UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds April 12

UFC 314 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 314 picks and predictions for April 12 with the main event headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes in a Featherweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL.

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes: UFC 314 Main Event

Saturday, April 12	UFC 314 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alexander Volkanovski -125 vs Diego Lopes +105
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -145 / Under +115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Kaseya Center in Miami, FL
TV:	PPV

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UFC 314 Predictions

Nora Cornolle -198 vs Hailey Cowan +175

Cowan is a Dana White favorite as he gave her a contract that she didn’t deserve on CS in a fight she barely won, and she came into UFC and lost her debut, and has then withdrawn from 2 fights since then.

She clinches, but isn’t great, she strikes some, but again, isn’t great, and I just can’t see what upside she has. Cornolle is coming off a loss to Calvacanti, but I think Calvacanti is pretty good, and she showed her striking is above average, and she was able to fight back against Cornolle’s clinch and wrestling.

That being said, it was a split decision so Cornolle was very close to getting the win, and I think she’s going to be just a bit better with the wrestling/clinch/takedowns here.

Cowan probably has a bit better striking, but it’s close and with these rounds that will be close, I think Cornolle banks at least 2 of them.

The over 2.5 rounds here will be juicy, but it’s a parlay piece as both woman are durable and have good cardio so I don’t see a finish.

Marco Tulio -340 vs Tresean Gore +270

Gore is 2-2 in the UFC, but his wins are against Fremd when he was losing and pulled off a miracle guillotine, and against Trocoli who hadn’t fought in 3 years, and then fought Shara Magomedov and Gore in the span of a few months and got finished in both as he didn’t look like he cared at all so Gore’s wins aren’t impressive, and he’s only fought twice in the last 2.5 years.

Tulio came off of CS, and while we like fading CS guys that we don’t think are UFC ready, Tulio absolutely is UFC ready as he did what he was supposed to in his debut and KO’d Potieria in the first.

Tulio’s striking is fantastic, all he has to do is keep it on the feet for just a little bit and his striking will get the better of Gore whose striking is not good. Tulio by KO in this one.

Sumaderji -218 vs Mitch Raposo +180

I’m not that high on Sumaderji, but I’m even more not high on Raposo. To sum it up, he’s undersized with limited weapons and bad fight IQ, and even though he went to split decision with Andre Lima who has looked really good since then, he had plenty of opportunities to win that fight and he just didn’t know what to do.

Maderji has lost 3 straight, but to opponents better than Raposo, including the insane fight against Schnell where he fought with a torn ACL.

Maderji has 7 career losses, none by KO, and 6 by submission so if he doesn’t get submitted he’s winning fights, and Raposo isn’t a great submission fighter.

This fight is probably really close, but in the end Maderji is the play, but at -218 it’s too pricey so I’ll stay away from this fight.

Michael Oleksiejczuk -192 vs Sedriques Dumas +160

Olekseijczuk has lost 4 out of 5 fights, and 3 of them were by submission as his ground game is pretty bad. He actually got a little bit of wrestling and clinch work going in the 3rd round against Bullet, but Bullet’s takedown defense and wrestling is non-existent.

Olekseijczuk wants to strike, but I think he’s going to have trouble getting Dumas to stand and bang with him.

Dumas is a pretty boring fighter, but he will clinch and wrestle for 3 rounds, and while he makes some dumb decisions in and out of the octagon, I like his style to be a problem for Olekseijczuk in this fight.

At plus money, I get the much better wrestler against a guy who has showed over and over again he struggles against wrestlers so this is a good plus money dog.

You’re never going to feel confident betting on Dumas, but this price doesn’t reflect the fighting style differences IMO.

Julian Erosa -360 vs Darren Elkins +285

I can’t believe Elkins is still fighting, and winning in the UFC. His fights are absolute train wrecks as there will be wild striking, wild grappling exchanges, and lots of blood if the fight lasts longer than a minute.

He’s won 2 in a row by sheer will and determination over Pineda and Brown, but I think Erosa is too dangerous for his wild style.

Elkins is a warrior, but he leaves a lot of openings if the opponent has the stamina and the ability, and Erosa certainly has the ability as he’s coming off of 2 first round submission wins against decent opponents.

