UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs Imavov Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds February 1

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for February 1 with the main event headlined by Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 12:00pm ET from The Venue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

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Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, February 1	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Israel Adesanya -160 vs Nassourdine Imavov +135
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -200 / Under +155)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 12:00pm ET / 9:00am PT
Arena:	The Venue in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Bolaji Oki -155 vs Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady +130 

I had high hopes for Oki after seeing him on Contender Series, but his UFC career  hasn’t started off great.

He won a close split decision against another CS fighter, Timothy Cuamba, but Cuamba was on short notice and then he got submitted in the first round against Duncan.

He has good striking, and he’s very athletic, but he’s been  sloppy, and Selwady is good enough to take advantage of mistakes.

Selwady is active on the feet, and can push a good pace, and even though he got knocked out in the third  in his last fight, he was still getting takedowns late before Loik landed a big KO punch. I don’t like what I’ve seen from Oki in his two UFC fights, Selwady at plus money is the  pick.

Hamdy Abdelwahab -110 vs Jamal Pogues -110 

I’ll never forgive Hamdy for his last fight. I bet big against him, and he beat Mayes and  showed energy, cardio and skills that I hadn’t seen from him before and he popped for steroids after the fight.

That was 2.5 years ago so I have no clue what version of him  we’re going to get here. He’s a wrestler so look for him to try and shoot and get this to the ground, but Pogues has shown decent takedown defense in the past.

Pogues is  pretty bad despite his 2-1 UFC record as he has no offensive wrestling or ground game, and his striking isn’t special either.

He’s just a big, rough and tough big man that fights kinda like a sumo wrestler with punches.

This is a terrible fight, but Pogues will be the  pick as I can’t see Hamdy being UFC ready after a 2.5 year layoff. I won’t be betting this fight.

Bogdan Grad -130 vs Lucas Alexander +100 

Alexander throws a lot of kicks, but they don’t seem to be strong enough to knock anyone out at this level, and his volume with punches isn’t great, and I think that’s going  to be a problem in this one.

Grad lost on CS to Tom Nolan, but won 2 fights after that  and got a second chance on CS and got the win in a really close fight that was action packed, and I was impressed with his volume and activity.

I think that’s going to be the  difference here as Grad’s volume and potential takedowns are going to look better to the judges as I think Grad’s cardio is better as well.

I don’t see a finish in this one so  Grad to win by decision could be a sneaky way to play this one to give us better odds, but Alexander has been KO’d in his 2 UFC losses so Grad ML will be the play.

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Jasmine Jasudavicius -225 vs Mayra Bueno Silva +186 

Silva is a tough fighter to trust these days as she looked great in her 3 fight win streak, but the level of competition was pretty bad. She beat Holly Holm, but tested positive for a banned substance, although the substance was for ADHD and it wasn’t steroids. 

Since that fight she lost to Pennington in a bad performance, and she lost to Chiasson  where she looked great at the start of the fight, but quickly faded and got taken down and badly cut in the second round which caused the fight to be stopped. Silva just seems like a head case recently when she fights as she’ll look great at some times, and then awful other times.

She has good striking and good submissions, but she doesn’t always show it so it’s tough to predict her. We know what to expect from Jasmine on the other hand as she wants the fight to go to the ground where she works the wrestling  and ground control, and we saw a nice submission win in her last fight.

Silva is a wild card at this point, and I don’t trust her to put together 3 solid rounds so Jasmine will be  the pick as I think the first round will be close, but Jasmine pulls away in rounds 2 and 3.

Mike Davis -148 vs Fares Ziam +124 

This should be a great fight as Ziam has really improved his game over the last couple years. His power and aggression has gotten a lot better, and it’s resulted in a 4 fight win streak where he’s shows wrestling and grappling as well as striking.

Davis is really good as well, I wish he would fight more often as he has only fought 3 times since 2020, but when he fights he’s great. Really good striking and a a solid ground game, and I think he’s going to be a bit too much for Ziam.

I think he has a bit more power than Ziam, and he showed in his last fight he can get good ground control and a submission. He’s got a bit more upside so he’ll be the pick here. 

Terrance McKinney -360 vs Damir Hadzovic +285 

Hadzovic is 38 years old, and haasn’t fought in 2.5 years, and his only win in his last 4  fights is against Yancy Medeiros who is awful.

This fight all comes down to McKinney,  and his cardio or lack thereof. He’ll come out fast and look for the finish, and if he  doesn’t get it quick, his gas tank goes to empty real quick.

I’m not sure Hadzovic will  survive the early onslaught so McKinney by finish will be the play. However, if you’re watching this live and you start to see McKinney get tired, take Hadzovic live as McKinney doesn’t have a second wind.

Shamil Gaziev -380 vs Thomas Petersen +300 

Petersen is a really limited fighter in my opinion, and I think he gets smoked here. He’s  1-1 in the UFC, and even in his win he got cut and beat up at times against Usman.

