UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Fiorot Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 30

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for March 30th with Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot headlining the main event in a women’s flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ.

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Erin Blanchfield vs Manon Fiorot: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 30	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Erin Blanchfield -190 vs Manon Fiorot +160
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -135 / Under +105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Boardwalk Hall, Atlantic City, NJ
TV:	ESPN

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Jamall Emmers -205 v Nate Landwehr +170

I don’t understand this line at all so I’ll happily take the plus money on Landwehr. Emmers is a solid fighter, and I still think he won against Jack Jenkins two fights ago, but I’m not that impressed with his performances against lesser competition than Landwehr.

He knocked out Dennis Buzukja in his last fight, but Buzukja is terrible. He beat an undefeated Askhabov, but Askhabov’s level of competition was terrible, and before that he got submitted by Pat Sabatini, a decent ground fighter.

Landwehr is coming off a loss to Dan Ige, but Ige is a legit fighter way ahead of Jamall Emmers, and maybe this is recency bias that Emmers is coming off a win and Landwehr is coming off a loss, but Landwehr is going to come forward and pressure immediately, and he’s shown good cardio, wrestling and striking for all three rounds.

Landwehr has been a loose cannon in his career, but he’s gotten better with managing energy and showing patience and this fight is way closer to even money than this line. I like Landwehr to win some tough rounds and squeak out a decision win.

Melissa Gatto -166 v Victoria Dudakova +140

I’m a fan of Dudakova and I’ve won money betting on her Contender Series and two UFC fights, but I can’t say I was impressed with her last performance against Frey, who is pretty bad.

Dudakova’s striking is not good, and Frey was able to take her down early in the second round and hold her there for most of the round, but Dudakova pulled out round three for a lackluster win.

The fight before that only lasted 35 seconds as Dudakov’s opponent dislocated her elbow on a fluke injury so we haven’t really seen her fight anyone remotely close to Gatto’s Gatto can be so frustrating as she has the physical tools, but her fight IQ is really bad, and she fights down to her opponents, and it’s cost her two wins in a row.

However, Gatto’s striking is light years better than Dudakova’s and the ground game from Dudakkova doesn’t worry me as Gatto can wrestle, and Dudakova got held down for a long time by Frey.

The other thing in play is that Dudakova is moving up a weight class so I believe Gatto will be bigger on fight night. Gatto is the play, and I love this one.

Ibo Aslan -115 v Anton Turkalj -105

I don’t expect this to be a technical fight with a bunch of sneaky moves. This will be two guys throwing strikes, clinching and digging in body shots until someone gets knocked out or taps.

Aslan is coming off a quick KO win on Contender Series, and before that he had won 11 out of 12 fights by finish with his one loss being to…Anton Turkalj.

I watched that fight and Turkalj survived a lot of big shots by clinching, hanging on for dear life, and pulling off a crazy submission win when he got a takedown in the second and Aslan made a huge mistake and gave up his back, and Turkalj, but make no mistake, Aslan was beating him up, and Aslan looks like he’s much better these days.

Turkalj has horrific striking defense as evidenced by him getting KO’d by Tyson Pedro who just retired, and this is a nice setup for UFC. Turkalj has lost all three of his UFC fights and this will probably be his 4th so the UFC can cut him and free up a roster spot.

I like Aslan to win, you can take him now to win or wait and take him to win inside the distance. Turkalj will try and hug Aslan to prevent the striking, but I don’t think it will work forever and Aslan will eventually land the big shot and get the win.

Julio Arce -520 v Herbert Burns +390

I can’t believe Burns is getting another fight, but Arce ITD is the way to play this. Burns has been finished in his last couple of fights due to injury and exhaustion, and he has looked absolutely horrible.

Before those losses, he beat Evan Dunham who doesn’t fight anymore, and landed a lucky knee to KO Landwehr, but Burns is a shot fighter at this point.

Arce is a legit fighter who is 2-2 in his last four fights, but his losses are to Montel Jackson and Song Yadong so no shame in those fights. Arce has cardio, and all he has to do is not get randomly finished early on and Burns won’t have much offense left after a few minutes. Arce is the play.

Caolan Loughran -325 v Angel Pacheco +260

Angel Pacheco is coming off a crazy fight on Contender Series where he and his opponent landed over 200 strikes, and while it was fun to watch, he showed no striking defense, no ground game, and the only thing he showed was toughness, and that doesn’t win fights.

