UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 13

UFC 300 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 300 predictions and picks for April 13th with Alex Pereira and Jamahal Hill headlining the main event in a light heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

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Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill: UFC 300 Main Event

Saturday, April 13	UFC 300 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alex Pereira -140 vs Jamahal Hill +115
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

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UFC 300 Predictions

Deiveson Figueiredo -305 v Cody Garbrandt +260

I’m all in on Figueiredo in this new weight division as the weight cuts got too hard for him, and he made his debut against the taller and bigger Rob Font, and while he started off a bit slow, he ended up dominating Font, and I think we see the same thing here.

Garbrandt has won two in a row, but barely beating Trevin Jones in unconvincing fashion wasn’t great, and then he knocked out Brian Kelleher, but Kelleher is at the end of his career.

Garbrandt will be taller, but Fig will have a longer reach and I really think we see Fig having the advantage in wrestling and striking.

His clinch work looked good against Font, and I see it being effective against Garbrandt. I don’t see where Garbrandt submits or KO’s Figueiredo, and with the superior wrestling and striking game I like Fig to dominate here.

Bobby Green -180 v Jim Miller +150

A fight that has been years in the making as Jim Miller does the impossible and will compete at UFC 100, 200 and 300. Green is coming off of two quick KOs as he KO’d Dawson in 30 seconds in October, and then he got KO’d by Jalin Turner halfway through round one.

Green will certainly be using his jabs and footwork to keep Miller on the outside, and Miller will have to figure out how to get inside those jabs to force the wrestling or do damage to Green with kicks on the outside, but it will be a tough task for Miller.

I do have a little question about the chin of Bobby Green as he was knocked out by Dober in 2022 and then by Turner just a few months ago while Miller hasn’t been finished in six years. I think Green is the rightful favorite, but the value is clearly on Miller as the dog.

Miller is 40 years old so Green should be faster, but Miller seems to have more weapons as he has better kicks, clinch and wrestling, and there’s a chance that Green’s chin is a bit soft going into this fight so I’ll take a sprinkle on Miller to win this one.

Jessica Andrade -135 v Marina Rodriguez +114

Both fighters had lost a couple of fights in a row before getting wins in their last fight so this fight is very important to both fighters as one will come out of it with two wins in a row, and the other will have one win in their last four.

I believe this fight stays on the feet for the entire fight, and over three rounds I give the slight edge to Rodriguez. I think her volume ends up getting the edge as Andrade has power, but she can wait for her opponent to walk her down to set up counterpunches, and Rodriguez has accuracy and power on the feet to take advantage of it.

Rodriguez has the length advantage so I think the optics of her volume and accuracy with jabs sway the judges. I also like the knees of Rodriguez in close quarters so the pick is with the underdog, but don’t be surprised if this is a razor-thin split decision.

Jalin Turner -238 v Renato Moicano +195

For entertainment purposes, I would like to see Moicano win so we get his post-fight
interview which is always entertaining, but this is going to be a tough fight for him. Moicano is coming off a great win against Dober where he used his ground game to tire out and get the decision win against Drew Dober, and he got the quick submission against Brad Riddell before that, But Turner is his toughest opponent by far.

Turner lost a close one to Gamrot, a year ago, and then lost a close one to Dan Hooker where Turner was so close to finishing Hooker, but he didn’t finish him when he had the chance and his gas tank went away.

On the positive side, his striking looked great and he was seconds away from finishing Hooker, and his striking should be light years better than Moicano in this one.

Turner just has to stay out of the dangerous grappling and submission situations that Moicano will be constantly looking for, and while Moicano will have success at times with his takedowns and grappling I think Turner will be too much for him on the feet.

One area I think Moicano has an advantage is cardio. If Moicano can win one of the first two rounds, there’s a chance he outworks Turner in the third so if you’re looking at live lines and you see Turner start to tire out, Moicano could steal the round and win a close one. However, I think Turner will be too much with punches and kicks, he’s the pick here.

