UFC 309: Jones vs Miocic Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 16

UFC 309 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 309 and picks for November 15th with the main event headlined by Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic in a heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.

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Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic: UFC 309 Main Event

Saturday, November 15	UFC 309 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jon Jones -700 vs Stipe Miocic +500
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over +115 / Under -145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Madison Square Garden in New York, NY
TV:	PPV

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UFC 309 Predictions

Veronica Hardy -162 vs Eduarda Moura +136 

Moura is huge for this division, and she’s been able to bully people around until last fight  when Denise Gomes was able to keep up with her and win the split decision.

I think Hardy is going to have a solid game plan going into this fight as her camp and team  have done a great job getting her ready as she’s won three straight fights.

She can wrestle, and her striking is probably going to be better than Mourda. I also think she’s going to have better cardio as her last three wins have been decision wins. It’s a pretty  fair price on Hardy, I’ll take her to win.

Oban Elliott -225 vs Bassil Hafez +185 

Hafez beat Mickey Gall last fight, but it was as uninspiring as it could get as Hafez got  piece up by Gall on the feet, and that’s a terrible look.

He can wrestle some, but it  doesn’t look like he’s amazing at it, and he’s not a guy I want to bet on. I didn’t think Oban Elliott was very good coming off of Contender Series, but give him credit as he’s  won two straight, and he’s improved immensely in all areas.

His toughness is never in doubt, and he showed decent striking and takedown defense against Parsons in his last fight.

I think he’s just going to have a bit too much for Hafez, but I do think this fight  goes the distance. Neither guy has been fighting for finishes in their last couple fights.

Mickey Gall -122 vs Ramiz Brahimaj +102 

Both these guys are not good, and the loser is getting cut. I’ll lean Gall in this one as he  actually improved his striking against Hafez, but his striking is so bad that he still got beat up on the feet.

Brahimaj was lifeless when he lost to Gorimbo as he got pushed up  against the cage the majority of the fight, and he just showed no signs of life.

That was his first fight in two years, and I just wonder if he cares that much. Gall at least showed effort, and a good fighting spirit in his last fight so I’ll lean him to win with his grappling and submission attempts, but it’s best to not bet on this fight.

Jhonata Diniz -125 vs Marcin Tybura +105 

Diniz is ready to be beat as his two wins in the UFC are so suspect. He KO’d Austen Lane, but everyone KO’s Austen Lane.

Then he beat Karl Willians, who is a decorated wrestler, but was told not to wrestle because it’s boring so he tried to strike with Diniz, and Diniz should have destroyed him, but the fight was close, and late in the third,  Williams wrestled and took him down easily.

Tybura isn’t great, but he’s a veteran who  can strike with Diniz, and his weakness is being taken down, and Diniz isn’t doing that. Tybura is the pick as I’m fading Diniz his next couple fights. His striking isn’t impressive, his cardio is ok, and he’s ripe to be beat.

Damon Jackson -135 vs Jim Miller +114 

Both of these guys are past their prime so we have to decide who has more left. Jim Miller is coming off a brutal beating against Bobby Green, but Jackson isn’t going to  strike like Green.

He’s going to clinch and wrestle, and while Miller can do that as well, I think Jackson has more energy and can just do it for longer.

I expect Miller to try and strike early on, but his cardio will fall off faster than Jackson who lost to Chepe Meriscal  in his last fight, but Jackson was still winning some moments on the ground in the third.  This could turn into a very boring fight when these guys get tired, but Jackson is the pick.

Eryk Anders -142 vs Chris Weidman +120 

If Weidman is allowed to eye poke the shit out of Anders like he was allowed to do  against Silva in his last fight, he has a chance to win this fight.

However, Silva has proven to be a bum UFC fighter,and while Anders isn’t great, he’s going to be able to  wrestle with Weidman, and I just don’t believe Weidman still has enough left to win two straight.

His body is beat up, he doesn’t have a lot of power left, and Anders lack of  striking defense isn’t going to be as much of a liability here.

