close icon
popup icon
Free Picks
Discounts &
Get $15 Free
All News / MMA

UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds January 18

Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan UFC 311

UFC 311 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 311 picks and predictions for December 7th with the main event headlined by Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan in a Lightweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, CA.

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.

WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long! Also, at WagerTalk you can always find free NFL picks every day.

Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan: UFC 311 Main Event

Saturday, January 18UFC 311 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:Islam Makhachev -380 vs Arman Tsarukyan +280
Rounds:4.5 Rounds (Over -185 / Under +145)
Fight Time:Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, CA
TV:PPV

Before You Read UFC 311 Predictions… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including UFC 311 & More

UFC 311 Predictions

Bogdon Guskov vs Billy Elekana 

Guskov looked terrible and lost in his UFC debut, but credit him for ripping off two straight wins with his striking, and I think this is #3 in a row for him.

Elekena is stepping  up on short notice, but I don’t think he’s that good. His notable win is a split decision against Chuck Campbell in PFL, and from what Iv’e seen he doesn’t throw enough volume of strikes to scare Guskov, and he doesn’t have a ground game to take  advantage of Guskov’s weakness.

Look for Guskov to be the more powerful and active striker and get the win here.

Tagier Ulanbekov -325 vs Clayton Carpenter +260 

I like Carpenter, but I feel like this is just going to be a bit too much for him in the  wrestling and grappling.

He’s a solid wrestler, and is coming off a nice submission win, but Ulanbekov’s ground game is more complex, and dominant.

He’s going to be quicker, more flexible, and the experience is going to be the difference maker.  Carpenter should try and make this a three-round striking fight, but eventually  Ulanbekov will get this on the ground and I think he gets the submission win.

Grant Dawson -360 vs Diego Ferreira +285 

This is my favorite parlay piece on the card. Dawson’s only loss in the UFC was when  Bobby Green sparked him 30 seconds into the fight.

Other than that, he gets the  wrestling and takedowns and dominates on the ground. Once he gets the body triangle  or top position, the round is pretty much over and I don’t think Ferreira is going to be able to defend those positions.

Ferreira will have to get his striking going from the beginning, but I think it will only be a matter of time before Dawson gets his hands on  Ferreira and drags him into deep waters.

Ferreira is 39 years old and is coming off two wins, but he beat Rebecki when Rebecki gassed himself trying to be a kickboxer, and  gifted the fight to Ferreira, and Dawson won’t do that.

He KO’d Michael Johnson before  that, but he’s struggled with wrestlers in the past as Gamrot took him down and injurred  him to where he had to tap, and Gellespie took him down and finished him on the  ground as well.

I love that Dawson sticks to the gameplan, and even though some people don’t like the non-stop wrestling, he’s said that’s how he wins, and he isn’t  changing. I don’t see the 39 year old Ferreira staying on his feet in this fight for very long. Dawson should roll here.

Bernardo Sopaj -325 vs Ricky Turcios +260 

Sopaj probably wins, but -325 is way too high for me. Sopaj made his UFC debut on  short notice against Oliveira and got knocked out in one of the most violent knee I’ve ever seen.

That was last March so he’s healed, but that’s the kind of KO that changes a  fighter. He has good striking, and he showed good cardio in that fight, and Turcios is  pretty bad so I expect him to be able to land strikes, and possibly work a takedown or two in the mix like he did against Oliveira.

Turcios just doesn’t do anything great as his striking isn’t sharp, and his grappling and wrestling aren’t high-level…he just doesn’t 

have any upside. Both guys have question marks, I’ll pick Sopaj to win, but I won’t be  betting this fight.

Payton Talbott -1100 vs Raoni Barcelos +700 

Talbott is the young star, and Barcelos is 37 with a lot of miles on his body, but the cagy  veteran still has gas left in the tank as he got the submission win against Quinonez in his last fight.

I know Talbott has all the hype, and for good reason as he’s finished all  three of his UFC opponents, but Aguirre, Saaiman, and Ghemmouri are awful, and don’t  be surprised if Barcelos has some tricks up his sleeve for Talbott.

