UFC 294: Makhachev vs Volkanovski Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 21

UFC 294 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 294 predictions and picks for October 21 with Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski headlining the event in a lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 2:00pm ET from Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

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Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski: UFC 294 Main Event

Saturday, October 21	UFC 294 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Islam Makhachev -260 vs Alexander Volkanovski +210
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -195 / Under +165)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 2:00pm ET / 11:00am PT
Arena:	Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
TV:	PPV

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UFC 294 Predictions

Bruno Silva +164 v Sharabutdin Magomedov -198

Shara Magomedov might set a UFC record for kicks landed in a fight if he has a long UFC career. He is constantly throwing leg and body kicks, and they’re effective, and he looks like he has cardio to continue the kicks and knees for all three rounds.

He doesn’t look to wrestle hardly at all, and he’ll have a willing dance partner on the feet in Bruno Silva. Silva has lost three out of four, but two of them were to submissions, and the other was to Alex Pereira, and Shara doesn’t look like he’s going to try and look for submissions.

Silva’s four wins in the UFC have come by knockout so he’s at his best in a strikefest. The value is in the UFC veteran here as defending and surviving the kicks will be what he needs to do on defense, and I don’t see opponents of Magomedov with the striking of Silva. I wouldn’t bet on the UFC debutant here, Silva is a live dog.

Jin Yu Frey +300 v Victoria Dudakova -380

I loved Victoria Dudakova to win on Contender Series, and she cashed for us there, I loved her to win her UFC debut, and she cashed again when her opponent was injurred, and I want to cash again on her. She’s a fighter who’s specialty is takedowns and ground game, but her striking is solid to help set everything up, and I think she’s only gotten better since we’ve seen her.

Shen she gets opponents down on the mat, it’s been nearly impossible for them to get back up, and I think she wins again against Jin Yu Frey. Frey is 2-5 in the UFC, and has lost 3 straight, and I guess is a striker, but when you’re losing stand up striking matches to Elise Reed, and getting knocked out by Polyana Viana, I don’t think you’re a great striker.

Frey is 38 years old and just looks slow at this point in her career. I like Dudakova to win this by controlling Frey, working takedowns and grinding out a confident win.

Nathaniel Wood -310 v Muhammadjon Naimov +250

Muhammad Naimov had one of the more crazy UFC debuts when he fought Jamie Mullarkey on short notice.

Mullarkey was winning the fight, and Naimov caught him with a strike that put Mullarkey down and ref jumped in a stopped the fight, quite prematurely I believe.

Naimov has good power, and I’m looking forward to what he can do with a full camp, but think Wood puts on a clinic on the feet in this one.

Wood’s leg kicks will chew up Naimov’s calves early on which lets Wood’s striking open up. Naimov put Mullarkey down with one punch, but Nathaniel Wood is tough as nails, and can take a strike way better than Mullarkey, and I expect Wood to put on a masterclass in leg kicks and striking en route to victory.

Mike Breeden +330 v Anshul Jubli -425

It has not gone well for Mike Breeden in the UFC as he is 0-3, and is coming off a first round KO loss to Terrance McKinney.

He’ll be fighting Anshul Jubli who is undefeated and making his UFC debut, and he’s coming off winning Road To The UFC where he showed he can win by striking, or by takedowns and control.

He’s a well rounded fighter, but his striking defense is a concern as is his cardio. Breeden looked completely overwhelmed against McKinney, and if he fights scared again, he’ll lose this fight.

He lost against Natan Levy by losing the takedown and clinch battle, and he also lost the striking battle in that fight. Breeden just isn’t UFC caliber, but I think this fight is closer than the odds would tell you.

Jubli has gotten tired in later rounds, and I actually think Breeden is one the best opponents he’s fought. Jubli takes this fight I think, but -425 is too steep of a price for me.

Sedriques Dumas -170 v Abu Azaitar +142

I don’t understand the line on this fight. Sedriques Dumas lost to Josh Fremd (not a good look), and beat Cody Brundage in one of the stragest fights you’ll see. It looked like Brundage had stage fright or was paralyzed, and didn’t even try to fight.

Dumas couldn’t even finish Brundage, which was a terrible look for him as it looked like he was fighting a mannequin. Dumas is raw, and isn’t composed on the feet as he throws wild, and leaves himself open.

Abu Azaitar is a grinder and he’ll land punches, push against the fence, dirty box and just make it a grueling match.

Azaitar is coming off a loss to Marc-Andre Barriault after beating Vitor Miranda, but this is a massive step down in competition for Azaitar. He’s quite a bit older than Dumas, but I think his technique and composure will get him the win here.

Javid Basharat -440 v Victor Henry +340

Sometimes you get a good read on a fighter, and cash on him fight after fight, and you don’t want to bet against him, and that’s Javid Basharat for me.

I’ve cashed on him four times in a row, and I think it will be five in a row. Basharat is a cerebral fighter who reads his opponents for the first part of the first round, he learns their weaknesses and then pounces.

He’s done the same thing against Mendonca, Gravely and Jones in the UFC where he gets better as the fight goes on, mostly using really accurate strikes to set up a takedown where he controls and wins the round.

He fights Victor Henry who is 2-1 in the UFC and is coming off a win to Tony Gravely, who is a guy that lost to Basharat.

Both guys have similar styles with good striking and good takedown and ground games, but I think Basharat is just a bit better everywhere. Henry’s jab can be a problem for Basharat, and Henry will be able defend takedowns, but I don’t know if he has what it takes to win two rounds from Basharat.

He was getting rocked in the third round against Gravely as his cario went away, and Basharat won’t be getting tired. If you want to bet on Basharat, just bet him to win by decision at a much better price. All three of Basharat’s UFC fights have easily gone the distance.

