UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds January 20

UFC 297 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 297 predictions and picks for January 20th with Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis headlining the event in a middleweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada.

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Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis: UFC 297 Main Event

Saturday, January 20	UFC 297 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Sean Strickland -130 vs Dricus Du Plessis +110
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -225 / Under +185)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Canada
TV:	PPV

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UFC 297 Predictions

Malcolm Gordon -130 v Jimmy Flick +110

Both these guys are bad, but Jimmy Flick is worse. Flick came back to UFC and was pretty open that he had/is having money and personal trouble and wanted to get back into fighting, and it’s gone terrible as he’s gotten ground and pounded in both fights since his return, and hasn’t shown much potential.

Flick is one dimensional as he wants the fight to get on the ground so he can serach submissions, but if he doesn’t get there on his submission, he’s pretty much worthless.

Gordon isn’t great, but he has striking, and decent defense on the ground. As bad as he is, he should get this win against Flick who is one of the worst fighters on the roster.

Jasmine Jasudavicius -395 v Priscila Cachoeira +310

The last two fights for Jasudavicius have been interesting as she had a cominating win agianst Miranda Maverick, but Maverick was pretty adament that the eye poke in round one compromised her vision which would explain the lack of activity from her.

Jasudavicius looked great in that match, but lost the next fight to Tracy Cortez who was able to out wrestle her.

The line is so wide on this fight because Cachoeira has a weakness with takedowns and wrestling as Miranda Maverick was able to take her down and eventually get the submission in round 3 in her last fight, and that’s the obvious path to victory for Jasmine in this fight.

Cachoeira should have the striking advantage, but Jasudavicius will probably close the distance and not let Cachoeira stand at range. Jasmine is the pick to win, but the line is too wide for me to bet.

Yohan Lainesse -155 v Sam Patterson +130

I will be playing this fight to go under 2.5 rounds as this should be a brutal striking match on the feet. Lainesse has power, but his cardio is a big question as he has faded in his fights, and 3 out of his 4 Contender Series and UFC fights haven’t made it to round 3.

Patterson is a tall, lanky fighter who has power, but he was brutally knocked out in his UFC debut by Yanal Ashmouz so we saw that when he stepped up in competition, his chin and striking defense didn’t hold up.

Paterson has had 13 pro fights, and 11 haven’t gone the distance. I expect someone to go to sleep in this one, the under is the way to play this one.

Gillian Robertson -230 v Polyana Viana +190

I’m not high on either of these fighters as both have holes in their game so I won’t be betting on it. Viana can only beat the worst fighters in the UFC and every time she gets a step up in competition she loses, and Robertson would be considered a decent competitor despite her 12-8 record.

Most of Robertson’s wins have come by submission, and she only has one decision win in her UFC career so if you like Robertson to win, you might as well wait til props come out and take her to win ITD, but I won’t be betting on this fight.

Serhiy Sidey -175 v Ramon Taveras +145

This is a great fight to go under as it’s a rematch from Contender Series. Dana White has a hard on for Taveras for some reason, but I’m not that impressed by him as he’s a boxer and isn’t well rounded.

He got finished by Sidey on Contender Series, but Dana White threw a hissy fit and said it was a fast stoppage so he gave Taveras another fight against somone who might as well have been a mannequin.

Sidey has striking and a solid ground game and I expect him to win again here as Taveras has a lot of work to do to compete in the UFC in my opinion.

However, Taveras does have power and a punchers chance so I’ll be playing this fight under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece as both fighters are very aggressive and are constantly searching for finishes.

Charles Jourdain -180 v Sean Woodson +140

Jourdain is the rightful favorite here as I’m not real high on Woodson, despite his great record at 10-1. Woodson is tall and big for the division, but he just doesn’t look like the killer that he should be.

He has one finish in the UFC and that’s to Colin Anglin who isn’t in the UFC and he’s losing fights on the regional scene.

Woodson has effective point striking, but the volume and power just isn’t there to get finishes it appears. Jourdain is coming off a sick submission win against Ricardo Ramos where Ramons shot in and ended up on top, but Jourdain scrambled and got the nice submission.

For me, I just don’t trust Jourdain as that win was a bit random, and the rest of his wins in the UFC have been to subpar opponents, and when he’s faced better opponents like Nathaniel Wood, Shane Burgos and Julian Erosa, he’s lost them all.

I think the best way to play this fight is to take it to go the distance or use some alt line overs. This is probably going to be a fight that takes place on the feet, and neither guy has the power that scares anyone. This fight to start round 2 would be a nice parlay pice for me.

Brad Katona -192 v Garrett Armfield +160

It’s a Brad Katona fight so I’ll be taking an over of some sort. Katona has 14 fights that have gone the distance in his career including 6 straight.

He’s not a power striker, and he doesn’t have a great submission game so he grinds out wins with his technique and solid cardio.

Most of his fights are fairly boring, but his last fight in the UFC against Cody Gibson was a great fight that took place on the feet and both guys had success piecing up the other, but again…it went the distance.

Garrett Armfield is 1-1 in the UFC and has fought a really good opponent and a really bad opponent so this will be interesting to see how he looks against someone pretty close to his equal in my opinion.

He won his last fight by KO, but his opponent was terrible so I don’t expect him to have that level of success.