Barcelos has the ability to get takedowns, his footwork and movement still look good, and I really think  he’s going to give Talbott some problems. Can he win? I’m not sure, but there’s no chance I put Talbott in parlays at this price. Dog or nothing in this fight for me.

Zach Reese -285 vs Sedriques Dumas +230 

I’ve been impressed with Reese in his career despite the holes in his game. He has big  time finishing power and submissions, and his biggest weakness is honestly his lack of  cage time as only one fight has gone out of the first round.

His last fight against Medina  went the distance, and I thought it was great for him to go 15 minutes as he beat the  hell out of Medina for 15 minutes, but you could see his cardio is a bit of an issue.

He was active in the 3rd round, but he definitely lost some steam off his strikes, and he was getting hit a bit too much for my liking, but he was still getting takedowns so credit to him.

Somehow, Dumas has gone the distance against Tiuliulin, Azaitar, and Brundage which is crazy because all those guys are under machines.

It goes to show that Dumas has good cardio, good defense, but he doesn’t have finishing power or submissions at  this level, and I think we see more of that. He will try to clinch and keep close to Reese  to avoid Reese’s big shots, but I don’t think it’s going to be enough to get the win. 

Reese will have the bigger moments, and I think Reese’s takedowns are better so Dumas is going to have to surprise Reese with something new. I like Reese to get the job done.

Karol Rosa -185 vs Ailin Perez +145 

Perez has a simple game plan, and that’s get the fight to the ground, work the ground  and pound, and win the first two rounds and hang on for the third. Perez has really good takedowns, and she can hold position, but her striking on the feet is bad and her cardio is a problem in the third.

This is an interesting matchup as Rosa will have the  advantage on the feet as her punches and kicks are decent, and if she stuffs the takedowns she’ll cruise.

I just don’t think Rosa is that good, and I expect Perez to be able to get the early takedowns so I’ll take her as the dog in his spot.

Jailton Almeida -395 vs Serghei Spivac +310 

I thought the books would give Spivac a bit more respect here after his easy win against Tybura, but they expect what I expect and that’s for Almeida to be the better wrestler here.

Spivac beat Tybura with an arm bar, but Tybura was on top of him and controlling position, and I see Almeida being able to do the same thing.

They both want to fight on  the ground, but I think Almeida is going to be a bit quicker and more athletic with the  wrestling, and Spivac has shown cardio issues if he doesn’t get the early finish.

He has pretty bad striking defense so Almeida might find success striking on the feet as well. I just think this is a nightmare matchup for Spivac where his opponent is a little better at what Spivac does best, and it would take something really surprising for him to win  here. Almeida is the play.

Rinya Nakamura -470 vs Muin Gafurov +360 

Gafurov got his first UFC win against Kang in his last fight after dropping his first two UFC fights, but it wasn’t the most confident win ever as Kang was having success in the  third round before Gafurov finished strong.

Gafurov took Kang down and held him there  the entire first round, but he’ll have no chance of doing that against Nakamura who is  9-0, and is a fantastic wrestler.

Nakamura is relentless with his pressure, he stays  active on the ground, and he has really good ground and pound and cardio.

The way to  beat him is to keep it on the feet and try and out strike him, but I don’t think Gafurov is  that talented of a striker.

Gafurov does have good cardio, and he’ll be the best fighter  that Nakamura has faced so I don’t think Gafurov gets finished, but he has short arms  and legs so he has to get in close to do any damage and then he’s in Nakamura’s world. The odds make sense, Nakamura by decision in this one.

Kevin Holland -120 vs Reiner de Ridder +100 

I wasn’t impressed with Ridder in his debut against Meerschaert. I thought he looked  slow on the feet, and Meerschaert was able to stuff and reverse some of his takedowns, and even though he got the finish, Kevin Holland is light years faster and better than  Meerschaert these days.

Holland’s striking is going to be so much better than Ridder’s, and Holland needs a good performance as he’s lost 3 out of 4 fights after suffering a rib injury in his last fight against Dolidze. Holland can grapple so I don’t think Ridder is going to have a big advantage in that department.

