UFC 306: O'Malley vs Dvalishvili Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 14

UFC 306 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 306 and picks for September 14th with the main event headlined by Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili in a bantamweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Sphere in Las Vegas, NV.

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Sean O’Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili: UFC 306 Main Event

Saturday, September 14	UFC 306 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Sean O’Malley -115 vs Merab Dvalishvili -105
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -130 / Under +100)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Sphere in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

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UFC 306 Predictions

Raul Rosas Jr -700 vs Aorqileng +500

This fight is kind of a joke, and will be in everyone’s parlays for sure. It’s a great way to get UFC Noche started with Rosas getting a win.

Rosas is young, athletic, and has a takedown and ground game that is already elite, and he’ll use those weapons to take Aorqileng down and get the win on the ground.

Aorquileng is older, and while he has 3 wins in his last 5 fights, they’re against awful competition. He likes the fight to stay on the feet, but Rosas won’t keep it there for long.

Aoriqileng got taken down 4 times by Johnny Munoz, 3 times by Jay Perrin, and 5 times by Cody Durden so Rosas should waste no time getting this to the ground.

Rosas by submission is going to be a popular play, but I would keep it safe and just take his ML as a parlay piece.

Josh Van -218 vs Edgar Chairez +180

Chairez’s last 3 fights have been pretty tough to get a read on him as he submitted Vazquez in Fury FC in a strange situation where the ref didn’t realize that Vazquez was unconscious and thankfully it didn’t result in serious injury.

Then he made his UFC debut against Taira where Taira took him down and controlled him for all 3 rounds, then he had the Daniel Lacerda fights where he dominated and finished him in round 1 with no problem.

So it’s hard to really know what his style is going to be in this fight. I think he’ll have the advantage on the ground as he has submission wins, but I don’t know how his striking is going to look against Van.

I think Van is overrated, and I was proven right in his last fight as he got knocked out against Charles Johnson. I just don’t see the upside as he struggled against Zhumagulov (not in the UFC anymore), he beat Borjas by decision (winless in the UFC), and he beat Bunes who is now 3-5 in his last 8.

I don’t see his striking as that great, I think he gets tired the later the fight goes on, and I’m not laying this price on him. In fact, I like Chairez to get the win here at plus money as I’ll keep fading Van.

Yazmin Jauregui -535 vs Ketlen Souza +400

This is a big gap in talent and upside. Jauregui is so much better with her movement and striking on the feet, and she should have no problem landing whatever she wants, kicks or punches.

She is coming off a great win against Sam Hughes, who is always a tough opponent where Souza barely beat Marnic Mann, and with all due respect…Mann is awful, and in the last round Mann was on top of Souza getting plenty of control time.

I really can’t see anything that Souza does better than Juaregui, this appears to be another fight at Noche to get a Mexican fighter an easy win. I don’t know if Juaregui gets the finish, but I wouldn’t be surprised, I’ll just use Jauregui ML as a parlay piece.

Ignacio Bahamondes -115 vs Manuel Torres -105

Get…ready…for…VIOLENCE. It’s a Manuel Torres fight so we’re taking the fight to not go the distance as his last 9 fights have ended in round 1.

Bahamondes is no stranger to big finishes as he KO’d Giagos with a nice head kick in his last fight so this fight should be a strikers delight, but don’t rule out a submission as both guys have submission wins on their resume.

Bahamondes had a humbling loss 2 fights ago to Klein where he was bullied around, but he came out against Giagos with really nice aggression and pressure.

That being said, Manuel Torres is an animal, and I just can’t bet against him. Torres is the pick, but the safest bet is playing an under of some kind as I don’t see this getting to the judges.

Irene Aldana -130 vs Norma Dumont +110

This fight should come down to the striking on the feet for Aldana vs the takedowns and control time of Dumont, and I like Aldana to stifle the takedowns to get the win.

Dumont’s recent wins aren’t too impressive to me as she beat De Randamie who is 39 years old, and was fighting for the first time since having a baby, and Dumont barely got the win as she used the takedowns, but really didn’t do anything with it.

Before that, same story…got takedowns against Chandler and did nothing with them. Aldana is way better than those opponents, and on the feet it’s no contest as Aldana can strike with power and volume, and I think she pieces up Dumont, and wins the damage battle.

I’m not sure Dumont can get Aldana down, and even if she does, she’s shown a lack of submission or ground and pound. At -130, I love Aldana.

Ronaldo Rodriguez -135 vs Ode Osbourne +114

I’ll be honest, I’m not betting anything on this fight. Neither guy is very good, but Osbourne is the more skilled fighter, but I have to question whether or not his heart is in it anymore.

