UFC 301: Pantoja vs Erceg Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 4

UFC 301 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 301 predictions and picks for May 4th with Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg headlining the main event in a flyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Farmasi Arena in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg: UFC 301 Main Event

Saturday, May 4	UFC 301 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alexandre Pantoja -240 vs Steve Erceg +195
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -150 / Under +120)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Farmasi Arena in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
TV:	PPV

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UFC 301 Predictions

Alessandro Costa -142 v Kevin Borjas +120

Borjas got schooled by Josh Van in his UFC debut as he was on his back foot most of the fight, and he had pretty bad defense to Van’s body shots and overall striking.

His striking was ok, but he was on defense most of the fight and he couldn’t get anything going. His striking was pretty vanilla, and it’s not good when the best thing you can say about a fighter is they’re tough.

Costa went the distance against Erceg in his last fight, which has aged really well, and he had his moments on the feet, and he had a takedown in round 2 with a bit of control time.

Borjas has a lot of improving to do with his defense, and I’m not sure it’s going to be that much better in this fight. I’ll pick Costa to win.

Ismael Bonfim -470 v Vinc Pichel +360

Ismael Bonfim loses to Benoit Saint-Denis so they drop him down to fight 42-year-old Vinc Pichel?

Quite the stop down and I’ll take Bonfim to get back to his winning ways as he’ll be way more athletic, and faster on the feet, and based on what Pichel showed in his last fight which was over a year ago, Bonfim will have the better cardio.

I don’t see what the path to victory is for Pichel as his striking and wrestling looked below average, and to be blunt…he’s 42 years old, and probably is not ready to compete with Bonfim. Bonfim is a great parlay piece.

Dione Barbosa -218 v Ernesta Kareckaite +180

Kareckaite surprised everyone on Contender Series as she had been low volume and low pressure in previous fights, but her and Carli Judice put on an insane fight with hundreds of punches landed.

She got the win, but this fight won’t be on the feet the entire time if Barbosa has her way. Barbosa works takedowns, and will certainly not want to stand and bang with Kareckaite so if she gets takedowns and can hold Kareckaite down, she will roll to a victory.

I’m not convinced she can do that for all 3 rounds, and Kareckaite’s striking will look way better to judges if the round is close. This is a clear dog or pass fight as Kareckaite can wear down Barbosa on the feet if she can stuff takedowns.

Mauricio Ruffy -166 v Jamie Mullarkey +140

Fading Contender Series fighters from last season has been very profitable, as they have really looked in over their heads in the UFC so I’d love to fade Ruffy here, but I can’t bet on Jamie Mullarkey.

He’s been knocked out in 2 out of his last 3 fights, and he is on the verge of being done. Mullarkey doesn’t have power anymore, and Ruffy wasn’t impressive on Contender Series as he was lucky to get the win due to his opponent gassing out in the third round.

This is a terrible fight that will look like it belongs on a regional promotion, don’t bet it.

Drakkar Klose -185 v Joaquim Silva +154

Hard to know what we’re getting from Klose in this fight. He’s 3-0 since the crazy concussion injury, and he didn’t look amazing in his first fight back, but he looked better in his second, and in his last fight he slammed the wrestler Joe Solecki unconscious less than 2 minutes into the fight so we didn’t get to see how he looked deep into the fight.

Silva is a grinder who can finish lesser-quality opponents, but his last 3 losses have all been by KO so his chin isn’t great. If Klose is back to his normal self, I think he should win, and he certainly has the power to KO Silva so he’ll be the pick, but it’s not a very confident pick so I won’t bet it.

Jean Silva -142 v William Gomis +120

I’ll make this quick as I won’t be betting this fight. Neither guy has impressed me as of now, Gomis is 3-0, but his wins were either not that impressive or against terrible fighters.

He keeps the distance on the feet and uses his kicks to keep opponents away, and Silva is aggressive and will try to get through the length to close the distance to do damage inside.

I don’t have a strong opinion on who will have the upper hand, and this fight doesn’t interest me so I won’t be betting it.

Myktybek Orolbai -280 v Elves Brener +210

This should be a fun fight as both guys are finishers, but I think Brener has more power on the feet, but Orolbai has plenty of KO finishes including the brutal one against Hayward Charles two fights ago (go look that one up).

Orolbai showed his takedown and submission skills against Medic in his UFC debut, but that fight was very short notice and Medic was training for a pure striker, and Orolbai took advantage.

Brener should be ready for the takedowns, and if he keeps it on the feet he’s a live dog for sure. Take this fight to not go the distance, but Brener at +210 is a solid play as he can put anyone to sleep at any time.

Iasmin Lucindo -360 v Karolina Kowalkiewicz +285

Lucindo showed her ground game in her last fight against Polyanna Viana as she got the submission win in round 2, and that wasn’t what I was expecting in that fight as I thought it would take place on the feet, but I do know that Kowalkiewicz will want this to stay on the feet.