If Holland is healthy and focused, I think he’s the better fighter, but there’s always something crazy happening with a Kevin Holland fight so I’ve made it a rule that I don’t bet on Holland fights. He’s my pick, but I won’t be betting it.

Renato Moicano -225 vs Beneil Dariush 

Has Dariush just fallen off a cliff or will he regain his form? It’s not that he lost to  Oliviera and Tsarukyan, it’s how easy it was for them to finish him.

Dariush started off  against Oliviera stong, getting top position, but he got tired just a few minutes in, and  you could tell he was exhuasted and Oliviera hit him with a kick and then ground and  pound. And then agaisnt Tsarukyan, he looked slow from the start, and Tsarukyan  landed an easy knee up the middle and Dariush was done.

Moicano got a bit lucky in  his win against Drew Dober, and he should have lost to Jalin Turner as Turner blasted Moicano, and instead of following it up with a couple of ground and pound shots to get the win, he turned his back and tried to do the walk-off move, but the ref didn’t stop the  fight and Moicano survived and got the win in the next round.

However, what he did to Saint Denis was impressive. He got Saint Denis down early in the fight and never  stopped with the ground and pound until the doctor stopped the fight. If Dariush is truly  as bad as he’s looked in the last two fights, this version of Moicano will run through him. 

Dariush is going to have to stay away from getting taken down because that’s Moicano’s  world, and while Moicano’s striking on the feet isn’t great, it’s not terrible, and Dariush  hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2020 and that was Scott Holtzman.

Fading fighters when they start to look old and slow has been a money maker for us, and Dariush I’ll  gladly pick Moicano to get the win here.

Jiri Prochazka -110 vs Jamahal Hill -110 

I’m just not a Jamahal Hill guy. He won 4 in a row before getting obliterated by Alex  Pereira, but beating Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker, Thiago Santos, and Glover Texeira in his retirement fight isn’t impressive.

These guys are both happy they aren’t fighting Alex  Pereira as their last 3 combined losses are to him, but I think Jiri has the more diverse striking offense that comes from weird angles, and is tough to gameplan for.

Hill certainly has power, but he couldn’t KO Glover or Pereira, and after coming off of the  achilles injury, I have concerns about if he’s the same fighter.

This should be a violent fight that doesn’t go the distance, but I think Jiri catches Hill with a unique punch or elbow that Hill isn’t ready for. 

Umar Nurmagomedov -325 vs Merab Dvalishvili +275 

I can’t wrap my head around Merab being this big of an underdog against anyone. I  know Umar is great, he’s 18-0, and doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses, but Merab’s  style is so tough to deal with.

Merab is going to do what he always does which is push an insane pace with non-stop chain wrestling so this line suggests that it’s not going to  work at all against Umar, and I don’t buy it.

Umar’s takedowns are really good as well so I see him having success at times, but Merab’s cardio and pressure has been too  much for everyone recently.

These guys are pretty even in my opinion, there’s no  chance I’m laying -325 on anyone in this matchup. Merab at plus money is the only way I would play this.

UFC 311 Main Event: Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan

This fight is probably going to come down to Tsarukyan’s takedown defense. If he can  fight off the shoots and takedowns, he can absolutely pull the upset.

Makhachev hasn’t lost in nearly a decade, but I haven’t been super impressed with him recently. He got  the late finish on Poirier, but he struggled at times, and wasn’t as dominant.

Before that, he beat Volkanovski twice, but Volk almost won the first fight, and Volk was out of shape in the second fight when he took it on short notice. Poirier had some success striking  against Makhachev, but Makhachev was always able to get the takedown to neutralize him, and Tsarukyan is a better wrestler than Poirier.

I can see Tsarukyan fighting off  some of the takedowns and making this fight uncomfortable for Makhachev, and if he  does that early, I think that can open up the striking for Tsarukyan.

The +320 is too good of a price to pass up, I think Tsarukyan is a really tough matchup for Islam so in a  fight that I think is going to be close, I’ll take the underdog here.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

  • Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
  • Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
  • Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!

«
Back to Top
close popup icon