UFC 310: Pantoja vs Asakura Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds December 7

UFC 310 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 310 picks and predictions for December 7th with the main event headlined by Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Sakura in a flyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Sakura: UFC 310 Main Event

Saturday, December 7	UFC 310 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alexandre Pantoja -270 vs Kai Sakura +220
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -125 / Under -105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

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UFC 310 Predictions

Kennedy Nzechukwu -520 vs Lukasz Brzeski +350 

This is a fight featuring 2 fighters you don’t want to bet on as Nzechukwu is coming off a win because his opponent was old and actually hurt himself during the fight  introductions, and before that he lost to a guy who was supposed to retire.

His fight IQ  is bad, and he can’t deal with adversity. Brzeski has awful cardio, and will get cut if he  loses this fight as he’s 1-4 in the UFC.

Brezski will probably try and wrestle, but he  won’t have the stamina. Kennedy will tire him out, and probably win, but the price is too high.

Chase Hooper -1100 vs Clay Guida +650 

Fade the old fighter. Another price that is crazy, but Hooper should roll here. Guida is  42 years old and has looked awful in his last couple fights, and he just can’t wrestle like he used to.

I don’t know if he really can wrestle well anymore has he had 2 takedowns  against Joaquim Silva (one of which he walked into a choke and ended up on his back), but he got taken down twice as well, and against Rafa Garcia he had 0 takedowns and got hit 141 times on the feet.

Hooper has looked great since moving up weight divisions  as his power has improved, and he always has his submission game.

For what it’s worth, Hooper submitted Guida Hooper quickly in a grappling match in 2022 so Hooper  shouldn’t be worried about this fight going to the ground. Guida’s striking is low-level, and Hooper has great cardio so I’m struggling to see any path to victory for Guida. 

Could he land one big shot to get the KO? His last KO win was 7 years ago, and the  only other one I can find is in 2008.

Hooper’s striking has gotten so much better  recently, and he showed it in his last fight as he dropped Borshchev early in round one, and ground and pounded him for the rest of the round, then got the takedown to start round 2 and wrapped up the submission win in dominant fashion.

So if Guida is not  winning the striking battle, and his wrestling won’t work as it hasn’t in his last 2 fights, I don’t see how the 42 year old gets it done. It’s a big number, but it may feel undervalued after the fight is over.

Max Griffin -135 vs Michael Chiesa +115 

Fade The Old Fighter Theory. Chiesa looked all but done after losing 3 straight and  looking awful against Holland, but he got a gift by getting a fight against Tony Ferguson who he easily submitted.

I don’t think that’s a sign of things to come though. He’ll need  to get Griffin on the ground and try and get a submission because I really think Griffin is going to be much better on the feet with the striking.

Griffin isn’t a great striker, but he just beat Jeremiah Wells and had some good moments on the feet, and his takedown defense just needs to hold up for a round, and Chiesa’s gas tank will drain quick. 

Chiesa is a full time announcer, I don’t think he has much left in the tank. Griffin is the pick.

Josh Van -162 vs Cody Durden +136 

I’m not a big Josh Van as I think he’s overrated, and even though he beat Chairez in his  last fight, he looked bad to start the fight. His lead leg got chewed up, and he got 

bloodied in round 1, but he showed great toughness in round 2 by landing a ton of  strikes, and getting a big takedown and pulling away when Chairez gassed. It’s his lack of striking defense that gives him trouble, but is Cody Durden the guy to exploit that? 

He could, but he swings wild, and he leaves himself open as well, and if this is a brawl, I like Van to have more power and accuracy, but you’ll be nervous when Durden lands shots on Van. Van is the pick, but I won’t be betting.

Eryk Anders -120 vs Chris Weidman +100 

I think you’re crazy if you bet this fight. Weidman is coming off a win against Bruno  Silva where we poked him in the eyes multiple times, and he’s sustained so much damage to his body, I don’t think he has much upside.

However, Anders has horrible  striking defense, questionable cardio, and his only recent wins are against guys cut from  the UFC.

Anders should be more athletic, but he’s just not that good. I would lean him to win as I just can’t believe Chris Weidman is going to win another fight at age 40. 

Anders is the play as I think he can land more strikes, and win more clinch situations on  the feet, but it will be sweaty.

