UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsarukyan Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds December 2

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for December 2nd with Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan headlining the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the Moody Center, Austin, TX.

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Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, December 2	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Beneil Dariush +245 vs Arman Tsarukyan -305
Rounds:	3.5 Rounds (Over -130 / Under +110)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	Moody Center in Austin, TX
TV:	ESPN/ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Jamey-Lyn Horth -135 v Veronica Hardy

Both these women are coming off of wins, but both beat two women who I think aren’t UFC caliber in Hailey Cowan and Juliana Miller, so I don’t think Horth or Hardy are amazing fighters, and the easiest bet in this fight is to take it to go the distance.

Both are clinch and wrestle style fighters, and they are very even so I don’t see where any threat of a finish comes from.

If Hardy couldn’t finish Miller, she isn’t finishing Horth, and Horth has a lot of finishes on her resume, but not to UFC caliber opponents. No opinion on who wins, but I will be taking this to go the distance.

Wellington Turman -205 v Jared Gooden +170

I’m not a big fan of Turman, but he should and better win this fight. Gooden is terrible, and I can’t believe he’s fighting in the UFC.

He holds his hands at his hips and only raises them to throw strikes that probably aren’t going to land, and in his last fight Carlston Harris took him down several times and held him there.

That should be the path to victory for Turman here as his wrestling and takedowns will lead to long stretches of control time and damage on the ground which should get him the victory here.

This isn’t a fight that features two great fighters, but Gooden is certainly worse than Turman, take Turman.

Rodolfo Bellato -425 v Ihor Potieria +330

Potieria has fought three times in the UFC, and beat Mauricio Rua in Rua’s retirement fight when he was 40 years old, and then celebrated like a jackass in the ring.

He was rewarded by getting Carlos Ulberg as his next opponent, and Ulbert knocked him out in two minutes. Potieria has been knocked out in two out of his three UFC fights, and he has cardio issues that are going to be a big problem here.

Potieria has power, but only for a few minutes and Bellato is going to clinch and push Potieria against the fence and look for the takedown and if he weathers the early storm, his cardio will standup and Potieria will melt and get finished.

I hate laying -425 on Bellato so I would take under 2.5 rounds in this one. If Potiera is going to win, it will be by an early finish, and if he doesn’t get the early finish Bellato will wear him down and win by KO or submission when Potieria has no energy left. Take the under.

Melquizael Costa -230 v Steve Garcia +190

This should be a really fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, and while I think Costa squeaks out a close win, there’s no way I’m laying -230 on him.

Garcia has won two fights in a row by KO, and has showed really great power in those wins so I’m not counting him out of this fight.

Costa certainly has the speed advantage on the feet, and his movement and kicks are going to be big weapons for him, but if Garcia closes the distance and gets Costa in the clinch, he can land big shots that will slow Costa down.

Garcia by KO could be an interesting prop because I don’t think Garcia can win a decision, and Costa by decision could be another way to bet this fight if you believe in Costa, but from a betting perspective, I will sit this one out.

Drakkar Klose -130 v Joe Solecki +110

One of the funny things about Joe Solecki is that his last fight got cancelled so he ended up fighting Carl Deaton, and his opponent that cancelled earlier this year was Benoit Saint-Denis.

So he went from a sure-fire loss, probably by finish, and instead got to submit Carl Deaton for the win. Solecki is 5-1 in the UFC with his loss coming to Jared Gorden a couple of years ago.

Solecki looks to take fights to the ground or just get on the back of his opponents and look for submissions or just control the fight on the ground.

It’s an interesting matchups as he faces Klose, and this will be Klose’s third fight since the neck injury and while he looks back to his normal self, in his last fight against Rafa Garcia, Garcia was able to take him down and control him at times.

The ref stood them up once when Garcia was in top control for a long time, and that was a gift to Klose. His striking is better than Solecki’s, but if this fight gets to the 2nd and 3rd rounds, Solecki’s cardio and wrestling game will take over and he can absolutely tire out Klose to win those rounds.

