UFC 296: Edwards vs Covington Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds December 16

UFC 296 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 296 predictions and picks for December 16th with Leon Edwards and Colby Covington headlining the event in a welterweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

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Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington: UFC 296 Main Event

Saturday, December 16	UFC 296 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Leon Edwards -160 vs Colby Covington +135
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -170 / Under +145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

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UFC 296 Predictions

Randy Brown -250 v Muslim Salikhov +205

Randy Brown is 19-4 in professional fights, but he’s underwhelming as he’s physically intimidating, but he just seems to fight to his competitions level and he ends up in close fights that he should dominate.

His last fight was against Wellington Turman, and although he won, he should have finished, and it makes it hard to bet on him.

Salikov is 39 years old and has lost two out of three, and he can definitely make this fight interesting as he can push forward, clinch and make it a dirty boxing type of fight, but Brown has better cardio and striking on the outside, and should pull away the longer the fight goes on.

I won’t lay this price, but Brown by decision might be an interesting prop to get a better number.

Martin Buday -180 v Shamil Gaziev +150

Shamil Gaziev is 11-0, and is coming off a first round win on Contender Series, but I think he gets beat here.

The guy he fought on Contender Series was terrible and Gaziev got taken down to start the fight before he reversed and got the submission.

This is a big step up in competition as Gaziev is coming off of low level fights and I think Buday is a bit underrated as he’s undefeated in the UFC, and the guys he’s beaten are the same level as Gaziev.

Buday should have the advantage on the feet, and I believe his cardio is going to be better and he’ll present problems that Gaziev hasn’t seen yet.

This is a solid price as Gaziev is used to running through opponents with quick finishes and I think Buday will be too much.

Gaziev has only been out of the first round one time, and the longer the fight goes on the more Buday will pull away. I’ll be on Buday.

Andre Fili -175 v Lucas Almeida +155

This is a fight between two guys who aren’t great so I probably won’t bet it, but Fili should win this. He’s 2-4 in his last 6 fights, but the losses were against good opponents, and he hasn’t been getting crushed outside of the Brito fight.

His striking is more crisp, and his movement is so much better than Almeida. Almeida got a win in his UFC debut against Michael Tirzano, but he got pieced up in that fight, and then he got finished against Pat Sabatini in his next fight.

Fili has been fighting guys better than him, and losing, but he’s better everywhere and should win here.

Tagir Ulanbekov -175 v Cody Durden +145

This should be a good wrestling and grappling match, and I think the way to play this fight is to take the over.

Both guys are talented on the ground and I don’t see a huge advantage in the submission game. Ulanbekov has submission wins, but not against someone like Durden, and Durden’s last three fights have gone the distance.

Cody Durden has amazing cardio and will be active from start to finish, and he was an underdog in his last fight against Jake Hadley and just outworked Hadley en route to a victory.

I think Ulanbekov might be a bit more polished with his technique, but Durden’s pace and strength will give Ulanbekov problems. It’s a close fight, value is with Durden, but I’ll just take it to go the distance.

Dustin Jacoby -245 v Alonzo Menifield +200

I’m not high on Dustin Jacoby, but I think this fight sets up really good for him, and this line seems right. Jacoby is a striker and kickboxer, and he’s going to be better than Menifield with his technique on the feet.

Jacoby won his last fight by KO, but I thought the fight was stopped way too early, but he showed off his power and counterpunches in that win.

He lost the fights before that by decision to Rountree and Murzakonov, and he can be beat by guys with power and volume and who can win the clinch battles, but I don’t think Menifield is that guy.

He’s fought the same guy 2 times in a row in Jimmy Crute, and Crute is a wrestler and that’s what Menifield was training for, and his striking looked decent against Crute, but Crute is completely different from Jacoby.

Before the Crute fights, Menifield beat two guys who are bad, and he lost to William Knight before that who isn’t in the UFC.

