UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 1

UFC 302 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 302 predictions and picks for June 1st with Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier headlining the main event in a lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Prudential Center, Newark, NJ

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Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier: UFC 302 Main Event

Saturday, June 1	UFC 302 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Islam Makhachev -575 vs Dustin Poirier +425
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over +135 / Under -175)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	Prudential Center, Newark, NJ
TV:	PPV

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UFC 302 Predictions

Andre Lima -205 vs Mitch Raposo +170

This feels like a gift to Lima after his last fight ended with his opponent biting him, and he handled it really well so as a reward they’re giving him Mitch Raposo who flamed out on The Ultimate Fighter, and then lost to Jake Hadley on Contender Series.

He’s been winning on the regional scene, but I haven’t been real impressed as he’s pretty limited and not well-rounded. He has good power, and that will be his advantage, but Lima will be faster, and his striking is more diverse.

He ate some big shots against Severino in his last, and it didn’t seem to bother him so I think he’ll deal with Raposo’s power just fine. Lima is the pick, but it’s not a confident one so I won’t be betting it with my own money.

Ailin Perez -205 vs Joselyn Edwards +170

I like the underdog in this fight as Perez does her best work when she gets the fight to the ground, controls position and lands ground and pound.

It worked easily against Pudilova and Evans-Smith in her last two fights, but Edwards is strong, and can stuff takedowns, and if she does she will have the advantage on the feet.

We saw Perez get tired and beat up in Round 3 so there are paths to victory for Edwards, and at +170 I think it’s worth a play.

Bassil Hafez -298 vs Mickey Gall +240

I didn’t know Mickey Gall was still around, and I have no idea what we’re going to get from him, but he hasn’t looked good in his last two fights, and I don’t know why he would look good here.

He’s a submission specialist, but he’s terrible on the feet, and I don’t know if Hafez can exploit that. Hafez stepped in short notice and went to decision against Jack Maddalena, and he’s known as a fighter who likes to take opponents down, wrestle and control.

He should have the power advantage over Gall, but I certainly won’t be betting -300 on Hafez. Gall could pull off a submission if Hafez slips up so I won’t bet on this fight.

Alex Morono -245 vs Niko Price +200

Alex Morono struggled mightily with Court McGee in his last fight, when it was McGee’s retirement match so there’s no way I lay this price.

Price’s big weakness is his chin, but Morono doesn’t seem to have the power to rock anybody, even if they do have a weak chin.

Neither of these guys have good cardio so I could see this fight going to the distance as I don’t think Morono has the power to finish Price, and Morono has solid defense and was able to go the distance against Buckley. We’ll get good odds since Price’s fights go under quite often, but I think this could be the outlier.

Jake Matthews -162 vs Phil Rowe +136

I’m not a fan of either of these guys so I’ll make it quick and just say I’m not betting on this fight. Both guys don’t have great fight IQ, and Rowe’s only three wins in the UFC are against guys with glass chins, and Matthews has lost two out of three fights against bad fighters.

I guess Matthews should have the advantage on the ground, but it doesn’t matter as I have no interest in betting this one.

Grant Dawson -355 vs Joe Solecki +280

Two guys who like to wrestle, and get this fight to the ground, but Dawson should be way better. Dawson is coming off of losing in 30 seconds on a flash knockout to Bobby Green, but Solecki isn’t going to do that to him.

Dawson is an elite wrestler, and once he locks in his body triangle, Solecki won’t be able to get out of it. I don’t see Solecki getting much control time in this one, it’s just a bad matchup for him. Dawson by decision is the play.

Roman Kopylov -125 vs Cesar Almeida +105

Cesar Almeida has some momentum behind him, but let’s be honest. He beat a takedown “specialist” who wasn’t good at takedowns on Contender Series, and then a guy who gets beat up on the feet in Dylan Budka, neither of which are in the same ballpark of talent as Roman Kopylov.

Kopylov lost his last race, but that was a terrible matchup against Fluffy Hernandez. Almeida is a good striker, but so is Kopylov, and I think Kopylov gets the better of him on the feet.

Kopylov has had cardio issues in the past so if Almeida can take him into deeper waters it could be an issue, but I think Kopylov is going to be too much early on.

I think he damages Almeida up and takes away the danger that Almeida possesses, and he gets the KO or decision win. I love the -125 price on this.

Randy Brown -175 vs Elize Zaleski Dos Santos +145

Randy Brown finally got a TKO win against Muslin Salikhov, and although it was against an old fighter, it was nice to see him get an exciting finish.

Dos Santos is a tough fighter who showed he can go for three full rounds in his last fight, and I think it’s he’s the type of fighter that can give Brown trouble.

He keeps coming forward, doesn’t give up, and the crowd loves his gritty fighting style, Brown can get complacent, and low-volume, and if he does that against Dos Santos, I can see the judges giving the fight to Dos Santos. Brown always seems to underwhelm, and I don’t like betting on him so it’s dog or pass in this one.

Jailton Almeida -270 vs Alexandr Romanov +220

I’m just out on Romanov. He’s had some personal issues outside the ring, and weight/ cardio issues inside the ring. If the fight gets out of the first, he just has nothing left, and I don’t see how he fixes that.

Almeida should be faster and have the more crisp striking, and unless he gets finished in the first round, he’ll either get the finish in the 2nd or 3rd or he’ll waltz to a decision win. Almeida is a great parlay piece, or if you’re feeling frisky, taking Almeida by finish is also an option.

Kevin Holland -238 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +195

You’re crazy if you lay this price on Kevin Holland. He treats his fights like sparring sessions most of the time, and we’ve seen him lose to Michael Page, and Stephen Thompson where he just gave away the fight or looked terrible.

He should win this fight as he’s the better striker, and Olek has a low ceiling with no ground game so all signs point to a Holland win, but I just can’t pull the trigger on it. Holland fights are not bettable in my opinion.

Sean Strickland -230 vs Paulo Costa +190

I smell a Strickland letdown here, and I kind of like Costa at +190 here, and I have won quite a bit of money betting against Costa so this is a new stance for me, but I just don’t know if I can take Costa to win in a 5 round fight.

Strickland reached his peak when he beat Adesanya, but Adesanya was ready for a letdown himself after the Alex Pereira win, and then he lost to Du Plessis right after the Adesanya win, and as he’s said many times, he fights to get paychecks.

Costa looked much better in his last fight against Whittaker than I expected, and he has power, and his cardio looked better than in the past, but 5 rounds is a lot for Costa, and we’ve Strickland manage this distance with no problem.

I like this fight to reach the 4th round so over 2.5 rounds would be a solid bet for me, and as much as I want to bet on Costa, I probably won’t get there as 5 rounds is too much for him.

UFC 302 Main Event: Islam Makhachev -575 vs Dustin Poirier +425

Pretty simple handicap here, Makhachev will dance around on the feet with Poirier until he sees the opening to pounce, and once he gets his arms around Poirier, I don’t see Poirier getting up for the rest of the round.

I like betting on Khabib’s guys because they don’t screw around, and they’re goal is to win, and they take their best path.

They don’t get cute, they don’t get fancy, and I don’t think Makhachev wants to get into a striking match with Poirier so I think he gets this to the ground quick and easy, and he eventually gets the finish. Makhachev by finish is how I will be playing this one.

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