Erosa is chiny as his last 4 losses are by KO, but Elkins doesn’t have the one shot KO power, it’s more of a forward pressure, brawling style.

Erosa is more technical, I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it 3 straight submission wins as Elkins will put his neck in dangerous situations. Erosa is the play.

Chase Hooper -700 vs Jim Miller +500

The line is pretty crazy here, but I get it. Hooper has looked good in his last 3 fights and the move up a weight division has made a big difference, but let’s not overreact to choking out Borshchev who has no ground game, and then submitting old Clay Guida.

Jim Miller is older, but he’s tough as nails, and he has the tools to beat Hooper. He’s won 6 out of 8 fights, and although he took a beating against King Green, he broke his hand in the first and was a sitting duck.

He rebounded with a devastating guilly against Jackson, and as good as Hooper has looked, Miller has the early power to get the KO, and he can submit just about anybody.

Does he have the stamina to keep up after a round or round and a half, probably not as Hoopers cardio is great.

I think you can get a great price on Miller ITD as that’s his path to victory, and Hooper can leave his chin open. I can’t lay -700 on Hooper as good as he’s looked, so the only way to play this fight is Miller by finish with a sprinkle, but if you don’t believe in Miller just lay off and move on.

Virna Jandiroba -148 vs Yan Xianoan +124

Winner probably gets a title shot, and I think Jandiroba’s wrestling is just too much for almost everyone in this divison, Xianoan included.

Jandiroba is predictable, and that’s what we like in betting is knowing what we’re going to get. Jandiroba is going to have to get through the reach of Yan, which won’t be easy, and Yan will certainly be expecting the takedowns, but I don’t think she can stop all of them.

Weili’s wrestling is elite, and Yan struggled mightily against her, and I thought Ricci let Yan off the hook by not attempting more takedowns and wrestling, and there’ no way Jandiroba will not wrestle all fight.

It’s not an exciting fighting style, but it’s profitable as we’ve cashed 4 bets in a row on Jandiroba, and I think we can make it 5 in a row here. Jandiroba with her wrestling will get the win.

Sean Woodson -155 vs Dan Ige +130

Nice step in competition for Woodson here against Ige who’s lost 3 out of 4, but his last 2 losses were to Lerone Murphy who’s making a push for a title shot, and a loss to Lopes when Ige literally took the fight on 6 hours notice the day of.

Woodson, like always, is going to have the massive height and reach advantage, but Ige will certainly be faster on the feet so it’s just a matter of who’s strength will prevail.

I think both guys are going to be wearing damage the longer this fight goes on as Woodson’s kicks and jabs will find their home, but Ige is a dog who will eat Woodson’s shots so he can get inside to land his own shots.

The wildcard could be if Ige lands a takedown, which he can do, but against the bigger Woodson, it’s going to be tough.

I’m an Ige fan, I think his speed and aggression is going to be a bit too much as Woodson’s strikes can be telegraphed and I think Ige can move and counter with success. This fight will be close, I think it’s a sneaky one to go the distance, but I’ll lean the underdog here.

Nikita Krylov -192 vs Dominick Reyes +160

Krylov all day in this one. Reyes has won 2 straight after taking 1.5 years off, but they were against Jacoby, a pure striker, and Anthony Smith who was an emotional wreck after losing his best friend shortly before the fight.

Krylov isn’t going to stand and go strike for strike with Reyes, no chance. He’s going to get the takedowns like he did against Spann and Oezdemir, and while I worry about a 2 year layoff, I don’t worry about his game plan.

Reyes can strike with power, but not off his back and that’s where I think Krylov gets this fight and dominates. Krylov is the pick.

Jean Silva -325 vs Bryce Mitchell +260

Striker vs Wrestler in this one, and I have the striker winning. Silva has lethal striking as he’s knocked out all 4 UFC opponents, and the advantage that he will have in the striking department is going to be massive. Mitchell wants to wrestle, and he has awful striking defense as we saw him get knocked in truly scary fashion against Josh Emmett.

His hands are way too lose, he doesn’t have a good guard, and his footwork is sloppy, and if Silva keeps this on the fight, it’s only a matter of time before he gets the KO shot.

The key to this fight is if Mitchell can get it to the ground and keep it there, and I don’t think he’s going to be able to for all 3 rounds.