Mohammad Yahya -105 v Trevor Peek -115

Trevor Peek’s fights are never short on excitement as he swings as hard as he can to KO his opponent as quickly as possible. He hasn’t shown any patience, or the ability to set up strikes, he just throw really hard, and he’s tough as hell.

However, he didn’t get the KO finish against Chepe Mariscal, and he tired out and dropped a decision loss as Mariscal survived the early barrage and grinded out a decisive win.

That’s what this fight comes down to really, is can Yahya survive the early strikes and grind out the win. I don’t think he’s got the strength to absorb the shots that Peek will land on him.

This is his UFC debut, and he has cardio issues fighting in UAE, and in his last fight both fighters were exhaused in the 4th and 5th round, but Yahya barely survived to get the round.

Peek is just going to be a whole different animal, and one of Peeks weaknesses is his cardio after his early onslaught, but I don’t think Yahya will be able to exploit it. It should be exciting, but I think Peek will be to much for Yahya, don’t be surprised if Peek gets the KO.

Muhammad Mokaev -485 v Tim Elliott +370

I think Tim Elliott is a live dog here as I have not been that impressed with Mokaev in some recent fights. Mokaev almost lost his last fight to Jafel Filho in Filho’s UFC debut, and Mokaev tore his MCL due to damage that Filho did to him.

Tim Elliott has had a lot of personal injures over the years, and he looks to have that behind him, and his new gym seems to working out well. He’s won his last two fights, and he showed really good cardio and durability in his last fight.

That’s what Tim Elliott has that Mokaev doesn’t seem to have, is that deep intensity, and dog inside.

Mokaev’s last three wins were way more difficult than they should’ve been, and if he isn’t on point, Elliott will just outwork him and end up winning a couple rounds. No chance I would bet Mokaev against Elliott at this price as Elliott is absolutely live to get the win.

Said Nurmagomedov -205 v Muin Gafurov

I love Said Nurmagomedov in this fight, and I think this line is too short. Nurmagomedov is coming off a razor thin decision loss to Jonathan Martinez in a fight he dominated the first round, and Martinez fought like an animal to squeak out rounds two and three while Muin Garurov lost on Contender Series, and lost to John Castenada in his first UFC fight.

Nurmagomedov has incredibly unique striking that will piece up Gafurov for as long as the fight lasts, which may not go the distance. It took a herculean effort from Jonathan Martinez to win against Said, and Gafurov is nowhere near the caliber of Martinez. Nurmagomedov should roll here.

Ikram Aliskerov -395 v Warlley Alves +310

This is tough fight to handicap, and I can’t say I’m confident in any play in this fight. Warlley Alves came back from injury and put on an incredible performance against Mounir Lazez in 2021, but he’s dropped his last two fights and hasn’t looked great.

He’s 2-4 in his last six fights, and he just doesn’t look like he has a lot of upside right now. His striking was lackluster in his last two fights, and he lost the clinch game against Dalby which cost him the fight.

Aliskerov comes in at 14-1 with his one loss being to Khamzat Chimaev in BRAVE CF in 2019, and his last two fights have ended quick as he took out Souza with a Kimura on DWCS, and he knocked out Phil Hawes who looks like a shot fighter at this point.

Aliskerov definitely has the higher ceiling and it looks like he has better power and speed so I’ll side with him to win, but at nearly -400 I won’t be pulling the trigger on a play in this one.

Magomed Ankalaev -340 v Johnny Walker +270

This is a pretty big line, and I certainly won’t lay -340 on Ankalaev. He’s s great fighter, but he can be low volume, and he can absolutely be hit on the feet as Jan Blachowicz bloodied him up, and did a lot of damage to the legs in the first few rounds.

Ankalaev turned to his takedowns to get the draw against Blachowicz, and it feels like Ankalaev tries to see if he can win the striking battle, and if he can’t he turns to the takedown and ground game to get the win.

Johnny Walker has won three in a row, and to win this one he’ll have to use his power on the feet to slow down Ankalaev, and he’ll have to avoid big shots from Magomed, but I think he can absolutely do that.

Ankalaev knocked out Ion Cutelaba twice as he took advantage of sloppy defense, but has gone to decision in four out of five with the other fight a stoppage because Anthony Smith broke his ankle.

I think this is a very close fight on the feet with both guys able to land, and I’ll slightly lean to Ankalaev to win as he can get a takedown and win a round or two, but this fight could be way closer than the line indicates.

I think taking this fight to go the distance is a sneaky play as both guys have had low volume fights, and if both are worried about being knocked out, they’ll keep their distance, and if Ankalaev gets it to the ground he may just keep it there to grind out a round.

Khamzat Chimaev -270 v Kamaru Usman +220

I’ll make this short and sweet…I think Chimaev rolls here. Usman spent so much time and energy at the top, that when he finally lost against Edwards, in the rematch he just looked tired.

We see this in the UFC that when someone is Champion for a long period of time, when they lose, they go downhill quick.

Short notice doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in Usman, and I think Chimaev will take Usman down at will and finish him there. Chimaev ITD for me in this one.

UFC 294 Main Event: Islam Makhachev -260 vs Alexander Volkanovski +210

Again, I’ll make this short and sweet…I have no idea who wins this fight, and I recommend just sitting back and enjoying this fight.

Machachev won the first fight, but a lot might say that Volkanovski came out looking like roses in that fight, as he was up a weight class and ended the fight by punching Makhachev on the mat.

He definitely surprised me by his performance that night, and I’ll never bet against him in a fight. This fight has so many unknkowns so I can’t make a strong prediction to risk with money.

We have no idea how in shape Volk is for this fight at short notice, and we have no idea how Makhachev was training for Oliveira and how those dynamics will change this week. Don’t put your hard earned money on this fight is my best piece of advice.

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