UFC 293: Adesanya vs Strickland Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 9

UFC 293 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 293 predictions and picks for September 9 with Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland headlining the event in a middleweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

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Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland: UFC 293 Main Event

Saturday, September 9	UFC 293 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Israel Adesanya -640 vs Sean Strickland +470
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -105 / Under -115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia
TV:	PPV

UFC 293 Predictions

Kevin Jousset -142 v Kiefer Crosbie +120

This will be a pass for me for betting purposes as neither guy really sticks out. Jousset is pretty low volume, and he only has one finish in his last five fights and that was with seven seconds left in his last fight.

He has decent striking skills and decent clinch work, but I can’t point to anything he does great. He’s fairly well-rounded, but he has a low ceiling.

Crosbie fought in Bellator for a while, leaving with a 4-3 record, and he recently finished two fighters in smaller promotions including UFC vet Alex Oliveira.

I do like that he searches for the finish, and he will have the power advantage, but if he doesn’t KO Jousset early, this could turn into a very boring fight where Jousset clinches and grinds out a victory.

There’s no value in betting on this fight in my opinion as there are many other great opportunities on this card.

Shane Young -170 v Gabriel Miranda +140

The UFC has not been kind to these guys as Miranda got knocked out by Benoit Staint Denis in his UFC debut, and Young is on a three-fight losing streak.

Young doesn’t fight a lot and is coming off a loss early in 2023 to Blake Bilder. I don’t mean to sound rude, but I’m sure exactly what Young does in his fights. He doesn’t throw a lot of strikes, the ones he does throw aren’t effective, and he’s not good at takedowns and ground games.

I just don’t see any upside. Miranda had a rough outing against Saint-Denis as he got beat up and finished, but against Saint-Denis that was to be expected.

Miranda has a good record, but he hasn’t fought good competition before his UFC debut. There’s no way I’m betting anything on this fight, but if you are betting the fight it’s a dog or pass situation.

Charlie Radtke -245 v Mike Diamond +200

Diamond is really bad and is on this card because he’s great friends with Israel Adesanya. He throws a lot of kicks, but they aren’t effective, and he’s bad in the wrestling and grappling departments.

He actually had some success on the feet in his last fight against Orion Cosce, but he still lost because of the wrestling. Radtke is making his UFC debut, and I like what I see from him.

He has power in his hands, and he recently fought a guy who only goes for takedowns and submissions and he beat him by thwarting the attacks and beating him up with strikes. I just can’t bet on Diamond, he’s just bad.

Radtke is a good parlay piece as long as he doesn’t get knocked out or hurt by one of Diamond’s kicks, but I don’t see Diamond winning any UFC fight at this point. Radtke as a parlay piece is a fine bet.

Nasrat Haqparast -440 v Landon Quinones +340

Quinones is coming off a stint on The Ultimate Fighter, but it was a quick stint because he got submitted in 55 seconds in his first fight and was eliminated. He doesn’t have a lot of experience, and he definitely doesn’t have experience against a UFC veteran like Haqparast.

I don’t see a lot of upside for Quinones here, and I think Nasrat takes him apart fairly easily. Nasrat has lost two out of three, but the losses were to UFC studs Bobby Green and Dan Hooker.

Nasrat will piece him up on the feet, and dominate I believe as Quinones just doesn’t have the technique and experience to compete over three rounds. The price is big on Nasrat, but it’s certainly a parlay piece I would recommend playing.

Jamie Mullarkey -185 v John Makdessi +154

Mullarkey is coming off a bizarre loss to Muhammad Naimov where Naimov took the fight on really short notice. Mullarkey was winning easily and Naimov landed a clean shot that knocked Mullarkey down and the ref jumped in a stopped it, way too early in my opinion.

Mullarkey just doesn’t seem to have the killer instinct anymore as he seems tentative and he seems fine with point fighting. He got burned by that last time, and it makes him now just 4-4 in the UFC.

Makdessi is now 38 years old, and he only fights once a year, in his last fight against Haqparast he looked like a fighter not fighting to win, but to just survive. He got pieced up on the feet, and he got taken down at the end of the fight to confirm the win for Haqparast.

He has no finishes since 2015 and without the threat of a finish, I expect Mullarkey to win by decision. Taking overs in this fight would be smart as neither guy has shown finishing ability recently.

Jack Jenkins -205 v Chepe Mariscal +170

I like the underdog in this one. Jenkins is 2-0 in the UFC, but his first fight was against Don Shainis, a fighter who is not good, and he won a split decision against Jamll Emmers where even Jenkins was surprised he won.

He’s a technical fighter with great leg kicks, but Mariscal is a warrior who loves getting into brawls. He won his UFC debut against Trevor Peek in an insane war, and I think he will turn this into another war where he’ll be tougher and he’ll have more power.

I’m not sure Jenkins can truly hurt Mariscall, and I see Mariscal walking through most of the strikes of Jenkins.

Maybe the technical skill and speed of Jenkins will overcome the power and toughness of Mariscal, but I think this number is even if the judges rightfully give Emmers the win in Jenkins’s last fight so we’re getting immense value on Mariscal at +170.

Carlos Ulberg -278 v Da Woon Jung +225

I’ve been on Ulberg his last four fights, and we’ve gone 4-0 and I’m expecting to make it 5-0. Ulberg’s striking is lethal as his last three fights he’s won by KO in the first round.