Her path to victory is to point fight and outland Lucindo as she’s done to her previous few opponents, but I’m not sure it will work.

Lucindo has power and strength to disrupt KK’s volume striking, and Lucindo has more paths to finish. Lucindo is very young so she’s been getting better with each fight so I would’ve be shocked to see Lucindo have some new attacks we haven’t seen before.

I don’t think Lucindo will stand there and let KK land jab after jab like Belbita did in KK’s last fight. Lucindo’s power, and ground game give her more ways to win, she’s the pick.

Joanderson Brito -166 v Jack Shore +140

I actually think this might be a good spot for Jack Shore to get the small upset win here. Brito has finished his last 4 fights, but they aren’t as impressive as that seems.

Fili has a weak chin, Lucas Alexander isn’t that good, and Westin Wilson is terrible. His last finish against Pearce was crazy as he was getting dominated on the ground, and Pearce slipped up and Brito caught him in a Ninja Choke.

It was a great submission, but he was easily losing that fight. Shore needs to weather the early onslaught, and his cardio should be better in rounds 2 and 3, and we saw that play out in his last fight against Amirkhani when Amirkhani won the first round on the ground, but Shore had more energy in round 2 and he got the submission win on the ground late in the round.

If Shore makes it out of round 1, Brito could tire out and give Shore a great shot at winning, and I think that’s what he’ll do. I’ll take Shore at +140.

Caio Borralho -500 v Paul Craig +380

I expect Borralho to dominate Craig in this one. Borralho is so tough with his takedowns and ground control, and while his standup isn’t amazing, he doesn’t have to worry about Craig’s striking on the feet.

Craig is 1-4 in his last 5 fights, and he looked terrible against Brendan Allen. Craig’s only hope is a flash submission, but Borralho is too skilled and strong to get caught.

Borralho will get Craig on the ground, and control him for long periods of time, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets a submission or a ground and-pound win. Borralho is the easy play.

Michel Pereira -440 v Ihor Potieria +340

Potieria showed a new style in his last fight against Bryczek, as he was more patient and cautious, and he won by decision, something he hasn’t done in his last 8 fights.

However, Brycek didn’t look very good, and he got tired, and Pereira won’t give Potieria that same fight. Pereira will be in his face and will throw plenty of powerful shots so Potieria will have to get in a shootout with him, and I don’t see it going well for Potieria.

Poteria has been knocked out by Ulberg and Bellato, and I think he suffers the same fate here. Take this fight under 2.5 rounds as a parlay piece in case Potieria gets the flash KO.

Vitor Petrino -520 v Anthony Smith +390

This line is laughable. Petrino should win, but at -520 you can’t play this. Petrino is so low-volume, and at some point, it’s going to bite him. He landed 27 strikes in a fight that went to decision against Tyson Pedro, and he landed 8 strikes against Bukaskas in a fight that went to the 2nd round.

Smith doesn’t look like he has much left in the tank, but this fight is going to be at a slow pace with limited volume, and Smith might be able to make this fight seem way closer than it should be.

He’s going to have to make sure Petrino doesn’t control him against the cage or get on top of him, but if Smith can keep it standing and Petrino throws low volume, Smith can steal a round, maybe 2. No way
I’m laying this price on Petrino.

Jonathan Martinez -135 v Jose Aldo +114

This is the line that has the most confused on this card. Jose Aldo last fought in the UFC in August of 2022 when he lost to Dvalishvili, and he’s been doing boxing matches for Shooto Brasil Boxing since then, and now he’s going to step in and fight Jonathan Martinez who has won 2 of his last 3 fights by leg kick TKO’s.

I watched Aldo’s last win against Rob Font, and Font had success striking Aldo despite the unanimous decision win.

Aldo was piece up on his face, and if Font can do that to Aldo 3 years ago, I have to believe Martinez will have a field day on the 37 year old Aldo. Aldo is a master at defending leg kicks, but I think Martinez gets the better of him in this matchup.

UFC 301 Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja -240 vs Steve Erceg +195

It feels like less than a year ago, I was saying that Erceg had a good skillset and could upset David Dvorak in his UFC debut. Well, it was actually less than a year ago.

Erceg is 3-0 in the UFC, but let’s be serious here. He’s beaten Dvorak, Alessandro Costa, and Matt Schnell, and all 3 of these guys are nowhere near Pantoja’s level. Pantoja’s speed, wrestling and grappling will be way too much for Erceg, and even in the striking I’m not sure Erceg is better.

As long as Pantoja doesn’t underestimate Erceg, he should use his striking to set up the takedown where he will dominate Erceg. I’m not overthinking this one, Pantoja is the play.

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