UFC 303: Pereira vs Prochazka Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 29

UFC 303 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 303 predictions and picks for June 29th with Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka headlining the main event in a light heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.

WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long!

Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka: UFC 303 Main Event

Saturday, June 29	UFC 303 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alex Pereira -166 vs Jiri Prochazka +140
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

Before You Read UFC 303 Predictions… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including UFC 303 & More

UFC 303 Predictions

Ricky Simon -218 vs Vinicius de Oliviera +180

Oliviera has power for sure, but his fight IQ has a lot to be desired. He’s gotten away with his pure strength and power to get him here, and he’s coming off an insane KO against Benardo Sopaj at the end of the fight, but Ricky Simon is going to put him through hell with his takedowns and chain wrestling. Simon is coming off of 2 straight losses to Yadong Song and Mario Bautista, but Song is a contender and Bautista fought an amazing fight.

In both losses, Simon looked good, he was just up against better competition. Simon just needs to stay away from the big power shot, work his wrestling and I think Oliviera gets a much needed humbling in this fight.

Martin Buday -278 vs Andrei Arlovski +225

This might be it for Arlovski as he’s 45 years old, and he’s lost 3 straight fights to bad competition. He just doesn’t have the power or the cardio to win fights anymore as he has a few minutes of cardio, and then it falls off a cliff and he just tries to not get finished.

When he throws punches or kicks now, they’re in slow motion and they aren’t doing damage so opponents aren’t scared to walk forward on him. Buday is coming off a bad loss where he got destroyed on the feet against Gaziev, but before that he has won 4 straight UFC fights.

He isn’t going to have to do much to win this fight, just use the jab on the feet, be patient, and stay active, and he should cruise to a win here. I don’t see a path to victory for Arlovski outside of a random injury to Buday.

Gillian Robertson -198 vs Michelle Waterson Gomez +164

Gomez is 1-7 in his last 8 fights so it’s going to be hard to make the case for her. She just has terrible striking defense, and although she pushes forward, she pushes forward into punches.

She doesn’t have striking that will scare Robertson, and Robertson is coming off a nice ground and pound win against Polyana Viana.

Even though Robertson isn’t a great striker, it should be good enough to piece up Gomez, and I expect Robertson to get this to the ground where her submission/ground and pound will be good enough to get the win.

Payton Talbott -1600 vs Yanis Ghemmouri +900

No writeup needed for this one. It’s a layup for Talbott as he’s better everywhere, and probably gets the finish. It’s a showcase fight for Talbott as the UFC is very high on him and they are bringing him along slow.

Ghemmouri comes from BRAVE and got smoked in his UFC debut against Gomis who isn’t as good as Talbott. Talbott ITD is the play.

Charles Jourdain -122 vs Jean Silva +102

It’s hard to get behind Jean Silva in this one as I think he’s talented, but I think he has a limited UFC ceiling. He went to decision against Kevin Vajellos on Contender Series, which doesn’t impress me too much, and then he knocked out Westin Wilson in his UFC debut who has one of the glassiest chins in UFC history.

Silva has power, but I see Jourdain with the speed advantage, and I think his striking is a bit more complex and unique. Jourdain has lost to Woodson, Wood and Burgos in his last five fights, but all went to decision and all were very close.

Jourdain has three wins by submission in his last four wins so if it gets to the ground, he’s live for a choke win. I’ll lean Jourdain for the win, but it’s not bettable for me as Jourdain just seems to come up a bit short in some of these close decisions.

Andre Fili -205 vs Cub Swandon +170

I’m not real high on either guy so this is a pass for me. Swanson is coming off a decision win that he even admitted he didn’t win after the fight (outstruck 95-77 to Dawodu), and Fili is 3-6-1 in his last 10.

Swanson is 40, and his best days are behind him, and I really thought last fight was going to be his retirement fight as his family was in the audience, and he didn’t seem that excited about the fight.

I question if his heart is really in it, but Fili’s chin is getting weaker and weaker as he’s coming off a first round KO in February. No bet in this fight for me.

Joe Pyfer -270 vs Marc-Andre Barriault +215

I think this is a pretty nice price on Barriault here. I correctly predicted that Pyfer would lose to Hermansson in his last fight as I thought Pyfer would come out too hard, too earl, and that’s what happened.