Jacoby has levels to his striking while Menifield throws one jab and doesn’t set it up or follow up most of the time. Jacoby will piece him up, but I don’t think he knocks him out. I’ll take Jacoby to win by decision here.

Casey O’Neil -205 v Ariane Lipski +170

I think Lipski is a live dog in this one, and I would be nervous to put O’Neil in a parlay. O’Neil came off of knee surgery and got pieced up by Jennifer Maia in her return, and while she still had her cardio and forward pressure, her striking defense was awful and she paid the price as she was bloodied up.

I don’t think Lipski is great, but she’ s long and rangy, and she pulled the upset in her last fight against Gatto. Lipski got outstruck, but landed the bigger shots and had more energy at the end, and Gatto was supposed to have the takedown advantage, but couldn’t get Lipski to the ground.

O’Neil should have the takedown and wrestling advantage, but I just watched Lipski squeak by an opponent who had the same advantage.

I didn’t like what I saw from O’Neil against Maia, but I’m not a Lipski fan so I’ll pass on betting this fight.

Cody Garbrandt -205 v Brian Kelleher +170

Garbrandt got in the win column this year with a nice win over Trevin Giles, and I think he gets the win here over a 37 year old Brian Kelleher who is outmatched here.

The chin of Garbrandt is always a concern, but he did well against Trevin Jones, and it’s been 2 years since the Kara-France KO he suffered in 2021.

Before that, he survived against Rob Font, and knocked out Assuncao so I think his chin will be good against Kelleher. Kelleher has been choked out in the first round in his last two fights, and he only has three wins in his last seven fights, and those guys aren’t in the UFC anymore.

Garbrandt is going to be faster on the feet and should land wide open shots similar to the Jones fight, and while Jones is awful, I’m not sure Kelleher is much better.

Kelleher got taken down so easy in the last two fights, and Garbrandt got a couple takedowns against Jones so I think we’ll se Cody get a takedown or two to eat up clock and land ground and pound. Whether it’s on the feet or on the ground, Cody is better I’ll take him to win this one.

Irene Aldana -205 v Karol Rosa +170

This feels like a big step up in competition for Rosa and a step down in competition for Aldana. Aldana stepped in short notice to save an Amanda Nunes fight, and I feel like this is her reward as she’s just better than Rosa.

Aldana fights the top of the divison, and her recent losses are to Amanda Nunes and Holly Holm 3 years ago when Holm was still elite.

Karol Rosa has lost to Norma Dumont and Sara McMann recently, and her striking and movement isn’t the caliber of Aldana so I expect Aldana to control the pace and spacing and land more shots than Rosa and harder shots than Rosa.

Aldana has finishing capabilities as she has finishes in her last three wins while Rosa has no finishes in the UFC. This is a great parlay piece on Aldana ML as she should control this fight from start to finish on the feet.

Bryce Mitchell -166 v Josh Emmett +140

Both of these guys lost to Ilia Topuria in their last loss, but Mitchell pulled off the win a couple months agao against Dan Ige where he controlled position, and did no damage whatsoever, and he ended up in the hospital after his “win” because of how beat up his eye was.

Emmett has looked old and slow in his last couple fights, and I think Mitchell isn’t going to have any trouble taking him down.

That’s Mitchell’s game, is to take guys down hold them there and hope the judges believe in the same outspoken opinions about religion and politics that he spouts off in interviews.

If he has a judge or two that thinks like him, they’ll give him the fight so I’ve decided the only way to bet Bryce Mitchell fights is to bet on him, or pass.

The UFC tells us that damage matters in judging, but we’ve seen in his last fight and several other fights that it doesn’t matter, which makes fights like these difficult to bet.

I think Emmett is in trouble in this fight as he doesn’t have the stamina or takedown defense to thwart Mitchell all fight so it’s Mitchell or pass for me.

Ian Garry -360 v Vicente Luque +285

Ian Garry seems to getting better with each fight, and his last two fights have been impressive as he knocked out Daniel Rodriguez two fights ago, and then brutalized Neil Magny with leg kicks en route to a decisive win.