Eryk Anders -142 vs Chris Weidman +120 

If Weidman is allowed to eye poke the shit out of Anders like he was allowed to do  against Silva in his last fight, he has a chance to win this fight.

However, Silva has proven to be a bum UFC fighter,and while Anders isn’t great, he’s going to be able to  wrestle with Weidman, and I just don’t believe Weidman still has enough left to win two straight.

His body is beat up, he doesn’t have a lot of power left, and Anders lack of  striking defense isn’t going to be as much of a liability here.

Anders should have the slightly better strikes, and the better ground game. If you bet on Anders, have thick skin because he’ll have moments in the fight where he’ll look terrible, but he’ll have enough good moments to get the win.

Bryan Battle -205 vs Randy Brown +170 

I’m surprised Battle is this big of a favorite so I’ll take Brown at +170. I’ve made a lot of money betting on Bryan Battle since he came to the UFC, and his evolution has been fun to watch, but his striking defense has not improved, and it’s bad.

He leaves his  hands apart and I see the jabs and front kicks of Brown landing over and over again. 

Brown can get lazy in his fights, and he can get taken down and held down, but he showed good resilience last fight when Zaleski took him down and held him for a couple of minutes before Brown reversed it.

Battle probably has a little bit more dog in him, but the length of the jabs and kicks from Brown I think will damage up Battle over 3 rounds. Brown is a good underdog.

Movsar Evloev -278 vs Aljamain Sterling +225 

This fight is probably Dana White’s worst nightmare as both guys are grapplers, and  Sterling in particular can have long periods of time where he takes an opponent down, holds them there, and does nothing with it, but trying to do that against Evloev isn’t going to be easy.

Sometimes we see these grappler vs grappler fights turn into striking on the feet, and Evloev is going to have the massive striking advantage.

It’s a huge  price, but Evloev can fend off what Sterling does well on offense, and I’m not sure  Sterling can avoid Evloev’s striking and submission attempts. It’s a steep price, but I think Evloev wins.

Themba Gorimbo -175 vs Vicente Luque +145 

Gorimbo is on a nice 4 fight win streak, but the opponents have been awful, and I’m not laying this price on him against a veteran like Luque.

Gorimbo isn’t a great striker so Luque won’t be worried about that, but Gorimbo likes to wrestle, and take guys down. His cardio is solid, but he doesn’t really know how to work submissions, and he’s not 

great at control position so I think Luque will actually be able to wrestle Gorimbo and  have success there. He’s fought 5-round fights before so I would hope his cardio would be ok here, but I do worry that he’s low volume on the feet, and isn’t doing much damage with his strikes these days.

It’s a risky underdog to take, but Gorimbo has  holes in his game, I certainly won’t lay -175 on him so Luque is the pick.

Dominick Reyes -340 vs Anthony Smith +270 

Fade the old fighter. We’ll be fading Anthony Smith for sure as we’ve had a lot of success fading the old fighters, and 36 year old Anthony Smith looked really old in his  last fight.

He’s 2-5 in his last 7 fights with his wins being a close split decision win, and  then a submission win over Vitor Petrino who has no submission defense, and even  then Smith was losing til he wrapped up the sub.

Smith is low volume, he doesn’t have  much power, and his movement is really slow these days.

In his last fight we was out of breath before the end of the first round, and his strength is supposed to be wrestling, but Dolidze (who took the fight on short notice) controlled Anthony Smith on the ground  for most of the second round Reyes returned after a year and a half, and got an impressive first round KO against Dustin Jacoby who I think would beat Anthony Smith so this is an easy pick for me.

Reyes’s strikes are way faster than Smith’s, and the  worry with Reyes is his chin, but Smith hasn’t shown power in a while as his last KO win is in 2018. It’s a curious fight for Smith to take right before the end of the year, and he’s a full time commentator, this feels like him getting paychecks for the last year or so to fill  fights for the UFC, but I don’t see any upside for him.

All Reyes has to do is not get finished early, and he should win the striking battle on the feet comfortably.

Nate Landwehr -142 vs Dooho Choi +120 

This fight should be a brawl as both guys get into firefights, but I trust Landwehr in these fights. Choi gets hit quite a bit, and even though he’s coming off a KO win against Algeo, Choi was eating big shots, and he got taken down and controlled in the first  round, and Landwehr can strike and wrestle for all 3 rounds.

