UFC Fight Night: Covington vs Buckley Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds December 14

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for December 14 with the main event headlined by Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL.

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Colby Covington vs Joaquin Buckley: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, December 14	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Colby Covington +225 vs Joaquin Buckley -275
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -145 / Under +115)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Amalie Arena in Tampa, FL
TV:	ESPN2

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Josefin Knutsson -238 vs Piera Rodriguez +195 

Knutsson will have the volume advantage, and she’ll land a lot of strikes, but I think she  loses this fight because of her lack of takedown defense.

In her last fight against  Polastri, she got taken down several times, and the takedowns were fairly easy for Polastri, and she did damage to Knutsson while on the ground. R

odriguez has solid takedowns as long as she stops headbutting opponents, but she should have success here and her ground and pound is good. I think she can win a couple of rounds with the  takedowns so I’ll take the underdog here.

Ramon Taveras -125 vs Davey Grant +105 

I’ll gladly take Grant here as I don’t trust Taveras. Taveras got his revenge against  Sidey in his first UFC fight who he lost to on Contender Series, and while he’s a good  striker, I loved what I saw from Grant in his last fight against Daniel Marcos.

Grant lost  a split to Marcos, but he’s been the first one to really push Marcos, land a lot of strikes  and do real damage. His cardio looked good, and he has a submission game that Taveras does not.

Grant’s kicks are going to be a big weapon for him, and I expect the  UFC veteran to hold his own on the feet, and win a round or two with his ground game. 

Taveras has good striking, but I’m not sure he’s a lot better than Grant so don’t be surprised if Taveras gets humbled in this one.

Miranda Maverick -425 vs Jamey Lyn Horth +330 

I love Maverick in this fight as her grappling and wrestling is going to be too much for  Horth. Horth is coming off of two split decision fights agaisnt Hardy and Petrovic, and I think Maverick runs through both of them.

Horth’s striking isn’t that great, and she stands tall which I think will make the shoot-ins for Maverick easier.

Maverick’s 3 UFC losses are one of the worst decisions in UFC history to Maycee Barber, a decision win  to Blanchfield who is a Top 5 fighter, and to Jasudavicius where she got poked in the  eye and was seeing double the entire fight.

She’s cruised in her other 6 fights to wins, and I just don’t see much upside from Horth here. Maybe if she had great striking to keep Maverick at distance or if she had an amazing clinch game, I would give her a better chance, but I just haven’t seen those weapons from her.

Maverick will get this to the ground, wrap up a body triangle or some other type of control and grind out rounds en route to a win.

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Fernando Lima -240 vs Miles Johns +200 

Lima should have the striking advantage, but I’m worried about laying this price  because of John’s wrestling.

Lima is a really quick guy on the feet, and he’ll be able to  land kicks and punches, and he’ll need that speed to stay away from Johns, and if he does he could make this look like a big mismatch.

However, if Johns can make this  fight dirty, get some clinching and wrestling working, he’s got a chance to steal some  rounds.

Lima is coming off a nice submission win against Naimov, which was a nice  win, but Naimov was able to hold top position in the first round, and I believe Johns is  better than Naimov on the ground.

I like Lima to win this fight, but the price is a bit too high for my liking. This could be a solid live bet spot. If Johns gets the wrestling going,  he could be a live dog, or if Johns has a good first round and gets a bit tired, take Lima. Pre-fight is a pass for me.

Sean Woodson -166 vs Fernando Padilla +140 

Woodson hasn’t lost his last six fights, and yet I still don’t like betting on him. He’s so  tall, and his arms and legs are long that he can hit opponents from way far out, but it  always feels underwhelming.

You have to get inside on Woodson and not let him land  those leg and body kicks or he’ll win the rounds as his strikes just look great to the  judges.

I’m a Fernando Padilla fan, and I still say he won the fight against Kyle Nelson, which is his only loss in the UFC so I’ll take a shot with him to pull the upset.

He submitted Luis Pajuelo, and knocked out Erosa, and he has long legs and arms like Woodson does, and I think he’ll be able to land some good shots on Woodson.

He’s a  guy who searches for finishes, and I think that kind of aggression is the way to beat Woodson. He’ll take some chances, and I think he makes this fight uncomfortable and  messy for Woodson, he’s worth a look as an underdog.

Joel Alvarez -375 vs Drakkar Klose +295 

Alvarez by violence in this one. Klosehas done a nice job coming back from the scary injury as he’s won four straight, but this is a massive step up for him, and I don’t think he has the weapons to slow down Alvarez.

Klose just beat Joaquim Silva, but Silva was on  his back foot most of the fight, and honestly, Klose didn’t do a ton with it as it went to  decision.

Alvarez’s losses are to wrestlers/grapplers who can control him on the  ground, and everyone else he obliterates on the ground. His pressure will push Klose  back, and Klose will eat shots and either get finished on the feet or Alvarez will get it on the ground where he dominates.

Alvarez’s last fight against Brener was a fantastic performance as he got the finish in round three showing he has the cardio to get late finish, I’ll take Alvarez by finish in this one.

Michael Johnson -185 vs Ottman Azaitar +154 

This is a strange fight as Azaitar is kill or be killed, and his fights are super exciting and  fast, and Michael Johnson is the exact opposite.

Johnson was just in a terrible fight  where he beat Darius Flowers, who is awful, and he couldn’t even do much damage to  him despite Flowers completely gassing and having no offense.

Azaitar has been  finished in the first round in his last two fights as he has no striking defense, but  Johnson is 38 years old, and I don’t think he has the power to KO the chinny Azaitar.