I’m not a big fan of Loughran as I don’t think he’s elite, and he lost to Taylor Lapilus last fight, but it was a short notice fight, and Lapilus is a good fighter with tons of experience, and Loughran performed well and was able to land some strikes and get takedowns, and the takedowns is where Loughran should thrive in this fight.

Loughran is very strong, and his takedowns are really good and he can hold guys down and do damage, and I see him doing that here. Pacheco will be looking for a banger type of fight, but Loughran won’t give it to him if he has any type of fight IQ. Loughran will grind this one out and get the win.

Dennis Buzukja -135 v Connor Matthews +114

I like fading the Contender Series fighters from last season this year so I would like to fade Matthews, but Buzukja is pretty bad as he’s really gotten beat up in his two UFC fights. He went the distance against Woodson, but he absorbed a ton of punishment, and then he got knocked out in less than a minute in his next fight against Emmers.

Matthews won his Contender Series fight by decision, and he showed good striking and takedowns and ground game, but he did get hit several times as his striking defense is pretty sloppy.

The under 2.5 in this fight is +124, and that’s what my play is in this fight. Buzukja’s chin may be gone at this point, and with Matthews’s bad striking defense, I think one of these guys finds the knockout. Take the under.

Jacob Malkoun -198 v Andre Petroski +164

If there’s justice in this world, Malkoun will get the win as he’s coming off a “loss” where he was DQ’d when he betting the $h*t out of Brundage, and he grazed the back of the head in a wild ground and pound and the ref inexplicably DQ’d him.

Malkoun has lost three fights in his career, one was a DQ, one was a flash KO 18 seconds into the fight four years ago, and the other was a decision to Brendan Allen who is on a six-fight win streak and is fighting in main events now.

Petroski has a good record in the UFC, but they aren’t the most impressive wins, and we just watched him step up in competition against Michel Pereira and he got finished a minute into the fight.

I think Malkoun’s striking game and cardio is better, and even though Petroski has a decent wrestling and ground game, Malkoun’s might be better. The price tag is warranted, Malkoun is the pick by decision.

Lupita Godinez -185 v Virna Jandiroba +154

I don’t agree with this price tag as Jandiroba has fought the better competition by far. She’s coming off wins against Angela Hill and Marina Rodriguez, and while Loopy has won four fights in a row, two of them were split decisions against Cynthia Calvillo and Tabatha Ricci, not great opponents.

Godinez comes from a wrestling background, but she’s decided that she’s a striker now, and I wonder if she’s going to struggle with the pressure and takedowns of Jandiroba.

Jandiroba is just scrappy, tough, always moving, doesn’t give up on takedowns, and it always in the face of the opponents, and she has great cardio.

Loopy is normally the one coming forward and controlling ring position, but I don’t think she will be doing that in this one and I think it will throw her off. I love the plus money on Jandiroba here, she’s the pick.

Bill Algeo -218 v Kyle Nelson +180

I think the books are onto Kyle Nelson here as he’s won two in a row, but he got the benefit of Blake Bilder fighting like a dumbass, and then the judges gave him the win over Fernando Padilla, but I went back and watched the fight and I thought Padilla won.

Algeo isn’t going to fight like a moron, and you can’t depend on bad decisions to keep going your way so I like Algeo in this one.

Nelson isn’t really a threat to finish, he’s just a really smart, tough fighter who doesn’t make big mistakes, lands enough punches, and gets enough clinch time to pull out rounds, but Algeo won’t let Nelson get away with that.

He’s active through all three rounds, has great length with kicks and strikes, and has a solid ground and clinch game to keep Nelson from stealing close rounds. Algeo is the pick for sure in this one.

Nursulton Ruziboev -285 v Sedriques Dumas +230

I probably won’t be betting anything on this fight as there are so many unknowns with these two.

Ruziboev has a ton of fights in other promotions, and he made his debut against Brunno Ferreira and he flatlined him early in the 1st, which was great for him, but I was hoping to see more cage time from him so we could see his cardio as he hasn’t been out of the first round since 2019 so we know he can finish guys quick with his striking or submission game, but we don’t know what he’ll look like the longer the fight goes on.

Dumas has had an interesting career as he’s 9-1 with his loss being to Josh Fremd, not a great UFC fighter.