I could see Pyfer doing something similar, but I’m guessing he’s going to make adjustments and be more patient. I think it opens the door for Barriault to win some close rounds on the feet as his striking is solid, and cardio is decent.

He lost a close split decision to Chris Curtis in his last fight, but if he can damage Pyfer up in the first round, Pyfer could struggle like he did the longer the fight went against Hermansson.

In theory, Pyfer should be better with the takedowns, and with more powerful strikes and upside as the odds suggest, but there’s no way I’m laying these odds. It’s Barriault or nothing.

Ian Garry -130 vs Michael Page +110

I’m excited to watch this fight as both guys fight similar styles as they use their length to keep the distance, and they throw some unorthodox kicks that can throw off their opponents.

Page shocked Kevin Holland in his UFC debut with a decision win where he was just one step ahead of Holland on the feet, and I don’t put it ahead of Page to confuse Garry at times.

Garry isn’t going to end his career undefeated, and I think this fight could be the one that trips him up. Page won’t let Garry land those leg kicks that Garry loves, and I think the sporadic movement will let Page keep Garry on the back foot en route to a close decision win.

Mayra Bueno Silva -166 vs Macy Chiasson +140

Both women have holes in their games, but I like Silva better in this matchup, but not enough to bet. Silva should be better in the clinch, and on the ground, but she gets complacent, and she can be outworked like we saw against Pennington in her last fight.

Chiasson’s wins just aren’t impressive as she’s beaten Kianzad, Dumont, Reneau and Young in her last four fights.

Her striking is ok, but not scary, and her grappling is ok, but in this matchups I just can’t figure out who will win, and in fact either one of them could make a big mistake that costs them the fight. Both make big mistakes in their fights, and there’s no reason to bet on this fight.

Roman Dolidze -142 vs Anthony Smith +120

It’s amazing to think this fight started off as Khalil Rountree v Jamahal Hill, and here we are. Anthony Smith jumped in to fight Carlos Ulberg, and I actually liked that matchup for Smith as Ulberg doesn’t have a ground game to speak of and Smith had a chance to exploit it.

However, Dolidze will be wise to Smith’s tricks in the takedowns, and in the clinch and on the feet I give Dolidze the advantage.

This won’t be an exciting fight, I expect it to go the distance and with Dolidze pulling out a boring win with low volume, and lots of clinch situations.

Diego Lopes -148 vs Brian Ortega +124

I’m all aboard the Diego Lopes train, and have been since after the Evloev fight where he lost, but looked great showing off impressive submissions, striking, and cardio.

Since then he’s finished Tucker, Sabatini and Yusuff in the first round, and while this is a step up in competition, I think Lopes is going to have the big advantage on the feet as his striking has looked fantastic, and Ortega doesn’t have the power to scare Lopes.

Ortega is a grappling and submission machine, but Lopes can hang with Ortega on the ground, and he can win scrambles to get this back on the feet where he’ll have the striking edge.

I was also struck by Ortega’s comment about not having a chance at a title shot because of who’s in front of him.

It sounded like he was a bit defeated about what the future holds for him so I look at Lopes and I see a hungry young fighter with a striking edge, and the ability to cancel out the submission edge that Ortega has. I’ll be on Lopes in this one.

UFC 303 Main Event: Alex Pereira -166 vs Jiri Prochazka +140

Jiri is a maniac, and he’s as tough as they come, but I won’t bet against Alex Pereira anytime soon. Pereira knocked out Jiri two fights ago, and even though Jiri won his last fight against Rakic, I’m not sure Jiri is back to his old self after the shoulder surgery over a year ago.

Rakic has had a ton of injuries in his past, and he was finiding success against Jiri in the first round with kicks and strikes.

Jiri eventually got the upper hand, and the finish, but his wild style leaves himself open to get hit, and Pereira only needs one opening to put the lights out.

Pereira had success with leg kicks in their first fight, and they’re so powerful, it knocked Jiri off balance almost every time.

Pereira was also able to maintain the proper distance to stay away from Jiri’s striking, and when Jiri did finally get inside, Pereira knocked him out.

I do think Jiri could try and squeak out a decision win by using his speed, and just jabbing at distance and moving around, similar to what Volkov did to Pavlovich, but that’s not in his DNA. He wants to brawl, and Pereira will oblige. I expect leg kicks early from Pereira leading to another KO. Pereira is the pick.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

• Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
• Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
• Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!