His striking looks very crisp and powerful, but he’s shown lapses in his striking defense and Luque will have to make him pay if he’s to pull the upset.

Luque had lost two fights in a row before beating Rafael dos Anjos last fight in a grueling fight with lots of clinching against the cage. It was a good stylistic matchup for Luque, but this fight isn’t as Garry is so quick on the feet, and his striking from distance won’t let Luque get in close.

This should be an Ian Garry showcase fight on the feet with Garry using leg kicks and jabs to dominate, and unless Luque can push Garry against the fence and possibly get a takedown, I think he’s in for a rough fight. Garry should win this one.

Paddy Pimblett -340 v Tony Ferguson +270

I’ll leave this write-up short as I don’t like seeing Tony Ferguson fight anymore. I legit worry about his health and the damage he’s taken over the years.

This is a fighter who has lost 6 straight fights, and it should be 7 fights after Pimblett beats him on Saturday, and he’s a punching bag at this point, but people love him and that’s why he’s on this card.

Paddy isn’t great, but Ferguson is a shot fighter at this point and should melt when Paddy hits him, and I do think Ferguson will land shots on Pimblett, but Pimblett has a big advantage in the wrestling and ground game, and I do think that might be where Paddy gets the finish.

Ferguson has a punchers chance because Pimblett’s strike defense isn’t good, but I don’t see a KO coming for Ferguson, and I think Pimblett ends up beating an old guy in this fight.

Pimblett is a good parlay piece for betting purposes, but I won’t enjoy this fight at all if Ferguson looks damaged early on.

Shavkat Rakhmonov -520 v Stephen Thompson +390

Shavkat is a title contender, and as long as he doesn’t mess around on the feet for too long, and gets this to the ground, this should be a dominant victory for him.

Stephen Thompson is a great striker, and has a difficult karate stance to deal with, but he’s a fish out of water on the ground, and that’s where Rakhmonov excels. It’s a steep price at -510, but Rakhmonov should take Thompson down and finish on the ground so I’ll take Rakhmonov to win inside the distance.

Alesandre Pantoja -192 v Brandon Royval +160

Royval’s last loss was to Pantoja two years ago, and while I like Royval, I just can’t bet him in this matchup.

I think Pantoja has evolved beautifully over the years, and he’s in his prime and coming off a close split decision against Moreno, and I think his power will be too much for Royval.

Royval has won all three fights since his loss to Pantoja, and he’ll be motivated for sure to get his revenge so I see the power advantage in Pantoja and the revenge advantage in Royval so I can’t bet anything with confidence in this fight.

Even the distance props are tough for me to figure out as both guys are finishers, but I think there could be a feeling out process to start this fight and both guys might be cautious and wanting to avoid getting finished. Either way, this will be a fight I’ll just sit back and enjoy and not worry about betting.

UFC 296: Leon Edwards -160 vs Colby Covington +135

Money has been coming in on Edwards so if you like Covington, wait til closer to fight night and then bet him.

I lean ever so slightly towards Edwards mostly because of the layoff of Covington, and because I really haven’t been that impressed with his performances.

He beat Masvidal, but Masvidal is completely overrated and admitted he didn’t plan for Covington’s wrestling, which is completely insane as that’s what Covington does.

Before that, Covington lost to Usman, before that he beat a washed Tyron Woodley, and before that he lost to Usman again.

Covington will try and clinch and wrestle, but Edwards just beat Usman who likes to do the same thing so I believe Edwards has a gameplan already in place for defeating Covington.

Edwards should have the striking advantage, and as long as he doesn’t get caught in long stretches of being controlled by Covington, I think he wins here. It’s not a strong play, but I like Edwards to win.

I also like this to go into the later rounds as I don’t see Covington finishing Edwards, and with the wrestling and clinch approach, there might be limited chances to get finished. Over 2.5 rounds and Edwards ML are my plays in this fight.

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