UFC 307: Pereira vs Rountree Jr. Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 5

UFC 307 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 307 and picks for October 5th with the main event headlined by Alex Pereira vs Khalil Roundtree Jr. in a light heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.

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Alex Pereira vs Khalil Roundtree Jr.: UFC 307 Main Event

Saturday, October 5	UFC 307 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alex Pereira -520 vs Khalil Roundtree Jr. +390
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -130 / Under +100)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT
TV:	PPV

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UFC 307 Predictions

Tim Means -205 vs Court McGee +160

This fight pretty much comes down to who has more left in the tank as both guys are 39+ years old, and on losing streaks.

Means is coming off a KO loss against Medic in April, and it’s only his second KO loss in the UFC after all these years.

He’s been submitted in the past, but I’m not sure McGee is submitting anyone at this stage, but the KO against Medic was a bad look as one uppercut floored him and he ate a big follow up shot after that, and you have to wonder if his chin is weak at this point.

McGee has lost three in a row, and after going his entire career without getting KO’d, he got knocked out in back to back fights against Wells and Brown.

This is an article about betting UFC, so my advice is to not bet this fight as neither guy has upside, and nothing would surprised me in this fight. Save your money and move on.

Tecia Pennington -175 vs Carla Esparza +145

This checks a couple of boxes for me as an automatic fade of Carla Esparza. This is a Fade The Baby Theory and Retirement Theory for her as she had her first kid a year ago, and she’s coming back for one last fight as this will be her final fight.

It’s interesting, because we faded Pennington in her last fight as she was coming back after having her first baby, and even though we cashed against Tabatha Ricci, Pennington looked great.

Her cardio was on point, striking was good, and in round three she didn’t show signs of slowing down too much, and she landed over 100 strikes in the fight.

The last time we saw Esparza was two years ago when she lost the title to Zhang, and I know Zhang is an all-time great fighter, but Esparza couldn’t get anything going on offense.

She had one moment in the first where she got on top of Zhang for a bit, but Zhang landed heavy shots, and reversed the position and continued to do heavy damage with her striking.

Esparza looked defeated after some striking exchanges, and was quickly finished in the second round. I can’t see that Esparza is going to have a lot in the tank in this one, It’s Pennington all day for me.

Ryan Spann -310 vs Ovince Saint Preux +250

I don’t know what we did as UFC fans to deserve this fight, but please don’t bet any of your money on it. OSP is 41 years old, and is coming off a shocking win against Kennedy Nzechukwu where Kennedy took him for granted, didn’t put him away and ended up rightfully losing the fight by split decision.

Make no mistake, OSP looked old and terrible, but he did have enough gas in the tank to go three rounds. I have no idea what happened to Ryan Spann.

He beat Reyes late in 2022, and he told all of us that he was training and taking his fighting career serious, and now he’s lost three in a row including losing a decision to old-man Anthony Smith, and then getting knocked out by Guskov who isn’t that good.

That being said, he’s more athletic, quicker and his strikes are more powerful. He’s going to look really fast on the feet compared to OSP, and he should piece him up as OSP won’t have much power to scare him. Spann should win, but there’s no way you can lay -310 on Ryan Spann.

Cesar Almeida -380 vs Ihor Potieria +300

We’ve made a lot of money fading Potieria, and I think we can do it again here. Potieria’s two wins in the UFC are against a retiring Rua, and a debutant from Russia who looked awful.

He’s been finished in all four of his losses as his gas tank lasts for about a round, and then it vanishes. He has good power on the feet for the first few minutes, and then his KO power is gone, and he’s ripe to get finished.

Almeida is a kickboxer who has impressed since his fight on Contender Series where he pulled the big upset, and he followed that up with a KO win in his debut, and split decision loss to Kopylov where he was dominated in round one, but really showed heart in skill to almost get the win.

All Almeida has to do is not get knocked out in the first round, and he should cruise to decision win or get the KO when Potieria gets tired.

Alexander Hernandez -215 vs Austin Hubbard +170

I’ll take this fight to go the distance, I don’t care who wins. Both guys have pretty big holes in their game, and I think that helps us as these guys aren’t finishers.

Hubbard has eight fights in a row without finishing anyone, and Hernandez has gone five fights in a row without a finish.

Both guys don’t have a lot of power, and with the new gloves, it’s going to take a lot to get a KO, and these guys aren’t submission specialists so I don’t see where the finish comes from.

Hernandez absorbs a lot of damage in his fights, but his last two losses were decisions, and Hubbard has never been knocked out. Take the overs in this one.

Iasmin Lucindo -166 vs Marina Rodriguez +140

The 22 year old Lucindo is the future, and 37 year old Rodriguez is trying to stay at the top of heer game, but she’s lost three out of four, and her win was against Waterson Gomez who has lost five in a row so she lost to the top fighters, and Lucindo is looking like a top fighter.

Lucindo’s striking really good as she did a lot of damage to Kowalkiewicz, who is a pretty good fighter, but was completely outclassed in this matchup.

My only concern is that Rodriguez is by far the best fighter Lucindo has faced, and she is still in her early 20’s and Rodriguez can take advantage of any mistakes that Lucindo makes.

She lost to Andrade in her last fight, but it was a split decision and she had some good moments on the feet, and she’ll certainly land her fair share of shots, but I don’t know if the damage will be there.