He’s been finished in his last 2 fights by guys who just out muscled him on the ground, who just seemed to want it more.

Rodriguez is coming off an uninspring win against Denys Bondar, and Bondar isn’t that good, but he controlled the fight most of the time, landed strikes and got takedowns until he gassed late in the second round and Rodriguez got the submission win.

If Osbourne has anything left in the tank, he should win as he’s the better striker and better athlete, but his last 2 fights have looked like he didn’t care and if he comes out like that again, the hungrier fighter, Rodriguez, will win. There’s no way I’m betting money on this fight.

Daniel Zellhuber -230 vs Esteban Ribovics +190

I love Zellhuber in this one. In Ribovics’s last fight, we were hoping he would get a quick finish against Terrance McKinney, and he did because McKinney can’t block strikes, and now he gets a step up in competition where I think he’s overmatched.

He went to decision against Kirk, and although he won, I just don’t see the upside. His striking is good against guys who stand there and absorb them, but he doesn’t really set them up, and I don’t think his cardio is great once it gets to the second round.

Zellhuber has the height and reach advantage, and I think his striking has looked better and better each fight.

Last fight, he didn’t KO Francisco Prado, but he severely damaged his orbital area with his striking, and he was able to stay out of danger as well. I think Zellhuber keeps Ribovics at distance and puts on a striking clinic for 3 rounds en route to a win.

Diego Lopes -180 vs Brian Ortega +150

I have red flags on both those guys, so I won’t be betting this fight. Lopes had 3 straight first round finish wins, and then he had the strange situation where Ortega pulled out of their last fight and Dan Ige stepped up with literally just a few hours notice.

Lopes won, but it looked like a sparring session, and even though Lopes won, I wasn’t impressed with his lack of aggression, and Ige even knocked him down once.

It just wasn’t the aggressive performance I was expecting, and hoping for, but maybe we just chalk it up to a weird fight situation.

Lopes’s striking has gotten better, and he’s shown he’s dangerous with submissions and ground game, and he’ll certainly have the advantage with the striking on the feet.

Ortega beat Yair Rodriguez in his last fight, but Rodriguez was winning early and then got hurt and faded quickly so I don’t think it was a great win for Ortega.

He’s said he’s accepted the fact he won’t get a championship fight at this point in his career, and he’s just seemed a bit uninterested in his interviews.

Ortega is always a threat on the ground, but I’m willing to look past Lopes’s lackadaisical performance against Ige, and pick him to win with his striking on the feet. If Ortega can’t get this to the ground to work his submission attempts, it could be a rough fight for Brian.

Alexa Grasso -120 vs Valentina Shevchenko -110

Grasso all day for me in this fight. I look at these fighters that have been in the GOAT conversations, and when they start to fall off, they fall off really quick.

Adesanya is a perfect example of this IMHO, and Valentina has been at the top of this division for a while, but she’s 36 years old, and has said she wants to be a Mom, and she just hasn’t looked dynamic recently.

She won a split decision against Taila Santos, and Santos hasn’t exactly been incredible in the PFL since then, and she’s lost and had a draw against Grasso in her next 2 fights.

I don’t think her striking is what it once was, and Grasso already submitted her once before. I just can’t bet these great fighters once I see them start to fall off because it just seems to fall off really quick. Grasso for the win.

UFC 306 Main Event: Sean O’Malley -115 vs Merab Dvalishvili -105

This fight is simple. The striking of O’Malley vs the chain wrestling and takedowns of Merab. Which ever fighter can implement their will and control the style of the fight will win.

Merab is going to push forward, clinch and try and get O’Malley down, and he’ll do it from the beginning to the end of the fight.

O’Malley’s height is going to be interesting because his long arms and legs should do damage with striking as Merab rushes in, but his height may make it easier for Merag to get his arms around him and control him and take him down.

One problem that Merab has is that he just doesn’t do a ton of damage. His only finish in the UFC is knocking out Marlon Moraes who had the glassiest chin I’ve ever seen at the time, and the crowd isn’t going to like it if Merab is just holding O’Malley the entire fight, and they’ll let it be known they want to see striking.

The judges reward striking, which favors O’Malley, so I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Malley wins a round or 2 with the more dynamic strikes, but with Merab having a lot of control time.

Instead of picking the winner, I like this fight to go the distance. I just don’t think O’Malley catches Merab with the KO shot, and Merab isn’t finishing O’Malley. I’ll bet this fight to go to the judges, I don’t care who wins.

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