Anders should have the slightly better strikes, and the better ground game. If you bet on Anders, have thick skin because he’ll have moments in the fight where he’ll look terrible, but he’ll have enough good moments to get the win.

Marcus McGhee -135 vs Jonathan Martinez +114 

Martinez all day in this one. McGhee has beaten three terrible UFC fighters in his  career, and while they’re all by KO, I don’t find his weapons too difficult to figure out and defend.

His striking has power, and he’s shown he can wrestle, but Martinez is a massive step up in competition. Martinez is going to unleash his kicks to McGhee on  the legs, and body, and McGhee doesn’t have a long reach so Martinez is going to be able to strike at range and once he gets the kicks going, it’s going to slow down  McGhees takedowns.

Martinez is 6-1 in his last seven UFC fights, and his loss is to Jose Aldo, the grandmaster at defending leg kicks, and that fight was in Aldo’s home town so it was a brutal spot for Martinez.

McGhee’s very overvalued here, and Martinez is coming off a rare loss. Martinez at plus money is a no-brainer.

Mauricio Ruffy -750 vs James Llontop +525 

Not a lot of analysis needed here. Ruffy is a killer, and should smoke Llontop who I  have been very happy to fade in the UFC as I’m not high on him at all.

He almost beat Borshchev as he lost by a split decision, but he poked Borshchev bad in the first round,  and he still couldn’t take advantage of a damaged fighter.

His only path to victory here is an early flash knockout or somehow wrestle Ruffy for three rounds to stay away from his power, but Ruffy has great length, and he knows how to use his long jab and kicks to  dictate pace.

Ruffy is from my favorite gym right now, The Fighting Nerds, and they have the best game planning in the business right now. Llontop has been a fade since  Contender Series, and now he faces a brutal knockout fighter. Ruffy is the play.

Karine Silva -278 v Viviane Araujo +225 

One fighter is on her way up, one is on her way down, and I want the fighter who’s on  her way up.

Silova is undefeated in the UFC, and while her opponents haven’t been great, she’s been dominant, and she’s coming off a nice performance against Lipski where she showed off her striking, and ground game. Bottom line is Araujo is 37, and has 2 wins in her last 6, and they aren’t to great opponents.

Every opponent that ca  push the pace, and force her to get a little tired has won. She just doesn’t have that power anymore, and she has no submission wins in the UFC so Silva will have the massive advantage there. Silva is a great parlay piece.

Bo Nickal -1000 vs Paul Craig +650 

There’s no way to bet this fight at this price as Paul Craig is a sacrificial lamb in this  matchup. Nickal is younger, more athletic, and his speed is going to be light years better.

The interesting thing is that the last Bo Nickal fight went over 1.5 rounds, and I predicted that would happen wondering if Nickal and his team want cage time with UFC veterans because his previous fights have been so quick.

It could happen again here if Nickal wants to wrestle for a bit against Craig, but I won’t bet it. Nickal by early finish.

Charles Oliviera -270 vs MIchael Chandler +220 

Charles Oliviera by finish for me in this one, but we’ll just take the money line in parlays.  Chandler fights like a tornado with incredible pace and bursts of energy and strikes, but  at 38 he’s absorbed a ton of damage, and he’s not the same guy he was years ago. 

Chandler’s 1-3 in his last 4 with his win being against Ferguson who has 8 straight  losses. Chandler will make a mistake, and Oliviera will take advantage, get him on the ground and win by submission or ground and pound.

Oliviera still has a few great fights left in him, and I’m not sure Chandler does. Oliviera won’t have to move towards Chandler, he’ll just have to counter when Chandler flies in, and I think he’ll make short  work of Chandler.

UFC 309 Main Event: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic

This fight is a joke. Stipe is ancient, he’s beyond injured, he hasn’t fought in 3.5 years, and Jon Jones has been ducking Tom Aspinall and making this out to be some huge massive fight.

Even with Jones being 37 years old, Jones will be faster, and the better wrestler, and he’s going to blow through Stipe, it’s Jones inside the distance.

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