Diego Lopes -142 v Sodiq Yusuff +120

Diego Lopes has looked great in his UFC career as he lost against Evloev, but he almost had Evloev in a ton of submissions and he more than held his own in his UFC debut. He then got two first-round wins against Tucker and Sabatini, one by submission and one by finish.

Along with having amazing hair, Lopes will be the taller, longer fighter with better submission and ground game, and I think he may have a more dynamic striking game.

Yusuff had a strange fight in his last fight where he looked amazing in round one against Barboza, and then faded and lost the next four rounds.

The good news for him is that this is only three rounds, but the bad news is he can’t fall off with his energy like he did last time or Lopes will pounce and probably get the finish. I haven’t been that impressed with Yusuff for a while.

His last couple of wins are against Don Shainis and Alex Caceres while he’s lost to Barboza and Arnold Allen and I think the upside of Lopes is worth the -142 price tag.

Yusuff has never been finished in the UFC, but Lopes has the tools to change that on Saturday. I’ll just play the moneyline, but I won’t be shocked if Lopes gets a submission win here.

Kayla Harrison -500 v Holly Holm +340

The only way to play this is Holly Holm, and to get even better value you can take Holm by decision. To be honest, neither of these fighters has looked great recently as they’re big names, but past their prime.

Harrison lost to Pacheco two fights ago, and then beat Aspen Ladd by decision in a fight where Harrison looked slow and not as dominating as usual.

Holm was finished by Silva in her last fight, but it was ruled a no-contest after a positive drug test by Silva, but make no mistake Holm looked bad. Harrison will want to get this fight to the ground where she can win the ground game, but Holm has probably been working non-stop on takedown defense.

On the feet, Holm will stick and move and keep the distance, and Harrison’s bad striking will be on full display. At these odds, you can’t lay it on Harrison so Holm will be the play here.

Aljamain Sterling -170 v Calvin Kattar +142

I think Kattar is in trouble in this one. He’s lost three out of four fights, and he’s coming off of a serious knee injury against an opponent who is going to force the wrestling and grappling on him.

Kattar should have the better striking, but Sterling isn’t going to stand there and let him win a boxing match, especially after getting knocked out against O’Malley in his last UFC fight.

Interestingly, Sterling has done three grappling matches since the O’Malley fight so that may be an indication of what he’s going to bring to the table in this fight. Kattar’s last win was against Chikadze, and while he won by doing a lot of damage to Giga, Kattar was losing early before Giga slipped and fell and it went downhill from there.

I’ve been out on Kattar in his last two fights as we cashed on Emmett and Allen beating him, and I’ll continue that trend as I think Sterling is going to be faster on the feet which will let him dictate the pace and where the fight takes place. Sterling will want this fight to get to the ground, and I think he gets it there en route to victory.

Aleksandar Rakic -135 v Jiri Prochazka +114

This is a stay-away fight for me. Rakic is coming back from a serious knee injury he suffered almost two years ago, and Jiri came back from a serious shoulder injury to get knocked out by Alex Pereira in November.

I don’t trust either of these guys as we don’t know how their cardio, strength, and skills will be compared to pre-injuries. Before the injuries, I liked Jiri a lot, but I thought he looked very different in his return fight.

At the same time, Rakic wasn’t exactly dominating the best of the best before his injury so if I have to make a pick it will be Jiri, but there’s no way I’m betting money on it.

Bo Nickal -2400 v Cody Brundage +1200

The under 1.5 at -270 is a solid parlay piece as I don’t see how this fight lasts long unless Nickal wants to get more cage time against a UFC veteran. Nickal has won his first two fights in the UFC by early finishes, but Brundage may put up more of a fight than Woodburn or Picket…or he may get smoked.

The last couple of fights for Brundage have been bizarre as he was getting killed by Malkoun before a forearm brushed the back of his head and he put on an Oscar-winning performance saying that he couldn’t continue, and legendary ref Mark Smith fell for it and DQ’d Malkoun.

Next fight, Brundage picked up debutant Zach Reese and slammed him down and Reese got knocked out so craziness and early finishes have followed Brundage around for a bit.

I’m assuming Nickal wastes no time using his elite wrestling to get Brundage down, and his power and pace should get Brundage out of there early, but at -2400 there’s not much to do with this bet. Take the under and parlay it with something.

