

Take this to go the distance. Jandiroba will try and get the fight on the ground to win some rounds, and Rodriguez will have the advantage on the feet, but I don’t have a strong opinion on which one will win 2-3 rounds.

I don’t see how either fighter finishes the other so I’ll side with the fight to go to the judges as both fighters are tough and smart, but not strong enough to KO or submit each other.

Braxton Smith +155 v Parker Porter -190

I’m certainly not betting on Parker Porter, but I’m also not betting on a heavyweight debutant who throws very few punches and then throws them as hard as he possibly can with no set up or defense. It’s a low level fight, I won’t be betting it.

Ikram Aliskerov -210 v Phillip Hawes +175

I looked into the Phil Hawes knee injury that he suffered in the fight against Roman Dolidze and really couldn’t find much. The only thing I could find was a doctor saying it was an MCL sprain or tear.

Those heal within a few months so he is probably fine. Something stinks about Ikram Aliskerov. He is 13-1, but when you look at who he’s fought it’s some pretty bad fighters.

His striking isn’t very good, and his striking defense is terrible so he can absolutely be hit. If he gets you on the ground, he’s fantastic, but Hawes is stronger than him and isn’t going to go down as easy as his other opponents.

I think most will think this is the coming out party for Ikram, but I won’t be surprised if Hawes causes him real problems on the feet.

Hawes has cardio issues, and bad decision making issues, but if he can keep it on the feet he will win a striking match, but if Ikram gets him on the ground it’s Ikram all day. It’s a stay away for me, and I wouldn’t put Ikram in parlays.

Rafael Estevam -175 v Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Zhalgas is 1-5 in the UFC, said he was retiring after his last fight, and I have a feeling this is a final paycheck for Zhalgas as he moves on from the UFC. Estevam is undefeated and is fantastic at takedowns and ground game, and this sets up nicely for him to make a splashy debut to continue his unbeaten streak.

Zhalgas will have to make this a fight on the feet, but he gets tired as the fight goes on so I don’t see him staying off his back all fight long. I like Estevam in this one.

Daniel Santos -165 v Johnny Munoz +140

Santos is the more aggressive fighter, that could be good or bad for him in this matchup. Santos wants to push the action in his fights, but he leaves himself open to take wide open shots to the head. If Munoz can land the counters, he can sting Santos, but he just fights to lackadaisical for my liking.

He might try to get takedowns and clinch work, but the aggressiveness of Santos should pay dividends as Munoz doesn’t swing hard, and doesn’t have a ground game that scares anyone. Either way, I won’t be betting any money on this fight.


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