I think this is a sneaky fight to go over 1.5 rounds as Azaitar has been fighting guys with KO power, and I don’t think Johnson has it.

Don’t be surprised if Johnson mixes in a  takedown or two early on and this fight goes longer than people expect. No opinion on  the winner, but overs is how I would look at this fight.

Navajo Stirling -500 vs Tuco Tokkos +380 

Here are my notes on Stirling from Contender Series: Fade Machine. Slow striking. No output, no combinations, did not handle pressure well. No set up on shots, eyes closed  on strikes, low volume. Bad footwork.

That being said, Tokkos was truly awful in his UFC debut as he got taken down and finished immediately in the first round.

I went  back and watched Tokkos’s older fight, and his one previous to his UFC debut featured  one of the most gruesome arm injuries you’ll ever see in a fight as Tokkos picked him  up and slammed him. Before that, Tokkos beat a 1-7 fighter in a “fight” that was  ridiculous to make.

The point is, Tokkos is terrible, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he shoots takedowns, and if he gets them, he might be able to hold control for a bit, but Stirling is young and athletic, and while he needs a lot of work, he’s better than Tokkos. No chance I’m laying -500 though, just take this fight to not go the distance.

Daniel Marcos -170 vs Adrian Yanez +142 

Yanez KO’d Salvador in his last fight breaking a two fight losing streak, but Salvador is  a joke, and when Yanez has fought polished fighters, he’s lost, and he’s been finished by Rob Font and Jonathan Martinez.

Yanez is a power striker, and when he lands, he  lands with power, but that’s about all he has. He doesn’t really set up his strikes, he  

doesn’t have kicks, he doesn’t have wrestling, and if he doesn’t KO Marcos, I think  Marcos works him for three rounds.

Marcos has a solid striking game that is more  sophisticated than Yanez’s, and I think Marcos can avoid the early big strikes from Yanez. This is a really price in my opinion, I love Marcos here.

Vitor Petrino -298 vs Dustin Jacoby +240 

I didn’t realize Jacoby is 1-4 in his last five fights, and his win is over Kennedy  Nzechukwu, not something to write home about. Jacoby has a lot of miles on his body,  and he’s a kickboxer fighter that just hasn’t been getting it done, and he got knocked out  in June by Reyes.

I correctly predicted Petrino would lost to Anthony Smith as he has  holes in his game, and submission defense was one of them as Anthony Smith showed us when he submitted him.

Jacoby doesn’t submit anyone so this fight will take place on the feet mostly, and while Petrino has power, he needs more volume as he moves up.

Petrino can clinch and even get a takedown in this fight if he sees the opportunity,  and I’m just out on Dustin Jacoby at this point.

It’s an expensive price, but the loss for Petrino against Smith was probably a good thing as he needed a bit of a reality check, and I expect him to come back strong and get the win here.

Manel Kape -340 vs Bruno Silva +270 

Kape is an interesting fighter as he might have blown his chance at a title shot for a  while with his loss to Mokaev, and he’s the source of a lot of drama so he’s going to need to have impressive and exciting fights to get on the good graces of the UFC, and this could be a really fun fight.

Both guys are going to strike so whoever gets going  early will slow the other one down with damage, and I think Kape is just going to  outclass Silva.

Silva is coming off a KO win against Cody Durden, but Silva got hit a lot  in the first round, and Durden isn’t exactly known for his striking. Silva also got taken down and worked on the ground before he landed a great uppercut which got Durden out of there, but Kape is so much better than Durden, and I just see Silva not landing nearly as many strikes as Kape.

Kape could use a highlight finish as his last two wins were by decision, and I think he can get it if he’s aggressive. Silva’s level of competition hasn’t been great, this will be too much for him. Kape by Dec/KO in this one.

Billy Quarantillo -162 vs Cub Swanson +136 

This could be a Fade The Old Guy theory as Cub Swanson is 41 years old, Swanson  won two fights ago, but even he said it was a terrible decision, and he lost a split decision to Andre Fili last fight so while I think he still has some gas left in the tank, it’s  tough to see his upside.

He doesn’t have KO power thise days, and he’s not a  submission guy who he’ll have to outwork Billy Q for three rounds. Billy Q lost to Zalal in March, but he tried to fight with an injury, and it didn’t go well for him as he got no offense going, and Zalal submitted him easily in the 2nd.

When Billy is at his best, he’s  landing jabs and kicks to wear down opponents, and while I think he should be able to do that here, I think this fight is going to be really close going into the 3rd, and Cub Swanson wasn’t exhausted in the third round in his last fight, and I don’t know how  healthy or in shape Billy Q is going to be.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the bet is  Swanson here. If Billy Q isn’t 100% again, Swanson can steal an early round and in round three, it’s anyones fight.

Maybe a live bet is good on this fight to see if someone  is fading faster than the other, but pre-fight it’s Swanson at plus money.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Joaquin Buckley -275 vs Colby Covington +225

I’m of the opinion that Colby Covington is done as a top guy, and he may be done as a  UFC fighter soon. He fights once a year, and the wear and tear from the fights and the weight cuts look like they’ve caught up to him. His wins since 2019 are a rib injury to Tyron Woodley, who was done as a fighter and Jorge Masvidal, who was done as a fighter.

Colby was awful last December against Leon Edwards, as he looked slow and  out of shape, and got no offense going at all. If he’s that slow and lathargic, Buckley is  going to have a field day against him as his speed and power will surely get to Colby where he can land big shots.

This is a five round fight, and Colby knows how to  manage his cardio for these fights so I do worry that Buckley can gas himself if he uses too much energy, but I just don’t see any upside for Colby now. Buckley is the easy pick for me.

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