Arman Tsarukyan -218 v Charles Oliveira +180

This is such a great matchup, and this should be a great chess match with the grappling game, but from a betting perspective, I just take Oliveira at plus money every time.

Oliveira has one loss since 2017 and that’s to Islam Makhachev, and this is a guy who has finished Dariush, Gaethje, Poirier and Chandler in his last four wins. His submission and grappling game is elite, and getting +180 against anyone is fantastic value.

Tsarukyan is one of the elite fighters and his wrestling and grappling is top-tier, but the last guy he lost to was Gamrot who could match him with the wrestling, and I think Oliveira can give him trouble in wrestling and grappling.

Oliveira can submit almost anyone on the planet, and I wouldn’t put it past him to pull off another submission here, but on the feet I think Tsarukyan has the power advantage so taking this fight to not go the distance is probably a solid play.

Both guys will take chances to get the other one out of there which sets up plenty of opportunities for finishes. I like Oliveira to win, and this fight to not go the distance.

Justin Gaethje -180 v Max Holloway +150 (BMF Title)

This will be a striker’s delight, and it will come down to the length and volume of Holloway vs. the power of Gaethje. I feel like both of these guys have been undervalued in some of their fights, and it feels like Holloway is undervalued here.

He’s lost four fights since 2023, and three of them are to Alexander Volkanovski. He’s a boxer with incredible accuracy and volume, but Gaethje will probably have kicks in his arsenal that Holloway won’t have and we saw how powerful those kicks can be in Gaethje’s knockout win over Poirier.

Gaethje has more one-shot power, whereas Holloway gets it done by landing strike after strike with non-stop pressure, and while I expect both guys to be beat to hell at the end of this one, I think Holloway survives the huge shots of Gaethje and gets the decision win.

The +150 price tag is too good to pass up on Hollloway as I think the volume pays dividends in the later rounds.

Weili Zhang -435 v Yan Xiaonan +335

I have this pegged as a potential upset that kills everyone’s parlays. Zhang is incredible, but I went back and watched Yan’s last couple of fights and I think her speed is going to cause some problems, especially with her kicks.

Zhang has power and wrestling that are unmatched at this level, but Yan has nothing to lose in this fight as nobody expects her to win, and her striking is no joke and I think she can have success on the feet. The other thing I can’t get out of my head is the importance of this fight in their country, culture, and career.

This is a fight unlike any other for Japan, and I can make the case that this fight means more to these two fighters than any other fight on the card, and both of them will be training harder than anyone else on this card.

This will be an absolute war, and I want the fighter with a chip on her shoulder at big plus money. I think she can soften up Zhang at a distance, and she’ll certainly lose a round or two but I think she’ll make this fight violent and close and I want to be holding a plus money ticket.

UFC 300 Main Event: Alex Pereira -140 vs Jamahal Hill +115

The line has Pereira as a favorite, but I feel like the general concensus is the public loves Hill, and I don’t see it. If this were a level playing field, I would like the power of Hill to catch Pereira a couple times and possibly get the knockout, but this isn’t a level playing field.

Hill is coming off a serious achilles injury less than a year ago, and he’s clearly not in amazing fight shape where Pereira is in great shape and 100% healthy.

Pereira already has the better kicks, and on those legs that aren’t 100% ready, I see Hill getting damaged early and often. I’ve seen Pereira get tired at times during his fights, but is Hill going to have the cardio to push the pace and test Pereira’s gas tank?

I doubt it, and I think it’s the other way around. Pereira will have the better cardio and Hill will tire out. The other thing I can’t get out of my head is Hill’s last four wins.

He beat Jimmy Crute who isn’t in the UFC anymore, Johnny Walker who is 4-5 in his last nine fights, Thiago Santos who isn’t in the UFC anymore, and he couldn’t finish Glover Teixeira who was in his 40s in his retirement fight.

I’m not that impressed, and while Hill has one shot KO power, I don’t think he’s well-rounded like Pereira. I’ll take Pereira as a confident play in this fight.

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