UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs Green Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds October 7

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for October 7 with Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green headlining the event in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, October 7	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Grant Dawson -410 vs Bobby Green +315
Rounds:	1.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +135)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Montana De La Rosa +110 vs JJ Aldrick -130

This fight is a tough one to call, but the value is with Montana De La Rosa at plus money if you’re looking for a side to bet. However, the best way to bet this fight is to take the fight to go the distance.

These two have finishes on their record, and both have been finished, but when these two match up against each other I think they’re so evenly matched that I don’t see a finish in this one.

De La Rosa was finished by Tatiana Suarez, but Suarez is a finisher, and De La Rosa finished Ariane Lipski, but the last three losses for Lipski were finishes.

JJ Aldrich finished Na Liang in her last fight, but Liang is terrible and always gets finished. I see the clinch and takedown games as equal here, and it looks like a fight that will go the scorecards for me.

Mateus Mendonca -258 vs Nate Maness +210

Mendonca was handed his first loss of his career in his UFC debut to Javid Basharat, no shame in that loss as Basharat is legit contender.

Mendonca fought well and showed his potential, and this is a step down in competition that should suit Mendonca well. Mendonca has good striking, but Basharat showed holes in his striking defense and his grappling and ground game that he will surely learn from.

It says a lot for Mendonca that Basharat complimented him in the post-fight interveiw as Basharat is very honest in rhoaw interviews.

Maness has dropped two straight fights, and hasn’t looked good in those fights, especially the way he was dominated against Tagir Ulanbekov in a first round submission.

I don’t like Maness’s striking, but he does have good experience and a couple of good wins on his resume and while I think Mendonca gets the win, the odds are way too high for my liking. This fight is a pass for me for betting purposes.

Kanako Murata -325 vs Vanessa Demopoulos +260

Kanako Murata hasn’t fought in a year and a half after breaking her arm in a fight against Jandiroba, but if she stays healthy in this fight she will wrestle her way to victory here.

Murata is a fantastic wrestler, and while Demopoulos is a great athlete, and a decent fighter, she won’t be able to keep Murata off her.

Demopoulos will have to try and keep this on the feet and win a striking battle, but her striking isn’t great and it’s a bit wild and inconsistent.

Demopoulos prefers to wrestle and grapple, but unfortunately for her, she’s fighting someone who’s just better at the strongest parts of her game. Murata is a great parlay piece for this card.

Johnny Munoz Jr -115 vs Aoriqileng -105

I like Johnny Munoz in this fight. He showed the hole in his game in his last fight when Daniel Santos took him down and won by taking top control and holding it, but I don’t think Aoriqileng can do that and on the feet I like Munoz.

Aoriqileng has two wins in the UFC, and both of them are long gone from the UFC, and we saw him get knocked out on the feet in his last fight.

He just doesn’t have good striking defense, and the shot that knocked him out didn’t look like the most powerful shot ever so I wonder if his chin is pretty suspect right now.

He throws a good leg kick, but doesn’t protect himself from counters, and Munoz should have the speed advantage as well. I don’t see much upside in Aoriqileng, I’ll take Munoz in this one.

Chris Guiterrez +164 vs Montel Jackson -198

I thought Guiterrez really blew it in his last fight against Pedro Munhoz as he let Munhoz walk him down and control him with leg kicks and forward pressure. It was a bad performance, and I’m guessing he won’t let that happen again.

Montel Jackson has a good record in the UFC, but has not faced great competition, and he has good striking, and he can initiate the clinch which makes this strange dynamic for his fights as they can go from exciting to boring and boring to exciting instantaneously.

I’ll take a shot on the underdog here as Guiterrez didn’t get beat because he lacked power or was clearly outclassed, he lost by not coming forward and letting the other fighter dictate the pace. Those are things he can fix and I think he will.

He’s a live dog with good leg kicks that can soften up Jackson’s forward movement, and I’ll take him to win this one.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz -170 vs Diana Belbita +142

Karolina Kowalkiewicz has had a really nice resurgence as she lost five fights in a row, but then won three straight and I think she wins easily here agianst Diana Belbita. Kowalkiewicz will have the much better striking as it’s more crisp, faster and more controlled.

I’m not impressed with anything that Belbita does as she’s only beat bad competition, and she can be taken down and she can lose striking battles with anyone who has mediocre to good striking offense.

At 37 years old, Karolina still has gas left in the tank and I think she makes it four wins in a row here. Overs in the fight are a good play as well as I don’t think Karolina will get the finish so maybe Karolina by decision is a good play, but at a reasonable -170 price, I’ll just take the moneyline.

Bill Algeo -135 vs Alexander Hernandez +114

Really good matchmaking here, and the odds are spot on in my opinion. Bill Algeo is 3-1 in his last four, but the loss was when he injurred his shoulder in the third round against Andre Fili.

Alexander Hernandez is coming off a decision win against Jim Miller, but he had lost two in a row before that. Hernandez is fighting at featherweight now, and in both featherweight fights, he really absorbed a ton of damage on the feet while giving out plenty of his own, and Algeo is fairly similar in that style.

