UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Borralho Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds August 24

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for August 24th with the main event headlined by Jared Cannonier vs Caio Borralho in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Jared Cannonier vs Caio Borralho: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, August 24	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Jared Cannonier +170 vs Caio Borralho -205
Rounds:	N/A
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Cong Wang -850 vs Victoria Leonardo +575

Poor Leonardo as she’s 1-3 in the UFC, and they gave here Manon Fiorot, Melissa Gatto and Natalia Silva as opponents, and she lost all 3 to the surprise of nobody.

She did beat Mandy Bohm by using good clinch work and solid striking, and she’ll have to up her game against Wang.

Wang won Road To UFC, and she looks to have legit skills on the feet and on the ground. She’ll have the edge on the feet, and definitely on the ground, but -850 is really crazy.

There’s not much to do from a betting perspective from this fight as I don’t even have an opinion about the total in this one. Pass and move on.

Jacqueline Cavalcanti -192 vs Josiane Nunes +160

Nunes is really short, and her lack of size proved to be too much for her to overcome against Chelsea Chandler in her first UFC loss in her last fight, and it’s always been the big concern with her.

She has good power, she comes forward, and isn’t afraid to take a punch to land 2. Cavalcanti won her UFC debut against Fairn who is basically the opposite of Nunes in that Fairn is big, but tentative.

I didn’t think Cavalcanti’s strikes were super crisp, and it got her the decision win against Fairn, but I don’t think Nunes is going to be intimidated.

I’ll take a sprinkle on Nunes to land the more significant strikes, and her aggression and pressure will be enough to get a close decision win.

Vlacheslav Borshchev -250 vs James Llontop +205

I think Llontop will get better, but right now I don’t like his chances in the UFC. He has a lot of fights on his resume, but he’s only 25, and his win on Contender Series got him a UFC contract, but I think it was too soon for him, and he got submitted by Chris Padilla in the first round in his UFC debut.

He has ok striking, but he just doesn’t look like he has his man-body yet so his strikes don’t have enough zip on them, and we saw bad takedown defense and ground game against Padilla.

That’s a problem because the way to beat Borschchev is by taking him down and working him on the ground, and Llontop hasn’t shown that he can do that.

On the feet, I think Borshchev will be too much for him as his strikes are more crisp, and his experience will pay dividends against the younger Llontop. Borshchev is a nice parlay piece at this price.

Zach Reese -380 vs Jose Medina +300

Medina’s claim to fame is that Dana White loved him while he was getting his ass kicked on Contender Series. As a fighter, he isn’t good, and he’s fought guys in promotions I’ve never heard of so his record is really fraudulent.

He’s losing weight so he can drop down to middleweight here, and it’s always a bad sign when the best compliment you can give a fighter is that they’re tough, and you’re not complimenting their striking or ground game.

Reese is a tough one to figure out because he’s had 8 pro fights, and none of them have gotten out of the first round. In fact, he’s had less than 12 minutes of cage time in is professional fights.

He’s knocked guys out, he’s submitted guy, but what happens if he can’t finish Medina and then it turns out he doesn’t have 3-round cardio?

That’s the only recipe for a Medina win, but I think Medina is awful and Reese makes short work of him.

Danny Silva -245 vs Dennis Buzukja +200

I liked Danny Silva a lot going into contender series, and he didn’t disappoint as he and Angel Pacheco put on an amazing fight with Silva getting the win.

He got Josh Culibao in his UFC debut, which isn’t easy, but he took advantage of Culibao’s mistakes and got the close decision win.

Silva lost the first round on all scorecards, but showed great poise and cardio in the next 2 rounds utilizing clinch/control and better striking than Culibao to get the win.

Buzukja got his ass kicked in his first 2 UFC fights, but he did get the win against a pretty weak Connor Matthews.

He has good volume of strikes, but his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. I think Silva is the much more polished fighter, I like him to win by decision.

Robert Valentin -155 vs Ryan Loder +135

This should be a really close fight as both guys have looked good on TUF. Valentin has showed his finishing ability with a quick KO and a quick submission win, but we didn’t see him tested or pushed in those fights.

Maybe that’s good that he didn’t absorb any damage, maybe it’s bad as he didn’t learn much from his fights.