Klose will need to stuff takedowns, and if he does, he’ll win the striking battle and possible get the KO, but I think he’s going to spend too much time and energy trying to stuff Solecki’s offense. I think Solecki eventually gets the takedown and wears out Klose and goes on to win a close decision.

Zach Reese -238 v Cody Brundage +195

Zach Reese is coming off a very quick win on Contender Series, and that’s how all of his fights have gone so far in his young career.

He’s difficult to handicap because of all his early finishes and we haven’t seen his cardio tested due to his early submission wins, but Brundage isn’t one to test anyones cardio as he has basically none.

This is my personal opinion, but Brundage is an embarassment at this point. He put in no effort when he lost to Dumas, and in his last fight he was getting his brakes beaten off before the opponent grazed the back of his head and he put on an Oscar winning performance saying he couldn’t continue, and he walked out of the octagon a winner when his opponent got disqualified.

He’s a joke, and Reese should beat him as his submission game looks fantastic, and he certainly looks like the more motivated and professional fighter.

Brundage is a joke who has no cardio, and no offensive weapons outside of a random guillotine choke, no way I’m betting on him, but Reese will definitely be in a parlay for me.

Julia Avila -162 v Miesha Tate +136

The UFC certainly wants to give Miesha Tate a fight she can win. I had completely forgot about Julia Vila who hasn’t fought in 2.5 years due to her having a baby and taking a long layoff, so right off the bat the long layoff worries me, but I still lean for her to win.

Tate is way past her prime, and has one win since 2016, and it was to Marion Reneau who had lost 5 in a row and then retired with a pro record of 9-8. Her last fight against Murphy, she looked so slow and had no power on her punches and I can’t believe she’s gotten better as she’s now 37 years old.

The best thing to do with this fight is to not bet it because I have no clue what Avila will look like after a 2.5 year layoff, but I’m certainly not betting money on Miesha Tate, and while I don’t see a finish in this fight, nothing would surprised me in this fight. Save your money and bet it elsewhere.

Joaquim Silva -310 v Clay Guida +250

UFC fan favorite Clay Guida loves to wrestle, take fights to the ground and grind out wins, but at age 41 I just don’t know if he can still do that for three rounds.

He just lost to Rafa Garcia where the entire fight took place on the feet and Guida got pieced up en route to a loss. I don’t know if he’s going to try and stay on the feet with Silva, but I’m not impressed with Silva.

He got dominated by Tsarukyan, and he was knocked out by Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Haqparast, and his only win since 2018 was when he knocked out Jesse Ronson who got busted for massive steroid use, and that was his return fight and it turns out he’s terrible without the roids.

I won’t lay -310 on Silva here, and I actually think there’s a bit of value on Guida as his cardio is still sharp, and if he takes it to the ground I think he could win two rounds and pull the upset. I won’t bet this fight, but don’t be surprised if Guida wins as the underdog here.

Punahele Soriano -270 v Dustin Stoltzfus +220

Soriano is a strong guy who is a low volume striker, but he has power behind his shots for sure, and his cardio falls off fast once you get to the later part of round two. Soltzfus is a striker with not much power, but he does have wrestling and grappling in his arsenal and he has better cardio than Soriano.

The thing with this fight is that both these guys aren’t good, and this could be a loser leaves town fight as Stoltzfus is 1-4 in his UFC career and Soriano is 1-3 in his last four, and the guys that these two beat are bad.

There’s just no chance I lay -270 on Soriano who doesn’t throw a ton of punches, and who’s cardio I don’t trust. That being said, the only reason Stoltzfus is in the UFC is because he beat Joe Pyfer on Contender Series in 2020, but Pyfer broke his arm in that fight and they stopped the fight.

This is low level fighting for the UFC, and Stoltzfus is the only way you can play this as I could see him winning rounds two and three when Soriano’s cardio falls off. That being said, I won’t bet this fight.

Sean Brady -130 v Kelvin Gastelum +110

Brady’s lack of standup game has been a bit exposed the last two fights, and I think that’s going to be a big problem for him in this fight. Brady beat Chiesa with his wrestling, but we saw Chiesa have really good moments on the feet, and in Brady’s next fight he got knocked out by Belal Muhammad and it wasn’t just one crazy shot that got him.