I’ll lean Katona to win this fight just because he seemingly never gets tired and should have more left in the tank later in the fight, but instead of a side I’ll just play this over 1.5 as a parlay piece or just play it to go the distance.

Movsar Evloev -185 v Arnold Allen +154

This should be one of the more fun fights on the card. Both guys are skilled strikers, and I would give the edge to Arnold Allen on the feet, but the advantage that Evloev has in the wrestling and takedown game is why he’s the favorite here.

Make no mistake, Evloev has power in his strikes that he showed against Dan Ige as he really beat up Ige on the feet, and he showed his elite ability on the ground in that same fight, and then in his last fight against Diego Lopes who is great on the ground as well.

Arnold Allen is coming off his first loss in the UFC against Max Holloway where Holloway won a 5 round boxing match, and Allen certainly held his own, but he’s going to have to show he can hang with Evloev on the ground, and I just don’t think he’ll be able to.

We really haven’t seen Allen tested a lot in the ground game, but he will be here, and I think Evloev will be too much for him. I think the odds are appropriate though, and I won’t be betting this fight as there’s not much value here.

Chris Curtis -180 v Marc-Andre Barriault +150

This is going to be a brutal fight on the feet as both guys will stand at range or in the clinch and pound away.

Barriault can do the rope-a-dope where he lets his opponent hit him over and over again while Barriault turtles up and blocks a lot of shots, but he can also strike in the middle of the ring, and he has good footwork and good cardio.

Chris Curtis has a lot of the same characteristics, but his last two fights have been affected by accidental head clashes as his last one was ruled a no contest, and before that he lost a close one to Gastelum after a big head clash in the second that affected Curtis a ton.

This fight is really close, but I’ll give the edge to Curtis as he’s fought the better competition, and I think is just a bit more crisp than Barriault.

I won’t betting Curtis, but I do like this fight over 1.5 rounds. These two are probably going to feel each other out for a few minutes, and both are tough as nails so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slug it out for a while, maybe even the full three rounds.

Mike Malott -325 v Neil Magny +260

Experience vs. Momentum in this fight as Malott is undefeated in the UFC, but the competition has been less than stellar. He’s shown he has KO power, but he can also submit as he showed last fight against Fugitt.

I don’t question the ability of Malott, but we just haven’t seen him tested, and we haven’t seen him get farther than a minute into the second round so what will he look like if this fight goes the distance, and can Neil Magny push Malott into deep waters?

Magny hasn’t looked great as he got destroyed by Ian Garry and Gilbert Burns, and then won a split decision against Phil Rowe.

Magny will try and use his reach, and clinch game to slow Malott down, but I really wonder if he has much left in the tank. He’s 36 years old, and hasn’t looked good on his feet, and Malott will surely have the speed and power advantage.

Malott is too big of a favorite to bet, but I do think he gets the win. If you think Malott is going to win, take him inside the distance as Magny has been finished in two of his last three losses, and he barely survived against Garry.

Mayra Bueno Silva -166 v Raquel Pennington +140

This is a Fade The Baby fight.

This is a pretty simple bet for me as I like Mayra Bueno Silva to handle Pennington. Silva’s last fight got overturned because she tested positive for a drug used to treat ADHD, but it’s a drug she’s taken for years, and has never had issues with it and is open about taking it and it doesn’t appear to be performance enhancing as she stops taking it a week before her fights.

I don’t worry about that, and the fact is she finished Holly Holm, and that’s three finishes in a row for her. She can drive me nuts with some of her cocky moments in the ring, but she’s looked dialed in recently and her striking and submission game looks so good right now that I wouldn’t be surprised if she finishes Pennington.

Pennington has won 5 in a row, but her last fight was a close split decision against Ketlen Vieira, and the 35 year old has a big red flag coming into this fight as her and her wife had a baby in June.

This has been a great angle in the UFC, and I expect it to cash here. Pennington hasn’t fought in a year, and when we look at Pennington’s career, she loses when she steps up in competition as she lost to Amanda Nunes, Germaine de Randamie and Holly Holm a few years ago.

Pennington is a solid striker, but I didn’t think she was great against Viera as she was bloodied up pretty good, and I like Silva to have success everywhere against her.

UFC 297 Main Event: Sean Strickland -130 vs Dricus Du Plessis +110

This fight is going to have a lot of bad blood betwen these two fighters, and it’s going to be an exciting fight, but I don’t find any value in betting it.

Strickland is going to work his boxing and jabs to keep Du Plessis at range, and Du Plessis is going to try and get inside those strikes to land some big KO shots.

The cardio of Du Plessis has been a big concern, but he had nasal surgery and he looked amazing in his last fight where he dominated and knocked out Robert Whittaker. I will lean to Du Plessis to win this matchup as I’m not sold on the last couple opponents for Strickland.

Adesanya didn’t look good before the fight started, and I wonder if the wear and tear of the last 6 years finally caught up to him.

Even with him looking bad, Strickland couldn’t knock him out. Before that Strickland beat Abus Magomedov who has no cardio, and while I give all the credit to Strickland for beating those guys, I think Du Plessis at 100% might be the best opponent he’s ever faced.

Du Plessis is so unorthodox, he’s hard to hit and hard to figure out, and I give him the slight edge in this one. I won’t be betting it as the value isn’t there, but this one should be incredible to watch.

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