Algeo can dish it out, but can get lit up at times as well, but I do like him to win this fight. I believe he’ll have a takedown or two in this fight, and I just haven’t liked how bad Hernandez has looked with striking defense.

This could be a bloody mess of a fight, and while it should be fun to watch it’s difficult to bet. I wouldn’t play a distance play in this fight, but I do like Algeo to win using his striking and takedowns.

Philipe Lins +120 vs Ion Cutelaba -142

First things first…it’s a Cutelaba fight so take it to not go the distance. Cutelaba has one fight to go the distance since 2016, and only one fight in his last four has made it out of round one.

Philip Lins fights can be boring as he likes to push guys against the fence and stay there a while, but he will get involved in some good punching exchanges, and he’ll throw leg kicks to set up his shoots.

I don’t think Cutelaba will allow Lins to hold him against the cage for long, and cardio is going to be interesting if these guys go hard early in the fight and don’t get the finish.

Drew Dober -470 vs Ricky Glenn +360

It’s pretty hard to see Ricky Glenn pulling the upset after how bad he was against Giagos in his last fight. The fight only lasted 1:35, but Glenn looked slow and sloppy and it cost him as he got knocked out.

Dober’s power should get through to Glenn’s chin, and unless Glenn has figured out how to hit as hard at Matt Frevola did in Dober’s last loss, I don’t see a path to victory for him unless Glenn can somehow implement the wrestling over three rounds.

It’s just hard to see Glenn getting Dober down and finishing him or winning three rounds before Dober sparks him on the feet.

If you don’t want to use Dober ML as a bet, you could wait and take Dober ITD or even Dober Round 1 when props come out. Taking the fight not to go the distance or under 2.5 would also be a safe parlay piece.

Alex Morono +142 vs Joaquin Buckley -170

Joaquin Buckley made a smart move by dropping to welterweight after losing to Imavov and Chris Curtis, and he looked much more at home when he fought Andre Fialho getting the 2nd round KO. He still had his power, but his speed was better and he’s not fighting guys that hit as hard.

I think Alex Morono is always undervalued as he’s won five out of six, and his loss was a very short notice fight that he took while he was basically sitting on his couch, but his wins are not impressive as three of the guys are out of the UFC one guy is almost 40, and the other has lost three out of four.

Morono has good movement, and decent striking, but I’m a believer in Buckley at this weight class. Morono has one KO win in his last 10 fights and that was against the corpse of Donald Cerrone so I don’t think he can tough Buckley hard enough to slow him down.

Buckley will have the power advantage for sure, and I don’t know if will be enough to finish Morono, but I do think the speed and power will be enough to get the win by delivering the most damage. -170 is a good number, it’s worth a play in my opinion.

Joe Pyfer -430 vs Abdul Razak Alhassan +300

I think this is a terrible matchup for the 37 year old Alhassan.  Alhassan has heavy hands that have a lot of power, and he does have good kicks, but his movement isn’t fast, and he doesn’t throw a lot to set up his power strikes. 

He’s won two fights out of his last six, and they were to a couple of bad opponents who have lots of holes in their game.  Joe Pyfer is on the rise, and I’m a believer in his skillset. 

He has power to go toe to toe with Alhassan, but he also is more active on the feet, and has more speed by moving around and that should help him set up his strikes better than Alhassan. 

Alhassan needs his opponents to be flat-footed to land his big shots, and Pyfer won’t just stand still.  The one worry could be Pyfer’s cardio as we haven’t seen a long fight from him, but with how hard these two strike I don’t think this will go into later rounds. 

I think Pyfer is the real deal, and I believe we will see his game improve each fight, and he’ll show yet another step forward with his win here.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Grant Dawson -410 vs Bobby Green +315

The biggest question in this fight is will Grant Dawson be able to get a hole of Bobby Green, wrestle him down to the ground, and keep him there. If he can, it will be a walk in the park for Dawson.

If Green can work his jab to keep Dawson at distance, and stuff the first couple takedowns, Green has a really good chance to win a striking battle. In my humble opinion, I don’t think he has a chance to stop Dawson’s takedowns.

Dawson has been dominating his fights as he is 8-0-1 in the UFC, and he beat elite wrestler Mark Madsen, and he just had his most impressive performane to date by dominating Damir Ismafulov, handing him his second loss ever.

Bobby Green get credit for his great takedown defense, but he hasn’t fought anyone like Grant Dawson (I’m ignoring the Makhachev fight that he took on a couple days notice), and he’s 3-4 in his last seven with two of his wins being against Al Iaquinta in his retirement fight, and Tony Feruson who should’ve retired several fights ago.

I actually think this -410 is too low as Dawson showed great cardio last fight, and once he gets Green on the ground and he locks in that tight body triangle, Green won’t be able to get up for the rest of the round. Dawson ML is a great parlay piece in my opinion.

Prediction: Grant Dawson -410 For a Parlay Piece

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