In his UFC debut, he gassed himself and Kennedy Nzechukwu wore him down and got the finish, but he won a decision fight in his next fight as he managed his cardio well, and I believe he’s putting all the pieces together to become a real threat in the light heavyweight division.

Jung is coming off of two losses as he got knocked out by Dustin Jacoby and then lost by decision to Devin Clark, and I don’t think Jung has the speed or striking to keep up with Ulberg.

Ulberg’s striking has gotten so good, and he has so much power that it only takes one shot to KO an opponent or to throw his balance off, and I see him taking care of Jung early. He’s a great parlay piece or you can wait til props come out and take Ulberg by KO.

Tyson Pedro -130 v Anton Turkalj +110

Tyson Pedro’s resume isn’t looking great in the UFC as he’s 3-4 in his last seven fights, and his wins are against Hunsucker, Villanueva and Safarov…three bad fighters.

He just got beat by Modestas Bukauskas, as I predicted, as Bukauskas used his speed and cardio advantage to get the decision win.

Pedro’s big issue is that he just gets tired if he doesn’t finish in the first round. All his UFC wins have come in the first round, and Turkalj showed decent cardio in his last fight. Anton is 0-2 in the UFC, but he’s fought two good fighters, and if he can weather the storm in the first round I think he’ll be a live dog with his clinch and grappling game.

I will lean Pedro to win with his striking because Turkalj’s striking defense is pretty bad, but don’t be surprised if Anton loses the first round, wins the third round and the fight comes down to who won a close second round.

I’ll pass on betting this fight, but a live bet on Anton might be a nice wager if you’re watching and you see him pulling away late.

Justin Tafa -238 v Austen Lane +195

I like Lane as a live dog here. This fight started on June 24th but was cut short due to an unintentional eye poke, and after the fight Lane and Tafa’s corner were getting into it so I expect bad blood in this one.

Justin Tafa is 3-3 in the UFC with his wins being against fighters that I think Lane would beat easily. Lane has a huge height and reach advantage, and really all Lane needs to do is to avoid the huge KO power that Tafa has.

If he works the jab and closes the distance quickly into the clinch, I think he will wear Tafa down and take the victory by decision. This is fantastic value on the bigger and longer fighter who I believe will win.

Malel Kape -395 v Felipe dos Santos +310

Felipe Dos Santos might be in a bit over his head in this matchup, and I think the huge price on Kape is worth it.

Dos Santos is undefeated, but he hasn’t been tested anywhere near to what Kape will show him. Dos Santos has fought in a few different promotions with his last fight being the LFA against a shorter fighter where he survived the first round and then watched his opponent gas as he landed takedowns and strikes en route to a decision win.

Kape has really good striking and movement on the feet, and he’s won three straight UFC fights. His overall game and cardio advantage will get him this win, and also it’s worth noting that this is a bit of a reward for dos Santos.

He was supposed to fight on Contender Series earlier this season, but his opponent pulled out so he didn’t have a fight, and he made weight, and Kape’s opponent pulled out so this was a great spot for him to fill in.

It’s a great opportunity for dos Santos to get a UFC fight, but he’s too young and raw to pull the upset, and there’s no chance this fight gets made without the opponents of Kape and dos Santos pulling out. Kape should roll here.

Alexander Volkov -225 v Tai Tuivasa +170

I love what I’ve seen from Volkov recently, and I love him in this matchup. He’s 5-2 in his last seven fights and his two losses have been to Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane, so there’s no shame in that.

He’s finished Rozenstruik and Romanov in his last two fights, both in the first round, and I think he finishes Tuivasa here. Tuivasa is entertaining and a fan favorite, but he has limits to his game.

He doesn’t have a wrestling or ground game, and Volkov will certainly test that. He also has one-shot power but doesn’t do much with kicks, and he’s beaten less-than-stellar opponents.

He won five in a row against Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy, Auguston Sakai, and Derrick Lewis, and all those guys are either out of the UFC or have bad losing records in their last few fights.

He stepped up in competition against Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich and got knocked out in both of those fights.

Volkov will be the taller and longer fighter, and his combination of kicks, jabs, and takedown offense should overwhelm Tuivasa en route to a decisive victory.

UFC 293 Event: Israel Adesanya -640 vs Sean Strickland +470

Sean Strickland has made it clear that he fights for financial reasons, and he will be handsomely paid for this fight that he will most likely lose.

Congratulations to him. He’s a fantastic boxer, but he’s 2-2 in his last four fights in the UFC. He lost a very close split decision to Jared Cannonier on a fight he took on short notice, and he got flatlined before that in round one by Alex Pereira.

He beat Nassourdine Imavov and Abus Magomedov after that, but those guys aren’t in Adesanya’s league.

Adesanya’s length and striking from the outside are accurate and lethal, and Strickland even says himself that he doesn’t hit that hard so it’s tough to see him knocking out Izzy.

Adesanaya has his sights set on a huge matchup against Driscus Du Plesis, which was the fight the UFC wanted to make, but Driscus wasn’t healthy enough.

Izzy’s leg kicks and jabs will take their toll on Strickland, and the movement on the feet will make it too difficult for Strickland to consistently land his punches. I don’t think Izzy gets the finish so I’ll predict a decision win for him.

Prediction: Israel Adesanya by Decision

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