Landwehr used to be way too wreckless, but he fights now with more controlled aggression and he’s been much  better at not putting himself into bad positions, and if Choi does land some good strikes,  Landwehr can wrestle and control Choi on the ground.

I would expect both guys to  throw strikes early, and for Landwehr to have success with how hittable Choi is. This is a pretty fair price, Landwehr should win a fun and wild fight.

Bryce Mitchell -625 vs Kron Gracie +400 

I can’t believe we have another Kron Gracie fight in the UFC. He can’t strike, he’s a  grappler and submission fighter, but I don’t think his wrestling is that good.

Mitchell is all  wrestling, and all he has to do is not let Gracie get some weird armbar or choke when  they’re on the ground, and he should dominate.

Gracie wants it to be on the ground, and Mitchell should waste no time getting it there. Mitchell can be a bonehead during the fights so he could give Gracie an opening, but we haven’t seen him do anything  special in his last 2 fights (both losses) so the pick will be Mitchell, but the price will keep me from betting this.

Ciryl Gane -310 vs Alexander Volkov +250 

The speed of Gane on the feet is just too much for Volkov as we saw in their first fight a  few years ago, and I believe Gane has gotten better.

Gane had the embarrassing loss to Jon Jones, and he’s said he just didn’t show up that night, and that might have been  

a big moment for his career. In his next fight we saw his improved wrestling by him stuffing the takedowns from Spivac, and instead of point fighting, he poured it on Spivac  and got the impressive finish.

He’s said that this training has been insane as they’ve  brought in 6’7” kickboxers to train with, and they’re training him that he has to be even  more aggressive and that he needs to finish instead of decision in the rematch.

Volkov is on a nice run winning 4 in row, but I don’t think he has the upside to get the better of Gane. His game plan last fight was brilliant against Pavlovich as he just stayed away  from the big power, and struck from distance, but Pavlovich is much slower and he can’t  close the distance.

Volkov isn’t a wrestler so Gane shouldn’t have to worry about that threat, and Gane has a great chin as he’s never been knocked out so Volkov is either  going to have to land one crazy strike to get Gane out of there, or somehow be quicker on the feet and that doesn’t look like that will happen.

Listening to Gane talk about his training, and his mindset after the Jon Jones fight leads me to believe we might see a new and more fierce fighter than we’ve seen in the past, and that’s bad news for Volkov  who is 36, has a lot of mileage on him, and has lost to Aspinall and Gane, the 2 best fighters he’s faced in the last few years.

Shavkat Rakhmonov -380 vs Ian Garry +300 

I’ve been making money betting on Garry, but I think this is where it comes to an end. Shavkat is too good in the grappling and submission game as he’s 18-0 with all finishes, and 5 submissions in 6 UFC fights and a KO in the other.

His striking is good enough  that opponents have to be cautious with it, and as soon as they start to worry about  striking, he shoots in and gets control of them, and then it’s over.

Garry hasn’t been  super impressive in his last couple fights as he’s been point fighting, and trying to strike  from distance, and clinch isn’t going to work here.

Garry is going to have to get really  aggressive and go for some big strikes early, or somehow stuff Shavkat’s wrestling, but  that’s not his game. It’s a brutal matchup for him, I give him little chance of winning. Shavkat is a great parlay piece.

UFC 310 Main Event: Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura

I honestly don’t know what to make of this fight. There’s nobody left in the division for  Pantoja to fight so they bring in Asakura from RIZIN, and there’s a chance that Pantoja  schools this guy.

Asakura last fought Juan Archuleta, who is a relic from Bellator, and before that he beat Yuki Motoya who’s 35 and who hasn’t beaten anyone that’s  Championship caliber, and before that he lost. So this guy is going to come in and beat  Pantoja?

My worry is that Pantoja has lot of wear and tear on his body, he’s 34 and he didn’t look that great against Steve Erceg.

Asakura has good striking, but if Pantoja  gets him down, and gets comfortable on the ground, he can grind out rounds, and  possibly get the submission. Pantoja has showed a little bit of cardio issues in his last couple fights, but it hasn’t cost him in those so I can’t assume it will cost him here. 

Maybe Asakura gets his striking going early, and can tire out Pantoja, but that’s a big leap to make. I won’t bet on it because I’m still a bit confused by this fight, but don’t be surprised if Pantaja rolls him.

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