Loder is a wrestler that got a nice submission win in his first fight, and then he and Omran Chaaban put on a great 3-round fight where Loder got the OT win (we’ll see Chaaban in the UFC or Contender Series soon).

These guys both like to get opponents on the ground so I wonder if we see a striking match for a while as both guys will be able to defend the takedown.

I would say Valentin has a bit more finishing ability where Loder is bit more calculated and not as wreckless. I would take Loder to win just because it’s plus money, but I don’t have a strong opinion on who wins.

Michael Morales -600 vs Neil Magny +440

Magny is 37 years old, and is the perfect example of a gatekeeper as he isn’t good enough to contend for the title, but he’s a tough guy to fight for guys trying to move up the rankings as he’s taken out Mike Malott, Phil Rowe, Daniel Rodriguez and Max Griffin in the last few years.

He’s long, and rangy, and as he showed against Malott, he’s got great cardio, and this will be a great test for Morales.

Morales is young and getting better every fight as his striking is always on point, but you can see his defense, clinch, and ring control improving quickly. He’s 16-0, and he’s not going to finish his career undefeated so I have to decide if this is the fight that gives him his first loss.

First off, -600 is a ridiculous price against someone like Magny, but I do think Morales is going to have the more effective striking.

Don’t be surprised if every round is close with Morales edging out a close win, but the way to bet this fight is to take it to go the distance.

Both guys are patient, and they don’t make big mistakes, and cardio is no issue for either of them. Even if it’s a bit juicy, it’s a great parlay piece.

Edmen Shahbazyan -305 vs Gerald Meerschaert +245

Shahbazyan fights have the same trend. Shahbazyan needs to finish the fight early, and if he doesn’t, he gasses out and loses.

He has 5 wins in the UFC, all finishes, and 4 of them were in the first round. He has 4 losses in the UFC, all came in round 2 or later.

He will come out hard against Meerschaert with his striking, and if he lands the big ones, he will finish Meerschaeert, but if he gets tired, Meerschaert will probably get him on the ground and submit him.

Out of these guys’s last 20 combined fights, 17 have ended early so I will definitely be taking the under on this fight.

This is a perfect live betting opportunity if you’re watching, and you see Shahbazyan get tired if he doesn’t get the early finish and then you can just jump on Meerschaert at a great price.

Angela Hill -120 vs Tabatha Ricci +100

Angela Hill has looked great in her last 2 fights, and she got her first submission win when she really beat up Pinheiro and made her quit.

Before that she had a nice win against Gomes, and it’s crazy to watch her striking and wrestling game get better as she’s 39 years old. She’s fighting at the best level she’s ever fought at, but I think Ricci is going to be a bit better in this one.

Hill is almost 40, and Ricci is 29 so I think Ricci is just going to be a bit faster and a bit stronger. Ricci is coming off a really hard-fought win against Pennington where she showed great cardio, and she was able to edge out Pennington in some of the clinch and striking battles to get a close win.

Hill has taken advantage of glaring weaknesses in her last couple of opponents in Gomes’s bad ground game and Pinheiro’s inability to deal with any type of adversity.

Ricci doesn’t have those weaknesses, and Hill’s has some spotty striking defense, and in fact she got cut by Pinheiro before getting the finish. Ricci is going to be too strong and accurate with the striking over 3 rounds, I like Ricci to win.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Jared Cannonier +170 vs Caio Borralho -205

I’ve been on board the Borralho train since I first cashed on him on Contender Series, and it’s been a cash cow every since as he is 6-0 in the UFC and I think he makes it 7-0.

Cannonier is 40 years old, and is coming off of getting finished in the 4th by Imavov, and I don’t think he’ll be able to keep this fight on the feet, which is where it will need to be for Cannonier to have a chance.

Borralho is the mastermind behind the Fighting Nerds gym who have had immense success recently, and they are brilliant with coming up with a game plan and making sure their fighters implement it.

The game plan for Borralho is pretty obvious and that’s to strike for a bit to set up the double leg take down where Caio excels.

Once he shoots clean and gets his opponent on the ground, he’s so strong and skilled at getting the hooks in and dominating.

Cannonier will be his biggest test, but he’s got the age, athleticism and ground game advantages which will prove to be too much over 5 rounds. The line is moving so I would get it in quick or use it as a parlay piece.

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