Since then he’s beaten Brundage who seemingly didn’t want to fight in that one, and not being able to finish Brundage when Brundage was not trying any offense whatsoever wasn’t a great look.

Next, they gave him Abu Azaitar who had fought once since 2018, and Azaitar was only fighting because the event was in his backyard and he has a lot of rich family and friends who wanted to see him that night.

Josh Fremd is the closest thing to a competitive UFC fighter that Dumas has faced and he got choked out in that one so I can’t take him to win this one, but we have no clue if Ruziboev has cardio after the first round so I don’t find value in anything in this one. Pass on this one.

Chidi Njokuani -192 v Rhys McKee +160

In what world is Chidi -192 against anyone right now? He’s lost three in a row, and his last fight against Oleksiejczuk was alarming.

He was doing fine in the first round with his striking, and then he just fell off a cliff and got ground and pounded out, and I don’t know if it was a cardio thing or an injury, but he hasn’t looked right since his insane fight against Rodrigues where he was seconds away from a KO win, but he couldn’t get Rodrigues out of there and he Chidi ended up getting KO’d a bit later.

McKee isn’t great and lost to Ange Loosa in his return, and while he didn’t show much upside, if Chidi gasses out, he’ll take this fight in rounds two and three.

McKee would be smart to try and push the pace from the beginning and force Chidi to throw higher volume, and if he avoids the big shot in round one, I think McKee can just wear Chidi out. It’s a dog or pass fight for me as I don’t trust Chidi in the slightest the longer this fight goes on.

Bruno Silva -285 v Chris Weidman +230

I can’t believe Weidman is still fighting, but there’s no world I’m betting on him, and it’s Silva or nothing in this one. Silva has lost four out of five, but you go through each fight and his performances aren’t as bad as the record.

One loss was a decision to Alex Pereira, one loss was to Meerschaert where he was sick in the fight, and then he beat Brad Taveres. After that, he lost to Branden Allen, who’s fighting in main events now, and then he lost to Shara Magomedov who made his UFC debut, and it looks like Magamedov is a legit UFC fighter with insane kicks and volume.

Outside of the Merschaert fight where he was sick, I haven’t seen a terrible performance from him, and all those losses are to guys who would easily beat this version of Chris Weidman who is past his prime, and his body is just really beat up at this point.

His last fight against Brad Taveres was almost embarrassing as Weidman was barely hobbling around the ring, and despite the very low volume, Tavares easily won. Silva should easily win, and don’t be surprised if this is Weidman’s last fight.

Vicente Luque -148 v Joaquin Buckley +124

Two guys coming off a really strong wins in their last fights so this should be a great fight to watch. Two fights ago, Buckley moved down to welterweight and he’s looked great as he’s not fighting guys way bigger than him now, and his power was really seen against Fialho and Morono.

Luque needed the win his last fight against RDA as he had lost to Geoff Neal and Belal Muhammad in the two previous fights and I think we’ll see an athletic Buckley try and use his speed and energy on the feet to piece up Luque on the feet, and if Luque handles the pressure, I think he can make this fight a bit dirty with clinches and counter strikes.

My concern with Luque is that I don’t think he’ll be as fast as Buckley, and his last win was against a guy who is almost 40.

My concern with Buckley is that the two best fighters he’s faced was Christ Curtis and Nassourdine Imavov and he lost both of those, albeit in a different weight class.

I actually like the over 2.5 at +130 in this fight. Buckley couldn’t finish Morono, despite dominating him, and Luque couldn’t get RDA out of there in a five-round fight last time out. These guys are pretty even, and I think it comes down to a close decision so I’ll take the plus money on the over here.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Erin Blanchfield -190 vs Manon Fiorot +160

Expect a lot strikes, blood and ton of OHHH’s and WOW’s from the announcers and fans in this one.

Both are violent strikers, and I think the biggest difference is Fiorot prefers to do her damage on the outside while Blanchfield likes to get close and force clinch and takedowns, and as fun as this fight will be I think that’s what it comes down to.

If Fiorot can keep this fight at distance, and on the feet, she’ll win, but if Blanchfield can force Fiorot against the fence, land body shots and get takedowns, Blanchfield will win. Because this fight is so close, I think the value is the only way to go so I’ll take Fiorot at +160.

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