He was completely overwhelmed, and could not get out of trouble, and Gastelum is coming off a war on the feet against Chris Curtis that he desperately needed to win as he was on a 1-5 run going into that fight, but his 5 losses were to beasts in the division.

Gastelum looked fantastic and said he changed a lot of things up, and if he strikes like that in this fight I think he wins.

Brady is going to have to get Gaselum down and eat away minutes on the ground because Gastelum’s power and and accuracy with this strikes will certainly melt Brady if it stays on the feet for extended periods of time. I think this is a bad matchup for Brady, and I love the price here. Gastelum is the pick for me.

Rob Font -135 v Deiveson Figueiredo +114

Figueirdo’s last three fights have been against the same guy (Brandon Moreno), and he’s moving up a weight class so this will be interesting to see how he looks.

Figueiredo has always had elite striking and an elite ground game at flyweight, but will it translate to bantam weight where Font will be much taller and longer?

Font will have the better boxing, but Font’s takedown defense is horrible and I’m guessing that’s what Figueiredo will be going for.

Cory Sandhagen was injurred in his last fight against Font, and still took him down over and over en route to a win so if Figueiredo wants to take that route I think he wins the fight.

If he wants to try and box with Font, I think Font’s reach and accuracy will keep Figueiredo at distance and he’ll piece up Figueiredo for three rounds.

As much as I like fading Rob Font, I actually think he wins here as I think Figueiredo is going to have trouble adjusting to the size difference, and I just don’t trust the 35 year old to have success moving up a weight division this late in his career.

Font is the pick here, but that takedown defense makes me nervous so it won’t be a big play for me.

Jalin Turner -230 v Bobby Green +190

Bobby Green is coming off a crazy KO of Grant Dawson before the fight even got started so a quick turnaround makes sense for him here, and Jalin Turner taking this on short notice has me concerned about this -230 price.

Last fight, he had Dan Hooker beat and Hooker made an incredible comeback with a broken arm to steal the win from Turner, and that lack of killer instinct in that fight was eye opening as it didn’t seem to bother Turner that much.

Turner has incredible potential and weapons, but the fact is he’s only 13-7 in his career and he’s lost two straight split decisions when he stepped up in competition.

He’s the better wrestler, but can he control Green for long stretches of time, and how will he deal with the unorthodox jabs and striking of Green?

Green shocked the world as a big underdog vs Grant Dawson, and I wouldn’t put it past him to be in better shape, and jab and strike his way to a decision win against Jalin Turner who may not be 100% in shape and ready for a fighter like Green. Green is a great play at +190.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Beneil Dariush +245 vs Arman Tsarukyan -305

I’m surprised that Tsarukyan is this big of a favorite. Dariush is coming off a loss to Charles Oliviera so now he’s a big underdog?

Tsarukyan is an amazing figher who controls his opponent with his wrestling and control, and he has the weapons and talent to do it to Dariush, but Tsarukyan lost to Mateusz Gamrot, and Dariush beat Gamrot as Dariush was able to thwart the advances and wrestling of Gamrot and make it a stand up fight where Dariush Flourishes.

Tsarukyan has only lost to Makhachev and Gamrot in the UFC, but I thought his last fight against Joaquim Silva was bizarre as Silva is not very good and it took Tsarukyan til late in round three to get the finish.

If he fights like that, Dariush can easily win, but I think Tsarukyan will be laser focused in this one. Tsarukyan will be able to look at the Dariush-Gamrot fight and see where Gamrot messed up chances to win the fight, and Tsarukyan won’t make those mistakes as closing the distance and not letting Dariush tee off with this strikes will be the key to victory.

I like taking overs in this fight as Tsarukyan is going to have trouble finishing someone like Dariush, and if Tsarukyan turns this into a wrestling match, Dariush won’t be able to get a finish either. Look for Tsarukyan to win with lots of control time as he frustrates Dariush for a majority of the fight.

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