In the end, I’m a believer in Lucindo’s talent, and her striking is so impressive right now, I think she’ll damage up Rodriguez quite a bit on the feet, and unless Rodriguez somehow gets this on the ground, I don’t see her having enough success to win. Lucindo is the play.

Joaquin Buckley -205 vs Stephen Thompson +170

Buckley has been on a tear since moving weight divisions, and if he can get his takedown game working in this fight, he should continue his streak, but that’s easier said than done.

He had some nice takedowns en route to a win over Ruziboev in his last fight, but Thompson stands with that karate stance at distance, which makes it really hard to engage.

We know that Thompson will strike at distance and try and win by decision, and Buckley will be rushing in to close the distance and make this a violent fight in close quarters.

Thompson’s last three losses are against Shavkat, Belal, and Gilbert Burns, all title contenders or title holders so he’s only lost to the best.

If we’re looking for a fight that could get a bit crazy, I think one could be it. If Buckley can’t get inside, Thompson is going to hit him at long distance with those kicks and jabs, and I could see this going to decision and being very close.

This is a fight I have circled to bury people’s parlays, I wouldn’t bet Buckley here, and if you’re betting Thompson, you might as well play him to win by decision as he hasn’t finished anyone in eight years.

Kevin Holland -166 vs Roman Dolidze +140

No chance I’m laying -166 on Kevin Holland here. Holland is a tough guy to handicap as he’s looked great at times, and then horrible at times.

He’s won ITD in 9 out of his last 10 wins, and he clearly wants to get in a situation where he can get a submission, but his wrestling isn’t great, and I don’t see him getting takedowns against Dolidze.

I think he’ll have to keep this on the feet and strike at range, move around and avoid the clinches of Dolidze.

Dolidze’s last three fights have really been boring as there are long stretches of no action so this will be a clash of styles, and whoever controls the pace and where the fight takes place will win.

This fight is going to be a pass for me for betting, but I would bet Dolidze at +140 way before I would bet Holland.

This could be a good live betting opportunity as we know early in Kevin Holland fights if he’s dialed in or not, but I won’t be betting anything before the fight.

Kayla Harrison -750 vs Ketlen Vieira +525

I was wondering how Harrison would look in her UFC debut as I didn’t think she looked great to end her PFL career, but she looked better than she’s ever looked as she just mauled Holy Holm, and I expect her to do the same here to Vieira who hasn’t looked amazing, despite here 3-1 record in her last four fights.

Her last five wins have all been by decision, and in her last fight against Pianzad, she was able to get on top of Kianzad and hold her down, but she did no damage, and even in the third round Kianzad was able to reverse position and get on top.

That lack of skill on the ground game is a death sentence against Harrison, look for Kayla to get this to the ground and put on another clinic in route to a win. I don’t know if Harrison gets the finish like she did against Holm, but this should be a dominating performance.

Mario Bautista -148 vs Jose Aldo +124

Are you ready to fade Jose Aldo? Cause I’m not. Aldo still has it as he showed in his last fight against Jonathan Martinez.

Aldo took some time away from UFC to do some boxing matches, but he realized there was more money in the UFC, and he looked like he hadn’t missed a step.

His striking was great, and it was an incredible veteran performance where he defended everything Martinez wanted to do, I wouldn’t be surprised if he did the same thing here.

Bautista has shown really good improvement over his last few fights, and his win against Simon was impressive, but he absorbs a lot of damage still, and Aldo’s defense is so good, I don’t think Bautista will be able to tee off on him they way he did on Simon.

This is a great price on Aldo to break the winning streak of Bautista, and to get even better value you can take him to win by decision as he doesn’t seem to be looking for the finish as his last 4 wins are by decision.

Raquel Pennington -170 vs Juliana Pena +142

Pennington all day for me in this one. Pena “beat” Nunes in the shadiest fight I’ve seen in the UFC, and then in the rematch got her brakes beaten off for the entire fight.

Take out that Nunes “win”, and her last wins are against Sara McMann who is in Bellator now, Nico Montano who isn’t fighting anymore, and Cat Zingano who is getting KO’s over in Bellator these days.

Since the Nunes fights, she’s seemed more interested in trying to play the heel and getting involved in drama rather than getting in the octagon to fight.

Pennington showed her classic never-give-up style of fighting in her last fight against Silva where she was losing early, but poured it on the longer the fight went with takedowns, striking and solid cardio.

I just don’t know what we’re getting from Pena at this point, but I do know what I’m getting from Pennington and if she performs like she did against Silva, I think she can dominate Pena based on what Pena looked like against Nunes. Pennington is a pretty easy play for me.

UFC 307 Main Event: Alex Pereira -520 vs Khalil Roundtree Jr. +390

No real analysis is needed. Pereira is the most terrifying man in the sport right now, and I’m not betting against him anytime soon.

Rountree’s only hope is that Pereira has a horrible weight cut and is slow enough to not get out of the way of his strikes, but if Pereira shows up in great shape it’s only a matter of time before he lands a KO shot and puts Rountree to sleep.

Pereira’s leg kicks are dynamite and it will only take a few to slow down Rountree whose strength of competition is a joke compared to Pereira.

Roundtree’s last two fights are against Anthony Smith and Chris Daukus, meanwhile, Pereira is knocking out current and former Champions. Pereira by KO is the square play, but I don’t see how else to play this one.

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