Silva showed good takedown defense against Jourdain where Jourdain got him down for a few seconds, but Silva used solid technique to get up, and on the break he KO’d Jourdain with a sick uppercut.

He trains with the Fighting Nerds, and he’s going to get plenty of practice with wrestling and takedown defense against Caio Borralho and company leading up to the fight.

Mitchell’s last 2 losses were against guys who have big time power in Emmmett and Topuria, and I put Silva in that category.

When Emmett and Topuria pressured him, and stuffed just a takedown or two, Mitchell was lost so his margin of error is next to 0. Silva all day in this one, probably by KO.

Yair Rodriguez -190 vs Patricio Pitbull +160

First of all, the height difference is going to be massive. Pitbull is usually the shorter fighter, but Yair is 5 inches taller, and that’s going to be a lot for Pitbull to overcome.

Pitbull is a legend, but his success in the past has been based on taking the shots his opponent gives him, and returning with a bit more volume and aggression, but he’s 37 now, and his last 3 fights haven’t looked great.

He lost to Sergio Pettis 3 fights ago when he was compromised with a shoulder injury, then he got knocked out in Rizin, and then he got a win against Jeremy Kennedy, but I don’t put a lot into that win. Kennedy had just had a baby before that fight (Fade The Baby Theory), and he gassed in the third after 2 lackluster rounds.

Also, Pitbull used 2 low blows to take long breaks to get his energy back, one of the low blows was in round 2 where Kennedy clearly had the momentum, and Pitbull milked it for all it was worth. Pitbull is low volume and hittable these days, and I think Yair takes advantage.

Yair has really good striking, and even though he’s coming off of 2 losses, one was to Volk, and the other was to Ortega where Yair was sparking Ortega with the striking, but it looked like Yair sustained a core injury as he grabbed his mid-section, and then slowed down immensely and got submitted in the third, but make no mistake, before that Yair had Ortega busted and bloodied up.

Pitbull can’t wrestle and grapple like Ortega, and he certainly isn’t 2023 Volk caliber at this point. Yair’s length is going to be too much of a problem on the feet, and I don’t see Pitbull getting through those jabs and kicks to get his offense going. Yair is the play for me in this one.

Paddy Pimblett -162 v Michael Chandler +136

There are several ways to look at Chandler I think. You can say he’s lost 4 out of 5, with his only win being the corpse of Tony Ferguson. Or you could say, he’s lost to Gaethje, Poirier and Oliveira twice, all absolute elite beasts and Paddy ain’t on that level.

To be honest, I just think Chandler’s bestdays are behind him, and I thought he looked like he had fallen off a cliff against Oliveira except .

Sadly for him, he held on hope that he would get the Conor McGregor fight, and he went a long time without a fight, and I think father time has caught up with him.

His striking was wild and inaccurate against Oliveira, and he was taken down with ease over and over. Paddy has a good ground game, and I don’t think he’s going to have that much trouble getting Chandler down and working him on the ground.

Chandler has cardio for days, but he eats so many strikes in pretty much all of his fights, and I think the wear and tear is catching up with him.

He’s going to be wild and unpredictable, but I think Paddy has the tools to deal with it, and once he gets it on the ground I like him to control Chandler and grind out rounds. Pimblett for me.

UFC 314 Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

I need to see what Volk looks like this week in the press conference, weigh ins, faceoffs, etc. He’s been open about having alcohol issues when he’s not in training camp, it’s taken a toll on his body, and he’s coming off of 2 losses where he got finished early in the fight.

Granted, it was to Topuria and Makhachev, but this is the guy who almost beat Makhachev in their first fight, and he dominated and KO’d Yair Rodriguez.

If we get the Volk who’s even 90% of who he was in his prime, I think he wrecks Lopes. If he’s too old, and the wear and tear has caught up to him, he’s a sitting duck. Lopes is good, but he has big holes in his game.

His striking is good, but his striking defense isn’t great, and what are his big wins? Beating Dan Ige in a sparring match when Ige took the fight on 6 hours notice, and Brian Ortega when Ortega looked like he’d rather be anywhere else than in a fight.

It’s a wait and see for me in this fight, if Volk looks and sounds back to normal, he’s a slam dunk. If he doesn’t, it’ll be a pass for me.

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