He doesn’t do anything special, he telegraphs his strikes, and he took Usman down in his  last fight, but Usman was able to get up fairly easily, and Usman isn’t known for his  ground game.

Gaziev is the better striker, clincher and he shouldn’t have any trouble  defending anything Petersen does.

Look for Gaziev to really damage Petersen up on the feet, and likely get the finish. Gaziev ML is a great parlay piece.

Muhammad Naimov -258 vs Kaan Ofli +210 

Naimov will hold his head in shame if he loses to Ofli in this one. Ofli is coming off of  The Ultimate Fighter, and his first official UFC fight against Santos, he got knocked out in the second round, but he got absolutely nothing going on offense in that fight, he  couldn’t defend leg kicks in the slightest, and his striking was mediocre at best.

Naimov  is coming off his first UFC loss where he was fighting well, against Lima, but he made  one slip up and Lima got his back and sunk in the rear naked choke.

Naimov can wrestle, and while his striking isn’t great, it isn’t going to need to be great against Ofli. Both guys have 11 wins and 3 losses, but Naimov has 3 UFC wins and I like him to get the win here.

Said Nurmagomedov -198 vs Vinicius Oliveira +164 

Oliveira is a powerhouse who is looking for the KO on every strike he throws, but his technique is sloppy. He leaves himself wide open with his hands at his side, and he  fights really cocky and wild.

His 2 UFC wins are against Sopaj who took the fight on short notice, and then he beat Ricky Simon where I swear Simon was hurt as Simon  didn’t get his normal chain wrestling success, and Oliveira was able to just tee off on  him on the feet.

Nurmagomedov has holes in his game as well though. His wrestling isn’t as amazing as other Nurmagomedov’s, and his 2 losses to Martinez and Barcelos were when his opponents just outworked him with pace and volume.

He’s 32 years old, and while I think he should win I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oliveira have moments of success on the feet.

If Nurmagomedov gets it to the ground, he could easily get the  submission, but if Oliveira shows good takedown defense I think Said could be in trouble on the feet. Oliveira can be undisciplined, but I like his upside so it’s dog or pass in this one if you’re betting it.

Sergei Pavlovich -298 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +240 

Pavlovich has lost 2 straight after 6 straight first round KO’s, but losing to Aspinall was expected, and while Volkov is a great fighter, he really exposed a weakness in  Pavlovich.

Volkov used his length to keep Pavlovich at distance, and he moved around  constantly, and is exposed Pavlovich’s lack of fluidity in his movement.

He couldn’t get  the big early KO punch, and he was beaten pretty easily. I’m not sure Rozenstruik can  replicate that movement as he can be flat footed, his strikes aren’t that complicated to  see coming, and I don’t think Pavlovich will be scarred of his power.

One thing that is interesting to me is that Rozenstruik took Tuivasa to decision in his last fight, and that  was Tuivasa’s first decision in 11 fights.

He was able to stay away from the big strikes of Tuivasa, and he barely got the decision win, but in the end Pavlovich is way better than Tuivasa and I think it’s only a matter of time before Pavlovich catches Rozenstruik with the KO shot. Pavlovich by KO is the pick.

Shara Magomedov -192 vs Michael Page +160 

Shara got the crazy double spinning backfist highlight KO against Petrosyan in his last fight, and while it was awesome I’m more interested in the rest of the fight.

Petrosyan was having some success on the feet with his striking on Shara, and while Shara was constantly able to return fire with his kicks, Petrosyan showed that Shara has some defensive issues. Shara’s cardio is fantastic, and he’s always active so Page is going to  have to keep up with the volume and constant movement.

Page didn’t show the volume  and activity against Ian Garry, but Garry wasn’t pushing the pace either so I back to the Kevin Holland fight that he won, and again I just don’t see the volume of strikes.

Page is a tough guy to fight as his stance is odd, his strikes come from weird angles, but I  think Magomedov just does more with the striking and it looks better to the judges.

I don’t epect much clinching or grappling as both are pretty bad at it, so I see 3 rounds on  the feet with Shara out landing Page, especially with the kicks. Magomedov is the play.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs Nassourdine Imavov

I said it after Izzy knocked out Alex Pereira, that it was the peak of his career and there was really nothing else left for him to prove, and that I expected Izzy to go downhill quick.

He’s lost his 2 fights since then, I’ve bet against him in both, and I’ll be betting against him again. Physically, he hasn’t looked chisled and in the best shape, and he hasn’t looked as intense or dialed in. Once these elite fighters get knocked off the top of the mountain, it’s almost impossible to get back there and I think Imavov is going to win a pretty boring fight.

Imavov has had cardio issues, but Izzy isn’t pushing a hard pace these days, and Imavov is the better wrestler so if gets this to the ground, he’ll be  better there.

If Izzy was in his prime, he would have the striking advantage, but those  days seem to be gone so I actually think Imavov has more pop on his strikes these days.

Izzy’s energy falling off a cliff in the 4th round against Du Plessis is a gigantic red flag, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens again. Imavov at plus money is a fantastic bet.

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